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  • The Culpepper Manifesto

    The Culpepper Manifesto
    By: Fineas
    Rating:



    He’s ours. A lot of people on this board are very strongly anti-Culpepper. The following should allay your concerns and help get you excited about our new QB.

    Culpepper has been the most productive QB in NFL history. When you account for his rushing numbers, his production has been absolutely phenomenal. Over his career, Culpepper has 164 total TDs in 81 games, an average of more than 2 TDs per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (429 in 242 games, an average of 1.77)
    Favre (408 in 225 games, an average of 1.81)
    P. Manning (253 in 128 games, an average of 1.97)
    K. Warner (121 in 73 games, an average of 1.65)

    In short, Culpepper is the most prolific TD scoring QB on a per game basis in NFL history.

    Next, look at total yards (rushing and passing). Culpepper has 22,639 total yards in 81 games, an average of 279.5 yards per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (61448 in 242 games, an average of 254 yards per game)
    Favre (55360 in 225 games, an average of 246 yards per game)
    P. Manning (33854 in 128 games, an average of 264.5 yards per game)
    K. Warner (19474 in 73 games, an average of 266.7 yards per game)

    So Culpepper is also the most productive QB in terms of yards from scrimmage in NFL history on a per game basis.

    Then compare his INTs to the aforementioned guys. Culpepper has 86 in 81 games, an average of 1.06 per game.

    Marino (1.04 per game)
    Favre (1.13 per game)
    P. Manning (1.015 per game)
    K. Warner (1.07 per game)

    So Daunte is the most productive QB (on a per game basis) in NFL history in terms of both yards and TDs. His interception rate is comparable to or better than any of the guys that are even close (and they're not that close).

    His completion percentage of 64.4 is the second-best in NFL history. And that is not in a dink-and-dunk West Coast offense. It’s not terribly surprising, as he holds the single season NCAA record for completion percentage at 73.4%.
    Physically, he has a lot more size and speed than any QB should be allowed to have. He's the size of a DE and runs like a fullback. His rushing numbers are second only to Michael Vick among QBs.

    Below are my responses to the criticisms I hear from the Culpepper haters:

    The Knee

    It is legitimate to be concerned about the knee, but this is an area we all need to defer to the doctors on. They are saying he is well ahead of schedule and will play next year. The trade hinges on his passing a physical, so if it goes through, that means the Fins docs say he’s OK. The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too). I can't think of a single QB whose career was ended or derailed by a kneee injury. I’ve asked in several threads if anyone could think of a single on and nobody came forward with any.
    In recent years, there has been virtually 100% recovery from knee injuries, including RBs, WRs and CBs who are much more dependent on their speed and cutting ability than a QB (even a mobile one) is. For those positions, the difference between 4.4 speed and 4.6 speed may be difference between star and scrub. Any loss int he ability to plant and cut on a dime fundamentally changes who that player is.

    Nonetheless, guys like Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, etc. have all come back as good as new. For a QB, even a mobile one, it is much less important. Even if Culpepper goes from a 4.7 40 guy to 4.8 or 4.9, it won't make a huge difference. When RBs are able to come back from hideous knee injuries, it seems like a stretch to say that Culpepper can't or won't.

    There is a long list of QBs who have played at a HOF level for years with “bad knees” – Marino, Namath, Elway, Stabler, etc.

    The Moss

    Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs.

    In other games, he was hurt and simply didn’t do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into the Pro Bowler this year, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.

    The 2005 INTs

    Culpepper had a very bad start to 2005. He had 8 picks in the first 2 games, but had 6 TDs and 4 INTs in the 4 games after that. He was playing for a new OC, with a new set of receivers and an OL that had lost its anchor, Pro Bowl center Matt Birk.

    True, Minnesota has not been a great team since he's been there, but they have consistently had one of the 5-6 worst defenses in the NFL. From 2000-04, the Vikes never had a defense that was better than 25th in the NFL. Even Marino had better defenses in the late 80s and early 90s. With a few exceptions, Minny had unremarkable running games during that time (especially if you exclude Culpepper's rushing numbers). Still, the Vikes were 39-41 during that time period, which is comparable to Marino's record from 1986-89 when the Fins defenses were bad (30-33). We all know that even a great QB cannot win with a bad defense.

