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  • The Larry Johnson misconception

    I know this isn't Orange and Blue related but it won't get any notice on the forum it probably belongs.

    Larry Johnson, as most of you know, had a fantastic season running the ball last year running for over 1700 yards and dominating many teams week in weak out. What many people think though, is that Larry Johnson only played 9 games last year, and given a full season of carries, he would definately break the 2000 yard barrier.

    Here's a stat that completely begs to differ.
    Larry Johnson had 336 carries last year.
    I know it might be hard to believe for the people who only got the sportscenter perspective of Larry Johnson, but let's compare that stat to the rest of the backs in the league.

    1 S. Alexander RB, SEA 370
    2 E. James RB, IND 360
    3 Tiki Barber RB, NYG 357
    4 C. Portis RB, WAS 352
    5 L. Tomlinson RB, SDG 339
    6 Rudi Johnson RB, CIN 337
    7 Larry Johnson RB, KAN 336

    Larry Johnson ranked in the top 10 in rush attempts last year as you can see. That's because he was apart of the Chiefs offense all seaso stealing carries from Holmes and starting in the 2nd half of the year. If we say that Johnson would have even more carries than the league leader, Alexander, and give him an extra 40, with his 5.2 avg, he would come close to 2000, at 1950 yards. Suffice it to say, he might get there, but there's no guarantee that

    1) He can sustain consecutive seasons with that kind of workload
    2) Can succeed without his two starting tackles
    3) Get that many oppurtunities.
    Blet

  • #2
    That's a good point. I have a feeling it will be a different story for him this year without Roaf, and starting all 16 games (not to mention the run stuffing D that both the Broncos and Chargers will bring to the table for a combined 4 games!).

    Comment


    • #3
      Maybe you should put it this way instead. I wouldn't look at his entire seasons stats. I would look at what he did in those 9 games and spread them out over an entire season:

      In his 9 starts he averaged:

      150.1 yards per game
      29 carries per game
      5.18 yards per carry

      Spread that out over an entire season and that equals:
      2401.6 yards
      464 carries

      Yes that is a heavy workload but Larry Johnson has not been pounded alot in his career as he did not play alot in college until his senior season and he did not play much in KC until 2005. I doubt he reaches 2400 yards but 2000 seems easily attainable for him.

      I wouldn't factor in the loss of our tackles too much. First of all, John Welbourn was never supposed to start at right tackle last year. Kevin Sampson was supposed to be the starter but he got injured in preseason and had an asthma attack in the bye week. Those two events effectively ended his season. Also, the loss of Roaf really doesn't affect Larry Johnson too much. Larry Johnson't production was about the same with or without Roaf in the game last year. Kyle Turley did very well in Houston on Saturday and will help out alot more than Jordan Black did last year. Our tackle situation is not near as bad as everybody thinks.
      "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

      It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by chargerlew
        That's a good point. I have a feeling it will be a different story for him this year without Roaf, and starting all 16 games (not to mention the run stuffing D that both the Broncos and Chargers will bring to the table for a combined 4 games!).
        Larry Johnson ran over the Chargers #1 rush defense for 131 yards and a 4.1 average. Larry Johnson ran over the Broncos #2 rush defense for 140 yards and a 4.7 average. He will not have any problems with doing that again this year.
        "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

        It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by kmartin575
          Maybe you should put it this way instead. I wouldn't look at his entire seasons stats. I would look at what he did in those 9 games and spread them out over an entire season:

          In his 9 starts he averaged:

          150.1 yards per game
          29 carries per game
          5.18 yards per carry

          Spread that out over an entire season and that equals:
          2401.6 yards
          464 carries

          Yes that is a heavy workload but Larry Johnson has not been pounded alot in his career as he did not play alot in college until his senior season and he did not play much in KC until 2005. I doubt he reaches 2400 yards but 2000 seems easily attainable for him.

          I wouldn't factor in the loss of our tackles too much. First of all, John Welbourn was never supposed to start at right tackle last year. Kevin Sampson was supposed to be the starter but he got injured in preseason and had an asthma attack in the bye week. Those two events effectively ended his season. Also, the loss of Roaf really doesn't affect Larry Johnson too much. Larry Johnson't production was about the same with or without Roaf in the game last year. Kyle Turley did very well in Houston on Saturday and will help out alot more than Jordan Black did last year. Our tackle situation is not near as bad as everybody thinks.
          Considering the NFL record for most rushing attempts in a season is 410 (Jamal Anderson - 1998), I highly doubt those would be realistic numbers for LJ.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by chargerlew
            Considering the NFL record for most rushing attempts in a season is 410 (Jamal Anderson - 1998), I highly doubt those would be realistic numbers for LJ.
            Agreed. Michael Bennett will get his fair share of carries. Still, even if you drop his number of carries to 400 and you use his average of 5.18 from last year he would have 2072 yards. I actually think LJ could break the record for most rushing attempts in a season if he stays healthy. The Chiefs plan to use LJ as a workhorse and run the ball alot.

