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  1. #1
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    People need to get over the "Suh" effect

    Every time I go on this board I read "we need the next Suh" or "if we don't draft DL with #2 I'm breaking my tv" or my favorite, "D line or bust". Whenever anyone raises the possibility of drafting PP at 2, the arguments are always "whens the last time a team took a corner high and won a SB" and that the great teams "always draft DL high". Well, lets look at the D-linemen taken in the past decade in the top 5 picks:

    Mario Williams
    Gaines Adams
    Glenn Dorsey
    Chris Long
    Tyson Jackson
    Dewayne Robertson
    Julius Peppers
    Gerrard Warren
    Justin Smith
    Courtney Brown

    When I look at that list, I see three great players, two pretty good players and five busts. Even looking at the great players, Justin Smith has played on some mostly horrible defenses throughout his career, same with Mario Williams. Not to say that those guys are at fault, but to act like an elite Dl just totally turns your D around is wrong. Taking a DL in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing, and in fact Suh's case is only a very, very rare occasion.

    This isn't an anti-Fairley argument, and in fact I think that if he's there at two then Bowlen should be sprinting towards Goodell to hand in his pick. But if he's not there, there isn't any point in just picking Dareus or Bowers just to pick a DL because somehow picking a DL at the second pick will magically turn around our D. Newsflash: Dareus and Bowers aren't Suh, not even close, and we need to go defensive BPA which is PP, or just trade down.

  2. #2
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    I vote trade down. We don't need a corner, we need the best defensive linemen in the draft that we can find.

    Hooray, beer!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpholmes View Post
    Every time I go on this board I read "we need the next Suh" or "if we don't draft DL with #2 I'm breaking my tv" or my favorite, "D line or bust". Whenever anyone raises the possibility of drafting PP at 2, the arguments are always "whens the last time a team took a corner high and won a SB" and that the great teams "always draft DL high". Well, lets look at the D-linemen taken in the past decade in the top 5 picks:

    Mario Williams
    Gaines Adams
    Glenn Dorsey
    Chris Long
    Tyson Jackson
    Dewayne Robertson
    Julius Peppers
    Gerrard Warren
    Justin Smith
    Courtney Brown

    When I look at that list, I see three great players, two pretty good players and five busts. Even looking at the great players, Justin Smith has played on some mostly horrible defenses throughout his career, same with Mario Williams. Not to say that those guys are at fault, but to act like an elite Dl just totally turns your D around is wrong. Taking a DL in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing, and in fact Suh's case is only a very, very rare occasion.

    This isn't an anti-Fairley argument, and in fact I think that if he's there at two then Bowlen should be sprinting towards Goodell to hand in his pick. But if he's not there, there isn't any point in just picking Dareus or Bowers just to pick a DL because somehow picking a DL at the second pick will magically turn around our D. Newsflash: Dareus and Bowers aren't Suh, not even close, and we need to go defensive BPA which is PP, or just trade down.
    Not trying to be rude. But that doesn't make sense if you want to show me a case where a beastly D-line doesn't help a team then do so. But don't name draft busts to try to prove it to me.

    I do know that every pick is not a sure thing. And that last year their were two. McCoy and Suh. Which was a rare occurrence.

    I do however believe that having a good d-line helps your pass D because the quarter back has less time to pick and choose, the corner backs have less time to trail their assignments, and you get in the quarterbacks heads, which causes turnovers.

    I.E. Alphonso Smith. While he was here he looked like trash. He goes to Detroit and gets 5 Ints. Not because he was so much better but because he didn't have to be.

    2013 Adopted Bronco - Duke Ihenacho

  4. #4
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    i agree to an extent. People are assuming that whatever d line we take at 2 will be an all pro but that not is necessarily true.

    The broncos defense is soooo bad i dont think any position should be of limits, i would go with BPA on defense for the first 2 rounds at least.
    "I'm scared if I stop all at once, the cumulative hangover will literally kill me."

  5. #5
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    Very true post. Drafting is not a sure thing, I don't think it matters what spot you draft from. I do think people try to hard to draft to fill a need even though there may not be a great player at that position. People also want to draft a player based on what they seen in one or two games. Sometimes based on what they saw in the Senior Bowl of at the combines. Funny how a player can be a really good college player and because he runs a 4.5 and the combines instead of a 4.4 people start to wonder if he is over rated. There is such a thing as "football speed" and "track speed"!
    I remember Robert Quinn playing last season at UNC and he was awesome but since he didn't play last season, I read where people on these type forums say "Forget it! We are not drafting Quinn no matter what!" I saw Sam Acho play at Texas and liked what I seen and heard him compared to Orakpo but hear nothing about him on these forums?
    But it is still fun to talk the draft on here and will continue to do so.
    Thanks for posting

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoryWinget81 View Post
    I vote trade down. We don't need a corner, we need the best defensive linemen in the draft that we can find.
    I agree with you, we also need better all around LB's too so trading down to collect more 2nd and 3rd rounder would be ok with me


    Andy Jano 2017 adopted Bronco

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeNbake View Post
    Not trying to be rude. But that doesn't make sense if you want to show me a case where a beastly D-line doesn't help a team then do so. But don't name draft busts to try to prove it to me.

    I do know that every pick is not a sure thing. And that last year their were two. McCoy and Suh. Which was a rare occurrence.