    The Backups

    Some people argue that the fact that his backups have had success in Minny means he is a product of the system. When they make this argument, they usually selectively ignore the numbers of his backups who did not play well. Even so, the reality is that a lot of QBs will do well in a good offensive system, with a decent OL and some talent around him. The Viking backups success is hardly unique. Take a look at the QB ratings of the following backups, with the starter in parentheses:

    Steve Young (Montana) 108.9
    Steve Bono (Montana) 88.5
    Jeff Kemp (Montana) 85.7
    Scott Mitchell (Marino) 91.4
    Craig Erickson (Marino) 86.3
    Elvis Grbac (Young) 87.9
    Jeff Garcia (Young) 89.9
    Frank Reich (Kelly) 102.3
    Jim Sorgi (Manning) 99.1
    Matt Cassel (Brady) 89.4
    Marc Bulger (Warner) 101.5
    Trent Green (Warner) 101.8
    Bernie Kosar (Aikman) 92.7
    Rodney Peete (Aikman) 102.5
    Jason Garrett (Aikman) 83.3
    Billy Volek (McNair) 87.4

    The Vikes improvement in the 2nd half of the season last year was not because Brad Johnson was better. It was because the OL, which was recovering from the loss of Matt Birk and a rookie at G, started to gel as the season went on. The OL gave up 29 sacks in the first 6 games. They gave up only 23 in the next 10 games. The other reason was that the defense improved dramatically in the second half of the season.
    Intelligence

    First, and not that it is necessarily a true measure of intelligence, but Culpepper scored a 21 on the Wonderlic. This is better than Marino (14), McNabb (16), McNair (15), and a point less than Brett Favre (22). Obviously, the Wonderlic is not a foolproof indicator of the ability to understand NFL defenses.

    .

    In 2004, Culpepper's performance on 3rd down and blitzes was phenomenal. On 3rd downs, he completed 93 of 134 (69.4%), for 1391 yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to an absurd QB rating of 133.7. That year, on blitzes, he completed 101 of 159 (63.5%), for 1217, 15 TDs and 1 INT, which is a 115.7 rating. In the red zone, he completed 54 of 88 for 352 yards, 26 TDs and 2 INTs, for a rating of 158.2 (the maximum). These types of numbers simply are not possible if you can't read defenses and make good decisions. Do people think that every defense he faced was pure vanilla?

    Yes, last year he struggled, especially in those first 2 games. But his 2003 numbers in these categories are comparable to his 2004 numbers.

    3rd down -- 79/121, 1054, 12, 3 (Rating: 115.5)
    Blitz -- 60/103, 785, 9, 4 (Rating: 95.3)
    Red Zone -- 23/51, 147, 14, 2 (Rating: 126.8)

    For comparison sake, Gus's numbers in these categories last year are:

    3rd down -- 63/152, 813, 5, 5 (Rating: 56.2)
    Blitz -- 73/162, 866, 5, 4 (Rating: 61.9)
    Red Zone -- 28/65, 189, 12, 3 (Rating: 70.8)

    Remember, these are in essentially the same Linehan offense (which we say we are keeping).

    “Game Management”

    A lot of people talk about certain QBs being good game managers. I hear that a lot about Brees and some Gusketeers also like to claim that he was a good game manager. I think that, in most cases, that is just someone's way of pumping up a guy they like on the basis of some intangible that cannot be verified or disproven. Let's face it, with the exception of occasional audibles, the coaches call the plays. Most of what people refer to as game management is really a reflection of the plays called by the coaches, not anything the QB has done.

    That said, I think there is some QB "game management" in the way the guy plays on 3rd and 4th down. "Managing the game" basically boils down to how well the QB keeps the chains moving, which basically boils down to converting 3rd and 4th downs. Avoiding turnovers is another aspect of game management.