            In the end however, I don't care all that much if LJ breaks 2,000. What I do care about is that in his pursuit of 2,000 yards he helps the team make the playoffs. That is the most important thing.
            "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

            It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by kmartin575
              . I doubt he reaches 2400 yards but 2000 seems easily attainable for him.
              Dreaming.....
              I wouldn't factor in the loss of our tackles too much... Also, the loss of Roaf really doesn't affect Larry Johnson too much. Larry Johnson's production was about the same with or without Roaf in the game last year. Kyle Turley did very well in Houston on Saturday and will help out alot more than Jordan Black did last year. Our tackle situation is not near as bad as everybody thinks.
              My god man... I've seen some funny posts that show fans with blinders on.. but YOU my friend.. are starting to compete with that lil Oakland dude that used to post here.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Ravage!!!
                Dreaming.....


                My god man... I've seen some funny posts that show fans with blinders on.. but YOU my friend.. are starting to compete with that lil Oakland dude that used to post here.
                Stats prove it. Last year, even without Willie Roaf starting at left tackle, Larry Johnson's production as far as yardage was about the same as it was with Willie Roaf in the game. That was with Jordan Black in the game at left tackle who sucks. Add in Kyle Turley at left tackle who is a hell of alot better than Black and we are doing just fine.

                I don't have the blinders on. I proved what I was saying with strong facts but of course you don't want it to be true so you call me a homer.
                "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

                It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by kmartin575
                  I actually think LJ could break the record for most rushing attempts in a season if he stays healthy. The Chiefs plan to use LJ as a workhorse and run the ball alot.
                  Have you ever heard of a man by the name of Earl Cambell? They used him like that, and shortened his career considerably, and he wasn't earning NEAR the kind of money that the players earn today. Herm Edwards just finished coaching one of the most durable and long lasting running backs in history... he understands the VALUE of having a quality back have a lasting career. There is no WAY the use him this much. DROP his carries to 400? My god man.....

                  Also.. if you don't think the loss of Roaf is going to hurt your production.. you better look at your record when he was out. If you are losing.. you have to throw more. If you the tackle that replaces him isn't as quality (and Turley looked WEAK and undersized out there on Saturday against the Titans, he did NOT look good at all. I hope to GOD he starts for you), it makes it easier to get to the QB, thus having to use less blitzes... thus keeping the LBs to contain Johnson. Larry isn't going to have NEAR the season he had. BUT.... he's still a TOP quality back in the NFL.. no doubt about it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Ravage!!!
                    Have you ever heard of a man by the name of Earl Cambell? They used him like that, and shortened his career considerably, and he wasn't earning NEAR the kind of money that the players earn today. Herm Edwards just finished coaching one of the most durable and long lasting running backs in history... he understands the VALUE of having a quality back have a lasting career. There is no WAY the use him this much. DROP his carries to 400? My god man.....

                    Also.. if you don't think the loss of Roaf is going to hurt your production.. you better look at your record when he was out. If you are losing.. you have to throw more. If you the tackle that replaces him isn't as quality (and Turley looked WEAK and undersized out there on Saturday against the Titans, he did NOT look good at all. I hope to GOD he starts for you), it makes it easier to get to the QB, thus having to use less blitzes... thus keeping the LBs to contain Johnson. Larry isn't going to have NEAR the season he had. BUT.... he's still a TOP quality back in the NFL.. no doubt about it.
                    How many times do I have to say it. Larry Johnson's production barely dropped last season without Roaf at left tackle so why would it this season?

                    Are you ****ing kidding me? Turley looked weak? I don't know what game you were watching. In the game I was watching Turley man-handled Mario Williams. In the game I was watching Turley knocked a defensive end to the ground on one play and then went on to block a blitzing linebacker. In the game I was watching Turley was solid in run blocking. What game were you watching? The fact is, Turley was not weak in that game. You want him to be weak so you try and rationalize it until you actually believe he was weak. Who is a Denver fan to call Turley undersized? He definitely isn't any smaller than Matt Lepsis or most of your other offensive lineman.
                    "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

                    It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by kmartin575
                      Stats prove it. Last year, even without Willie Roaf starting at left tackle, Larry Johnson's production as far as yardage was about the same as it was with Willie Roaf in the game. That was with Jordan Black in the game at left tackle who sucks. Add in Kyle Turley at left tackle who is a hell of alot better than Black and we are doing just fine.