    I was only able to find stats for this for the past 2 seasons. Culpepper’s conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs has been excellent. Over the last 2 years, he has converted 98/196 (50%). This is the same as Payton Manning (119 of 238), but better than Brees (121/264 – 45.8%) and Brady (122/270 – 45.1%).
    The Draft Pick

  • #2
    Originally posted by Fins4Life
    The Culpepper Manifesto
    By: Fineas
    Rating:



    He’s ours. A lot of people on this board are very strongly anti-Culpepper. The following should allay your concerns and help get you excited about our new QB.

    Culpepper has been the most productive QB in NFL history. When you account for his rushing numbers, his production has been absolutely phenomenal. Over his career, Culpepper has 164 total TDs in 81 games, an average of more than 2 TDs per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (429 in 242 games, an average of 1.77)
    Favre (408 in 225 games, an average of 1.81)
    P. Manning (253 in 128 games, an average of 1.97)
    K. Warner (121 in 73 games, an average of 1.65)

    In short, Culpepper is the most prolific TD scoring QB on a per game basis in NFL history.

    Next, look at total yards (rushing and passing). Culpepper has 22,639 total yards in 81 games, an average of 279.5 yards per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

    Marino (61448 in 242 games, an average of 254 yards per game)
    Favre (55360 in 225 games, an average of 246 yards per game)
    P. Manning (33854 in 128 games, an average of 264.5 yards per game)
    K. Warner (19474 in 73 games, an average of 266.7 yards per game)

    So Culpepper is also the most productive QB in terms of yards from scrimmage in NFL history on a per game basis.

    Then compare his INTs to the aforementioned guys. Culpepper has 86 in 81 games, an average of 1.06 per game.

    Marino (1.04 per game)
    Favre (1.13 per game)
    P. Manning (1.015 per game)
    K. Warner (1.07 per game)

    So Daunte is the most productive QB (on a per game basis) in NFL history in terms of both yards and TDs. His interception rate is comparable to or better than any of the guys that are even close (and they're not that close).

    His completion percentage of 64.4 is the second-best in NFL history. And that is not in a dink-and-dunk West Coast offense. It’s not terribly surprising, as he holds the single season NCAA record for completion percentage at 73.4%.
    Physically, he has a lot more size and speed than any QB should be allowed to have. He's the size of a DE and runs like a fullback. His rushing numbers are second only to Michael Vick among QBs.

    Below are my responses to the criticisms I hear from the Culpepper haters:

    The Knee

    It is legitimate to be concerned about the knee, but this is an area we all need to defer to the doctors on. They are saying he is well ahead of schedule and will play next year. The trade hinges on his passing a physical, so if it goes through, that means the Fins docs say he’s OK. The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too). I can't think of a single QB whose career was ended or derailed by a kneee injury. I’ve asked in several threads if anyone could think of a single on and nobody came forward with any.
    In recent years, there has been virtually 100% recovery from knee injuries, including RBs, WRs and CBs who are much more dependent on their speed and cutting ability than a QB (even a mobile one) is. For those positions, the difference between 4.4 speed and 4.6 speed may be difference between star and scrub. Any loss int he ability to plant and cut on a dime fundamentally changes who that player is.

    Nonetheless, guys like Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, etc. have all come back as good as new. For a QB, even a mobile one, it is much less important. Even if Culpepper goes from a 4.7 40 guy to 4.8 or 4.9, it won't make a huge difference. When RBs are able to come back from hideous knee injuries, it seems like a stretch to say that Culpepper can't or won't.

    There is a long list of QBs who have played at a HOF level for years with “bad knees” – Marino, Namath, Elway, Stabler, etc.

    The Moss

    Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs.

    In other games, he was hurt and simply didn’t do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into the Pro Bowler this year, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.

    The 2005 INTs

    Culpepper had a very bad start to 2005. He had 8 picks in the first 2 games, but had 6 TDs and 4 INTs in the 4 games after that. He was playing for a new OC, with a new set of receivers and an OL that had lost its anchor, Pro Bowl center Matt Birk.