                      I don't have the blinders on. I proved what I was saying with strong facts but of course you don't want it to be true so you call me a homer.
                      No. I think you have high hopes. I think that a LOT of things seem to just appear as though its "so easy" simply because of facts. There have been TONS and tons of VERY good RBs in the NFL with dynamic offensive lines. Yet, there have been very very few 2000yrd rushers. There is a reason for that. I heard the SAME things about Clinton Portis when he was last here, and I made the SAME points against Clinton as I am against Larry Johnson. They just don't go as "planned" when fightign down towards the end of a season. It looks easy to have fresh legs when you didn't start the season, and were resting... and didn't have the additional 7 games of beatings. They just don't work out that way, that simple. They never do.

                      Throw Allllllll the stats out the door..... and as far as Larry running as well as with Roaf as without him, your record tells the whole story how that would COMPLETELY change his running stats. If you HONESTLY feel that your offense is as effective with Kyle Turley instead of Willie Roaf.... then I think you are blinded.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by kmartin575
                        How many times do I have to say it. Larry Johnson's production barely dropped last season without Roaf at left tackle so why would it this season?

                        Are you ****ing kidding me? Turley looked weak? I don't know what game you were watching. In the game I was watching Turley man-handled Mario Williams. In the game I was watching Turley knocked a defensive end to the ground on one play and then went on to block a blitzing linebacker. In the game I was watching Turley was solid in run blocking. What game were you watching? The fact is, Turley was not weak in that game. You want him to be weak so you try and rationalize it until you actually believe he was weak. Who is a Denver fan to call Turley undersized? He definitely isn't any smaller than Matt Lepsis or most of your other offensive lineman.
                        Me? Did you read any reviews written by someone else OTHER than a Chiefs writer? Because I watched that game. I saw a SMALL tackle that had been trying ot make it at TE. I saw a guy that has quick feet.. but wasn't MAN handling ANYONE. Mario Williams, as EVERYONE has stated, was LOST out there. Turley blocking on the Rookie doesn't impress me. But like I said... I HOPE Kyle Turley starts at tacke for you guys.. I really REALLY do.

                        As far as him being small in comparison to our line.. nope. But you guys don't run the same type of offense OR blocking scheme. That lack of size WILL and does hurt him. Watch him try to put the weight back on... if he was so effective without it, then why would/will he need it? I live in KC area, I have the unfortunate curse of HAVING to see all the Chief crap around. Good luck with him *smiles*

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ravage!!!
                          No. I think you have high hopes. I think that a LOT of things seem to just appear as though its "so easy" simply because of facts. There have been TONS and tons of VERY good RBs in the NFL with dynamic offensive lines. Yet, there have been very very few 2000yrd rushers. There is a reason for that. I heard the SAME things about Clinton Portis when he was last here, and I made the SAME points against Clinton as I am against Larry Johnson. They just don't go as "planned" when fightign down towards the end of a season. It looks easy to have fresh legs when you didn't start the season, and were resting... and didn't have the additional 7 games of beatings. They just don't work out that way, that simple. They never do.

                          Throw Allllllll the stats out the door..... and as far as Larry running as well as with Roaf as without him, your record tells the whole story how that would COMPLETELY change his running stats. If you HONESTLY feel that your offense is as effective with Kyle Turley instead of Willie Roaf.... then I think you are blinded.
                          Our offense suffered without Roaf last year but that was more due to the passing game. Jordan Black coul dnot pass protect worth a damn. However, our running game did not suffer. The situation will be the same this year.
                          "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

                          It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by kmartin575
                            Our offense suffered without Roaf last year but that was more due to the passing game. Jordan Black coul dnot pass protect worth a damn. However, our running game did not suffer. The situation will be the same this year.
                            sure it will : )

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Ravage!!!
                              Me? Did you read any reviews written by someone else OTHER than a Chiefs writer? Because I watched that game. I saw a SMALL tackle that had been trying ot make it at TE. I saw a guy that has quick feet.. but wasn't MAN handling ANYONE. Mario Williams, as EVERYONE has stated, was LOST out there. Turley blocking on the Rookie doesn't impress me. But like I said... I HOPE Kyle Turley starts at tacke for you guys.. I really REALLY do.

                              As far as him being small in comparison to our line.. nope. But you guys don't run the same type of offense OR blocking scheme. That lack of size WILL and does hurt him. Watch him try to put the weight back on... if he was so effective without it, then why would/will he need it? I live in KC area, I have the unfortunate curse of HAVING to see all the Chief crap around. Good luck with him *smiles*
                              Turley is happy at his current weight. He feels that he is more athletic and mobile in the area of 285 pounds where he is at now. A guy such as Turley who understands what leverage and technique can do for a player can overcome a lack of size. Mario Williams easily outweighs Kyle Turley but like I said he got man-handled by Turley.
                              "And we all know that stats don't mean anything if you don't have the wins to back them up"-ChampWJ

                              It's a good thing Jay Cutler was a proven winner in college. Oh wait, nevermind.

                              Comment

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