    True, Minnesota has not been a great team since he's been there, but they have consistently had one of the 5-6 worst defenses in the NFL. From 2000-04, the Vikes never had a defense that was better than 25th in the NFL. Even Marino had better defenses in the late 80s and early 90s. With a few exceptions, Minny had unremarkable running games during that time (especially if you exclude Culpepper's rushing numbers). Still, the Vikes were 39-41 during that time period, which is comparable to Marino's record from 1986-89 when the Fins defenses were bad (30-33). We all know that even a great QB cannot win with a bad defense.

    The Backups

    Some people argue that the fact that his backups have had success in Minny means he is a product of the system. When they make this argument, they usually selectively ignore the numbers of his backups who did not play well. Even so, the reality is that a lot of QBs will do well in a good offensive system, with a decent OL and some talent around him. The Viking backups success is hardly unique. Take a look at the QB ratings of the following backups, with the starter in parentheses:

    Steve Young (Montana) 108.9
    Steve Bono (Montana) 88.5
    Jeff Kemp (Montana) 85.7
    Scott Mitchell (Marino) 91.4
    Craig Erickson (Marino) 86.3
    Elvis Grbac (Young) 87.9
    Jeff Garcia (Young) 89.9
    Frank Reich (Kelly) 102.3
    Jim Sorgi (Manning) 99.1
    Matt Cassel (Brady) 89.4
    Marc Bulger (Warner) 101.5
    Trent Green (Warner) 101.8
    Bernie Kosar (Aikman) 92.7
    Rodney Peete (Aikman) 102.5
    Jason Garrett (Aikman) 83.3
    Billy Volek (McNair) 87.4

    The Vikes improvement in the 2nd half of the season last year was not because Brad Johnson was better. It was because the OL, which was recovering from the loss of Matt Birk and a rookie at G, started to gel as the season went on. The OL gave up 29 sacks in the first 6 games. They gave up only 23 in the next 10 games. The other reason was that the defense improved dramatically in the second half of the season.
    Intelligence

    First, and not that it is necessarily a true measure of intelligence, but Culpepper scored a 21 on the Wonderlic. This is better than Marino (14), McNabb (16), McNair (15), and a point less than Brett Favre (22). Obviously, the Wonderlic is not a foolproof indicator of the ability to understand NFL defenses.

    .

    In 2004, Culpepper's performance on 3rd down and blitzes was phenomenal. On 3rd downs, he completed 93 of 134 (69.4%), for 1391 yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to an absurd QB rating of 133.7. That year, on blitzes, he completed 101 of 159 (63.5%), for 1217, 15 TDs and 1 INT, which is a 115.7 rating. In the red zone, he completed 54 of 88 for 352 yards, 26 TDs and 2 INTs, for a rating of 158.2 (the maximum). These types of numbers simply are not possible if you can't read defenses and make good decisions. Do people think that every defense he faced was pure vanilla?

    Yes, last year he struggled, especially in those first 2 games. But his 2003 numbers in these categories are comparable to his 2004 numbers.

    3rd down -- 79/121, 1054, 12, 3 (Rating: 115.5)
    Blitz -- 60/103, 785, 9, 4 (Rating: 95.3)
    Red Zone -- 23/51, 147, 14, 2 (Rating: 126.8)

    For comparison sake, Gus's numbers in these categories last year are:

    3rd down -- 63/152, 813, 5, 5 (Rating: 56.2)
    Blitz -- 73/162, 866, 5, 4 (Rating: 61.9)
    Red Zone -- 28/65, 189, 12, 3 (Rating: 70.8)

    Remember, these are in essentially the same Linehan offense (which we say we are keeping).

    “Game Management”

    A lot of people talk about certain QBs being good game managers. I hear that a lot about Brees and some Gusketeers also like to claim that he was a good game manager. I think that, in most cases, that is just someone's way of pumping up a guy they like on the basis of some intangible that cannot be verified or disproven. Let's face it, with the exception of occasional audibles, the coaches call the plays. Most of what people refer to as game management is really a reflection of the plays called by the coaches, not anything the QB has done.

    That said, I think there is some QB "game management" in the way the guy plays on 3rd and 4th down. "Managing the game" basically boils down to how well the QB keeps the chains moving, which basically boils down to converting 3rd and 4th downs. Avoiding turnovers is another aspect of game management.

    I was only able to find stats for this for the past 2 seasons. Culpepper’s conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs has been excellent. Over the last 2 years, he has converted 98/196 (50%). This is the same as Payton Manning (119 of 238), but better than Brees (121/264 – 45.8%) and Brady (122/270 – 45.1%).
    The Draft Pick
    This is a great well though out post. I think Cullpepper will help the Dolphins win the AFC East next year, provided he is healthy.

    CP to you.
    NHL Blog at:NHL Blog by Medford Bronco!

    Comment


    • #3
      You guys should be good this season. Good luck.

      Comment


      • #4
        {yawn...} I'm still reading your post Fins4Life. I should be finished by the time Culpepper's knee is 60% healed. Which, according to my calculations is mid-December.

        Culpepper = Overpaid and overrated

        Comment


        • #5
          Culpepper to Miami . . .

          Now, I fully expect the patsies to become very familiar with the taste of Dolphin dust.

          -----

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by topscribe
            Now, I fully expect the patsies to become very familiar with the taste of Dolphin dust.

            -----
            The Dolphins have been Dust in the Wind for many many years. For Fins4Life, it will be the:

            same old song, just a drop of water in an endless sea

            All the Dolphins do, crumbles to the ground, though they refuse to see

            Dust in the wind, all the Dolphins are is dust in the wind

            Comment


            • #7
              i dont have time for novels.

              Fins you know ive said im actually glad the Fins picked up Pepp rather than the Raiders. i mean i like him, and was excited to hear when Raiders were in the running. but i'd rather they spend the money he wouldve got and use it to address multiple areas.

              Fins were already looking good, hope Pepp's ready when the season begins. im sure Brees is having second thoughts

              then again his bank account probably comforts him....
              sigpic

              Comment


              • #8
                Fins, I think you guys got a great player!

                Now, go out there and kick some Patsy arse!
                President of the GPA, Head of Mainland Europe Chapter




                formerly Officially Adopted by saltybuggah
                I adopted Skywalker

                I have been adopted by Chris Wade

                Comment


                • #9
                  That original post was insanely long.

                  Future posters please dont quote it.

                  A few posters may argue about how elite Culpepper is, but theres no question he an upgrade over Frerotten. I can see him putting up over 3,500 yards as a low end estimate.
                  You've got to know when to sack em...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by WorstTrollEver
                    {yawn...} I'm still reading your post Fins4Life. I should be finished by the time Culpepper's knee is 60% healed. Which, according to my calculations is mid-December.

                    Culpepper = Overpaid and overrated


                    Your calculations are wrong...he will be starting for us week one

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      maybe his stats are so great because he had Randy Moss

                      where is your Randy Moss?

                      you dont have one

                      so dont expect his stats to be that great

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        well good luck with him. I think the way he handled the situation in minnesota is BS. After this last season I dont think he wanted to be there at all. That coupled with the fact that he would have to learn a new offense and deal with a coach whose alot more strict than tice.

                        I hope he does well for you guys. And Worst troll is just pissed that you guys will own them
                        Glen Haven Fire

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BRONCOS_OWN_U16
                          maybe his stats are so great because he had Randy Moss

                          where is your Randy Moss?

                          you dont have one

                          so dont expect his stats to be that great

                          yeah his stats are fantastic cause he threw to randy moss every single play of every single game they played together
                          Glen Haven Fire

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BRONCOS_OWN_U16
                            maybe his stats are so great because he had Randy Moss

                            where is your Randy Moss?

                            you dont have one

                            so dont expect his stats to be that great

                            Chris Chambers is pretty good though.

                            I'd like to see how well he'd do with Culpepper under center.

                            Chambers had better numbers than Moss did last year didn't he?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by The Dark Knight
                              Chris Chambers is pretty good though.

                              I'd like to see how well he'd do with Culpepper under center.

                              Chambers had better numbers than Moss did last year didn't he?

                              not quite sure but moss still had 1000+ season
                              Glen Haven Fire

                              Comment

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