    I do however believe that having a good d-line helps your pass D because the quarter back has less time to pick and choose, the corner backs have less time to trail their assignments, and you get in the quarterbacks heads, which causes turnovers.

    I.E. Alphonso Smith. While he was here he looked like trash. He goes to Detroit and gets 5 Ints. Not because he was so much better but because he didn't have to be.
    I'm not gonna argue that a beastly d-line doesn't help a team, in fact the fearsome foursome and purple people eaters had two of the best d-lines and defenses of all time. But Allan Craig, Jack Youngblood and Deacon Jones aren't in this draft. And there's a hell of a lot more than D-line that goes into defense. Look at the Vikings, they'v the had the best d line in football for the last 3-4 years and yet have only been ranked between 10-18 overall.

    Like I said, if Fairley's there, then it wouldn't make any sense for the Broncos to pass him up because I think he'll be really, really good. But people basing their whole draft analysis of "Dline at 2 or bust" are missing the whole point of how hard it is to project a player in the draft, and I really think people have been starving for a good DL for so long that they've talked Dareus and Bowers into these superhuman guys that theyre not. Hell, I have even heard Cameron Jordan or Watt being talked about at the second pick in the draft which is absurd.
    Last edited by gpholmes; 02-09-2011 at 08:28 PM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpholmes View Post
    Every time I go on this board I read "we need the next Suh" or "if we don't draft DL with #2 I'm breaking my tv" or my favorite, "D line or bust". Whenever anyone raises the possibility of drafting PP at 2, the arguments are always "whens the last time a team took a corner high and won a SB" and that the great teams "always draft DL high". Well, lets look at the D-linemen taken in the past decade in the top 5 picks:

    Mario Williams
    Gaines Adams
    Glenn Dorsey
    Chris Long
    Tyson Jackson
    Dewayne Robertson
    Julius Peppers
    Gerrard Warren
    Justin Smith
    Courtney Brown

    When I look at that list, I see three great players, two pretty good players and five busts. Even looking at the great players, Justin Smith has played on some mostly horrible defenses throughout his career, same with Mario Williams. Not to say that those guys are at fault, but to act like an elite Dl just totally turns your D around is wrong. Taking a DL in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing, and in fact Suh's case is only a very, very rare occasion.

    This isn't an anti-Fairley argument, and in fact I think that if he's there at two then Bowlen should be sprinting towards Goodell to hand in his pick. But if he's not there, there isn't any point in just picking Dareus or Bowers just to pick a DL because somehow picking a DL at the second pick will magically turn around our D. Newsflash: Dareus and Bowers aren't Suh, not even close, and we need to go defensive BPA which is PP, or just trade down.
    Sorry bro, but I have to seriously question your football knowledge after a post like this. Are you seriously comparing having a dominant D-Line vs. a Dominant secondary. Not sure if you've been paying much attention to the Broncos in the last few years, but we've had some pretty damn good secondarys the past few years and they've basically done nothing for us. DL wins over DB 10 times out of 10. Also, you are making it sound like PP is already a sure thing, and that somehow DL has more 'bust' potential than DB. Sorry, but if you pay attention to the draft there is a reason why DL get drafted so high and not Cbs. Its because having a dominant DL trumps secondary, again, 10 times out of 10....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco in UT View Post
    Sorry bro, but I have to seriously question your football knowledge after a post like this. Are you seriously comparing having a dominant D-Line vs. a Dominant secondary. Not sure if you've been paying much attention to the Broncos in the last few years, but we've had some pretty damn good secondarys the past few years and they've basically done nothing for us. DL wins over DB 10 times out of 10. Also, you are making it sound like PP is already a sure thing, and that somehow DL has more 'bust' potential than DB. Sorry, but if you pay attention to the draft there is a reason why DL get drafted so high and not Cbs. Its because having a dominant DL trumps secondary, again, 10 times out of 10....
    In 03 the Jets took Dewayne Robertson at the 4th pick and the Cowboys took Terrance Newman with the 5th. Clearly a lot of people were convinced that Dewayne was going to be a "sure thing", or else he wouldn't have been the first DL taken in the draft. So please explain to me how the Jets didn't make a huge mistake by taking Robertson instead of Newman.

    I'm all for building a dominant D line, I'm just not convinced that we can't do that by signing FA's and trading down or taking DL guys in the second and third rounds.
    Last edited by gpholmes; 02-09-2011 at 08:35 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpholmes View Post
    Every time I go on this board I read "we need the next Suh" or "if we don't draft DL with #2 I'm breaking my tv" or my favorite, "D line or bust". Whenever anyone raises the possibility of drafting PP at 2, the arguments are always "whens the last time a team took a corner high and won a SB" and that the great teams "always draft DL high". Well, lets look at the D-linemen taken in the past decade in the top 5 picks:

    Mario Williams
    Gaines Adams
    Glenn Dorsey
    Chris Long
    Tyson Jackson
    Dewayne Robertson
    Julius Peppers
    Gerrard Warren
    Justin Smith
    Courtney Brown

    When I look at that list, I see three great players, two pretty good players and five busts. Even looking at the great players, Justin Smith has played on some mostly horrible defenses throughout his career, same with Mario Williams. Not to say that those guys are at fault, but to act like an elite Dl just totally turns your D around is wrong. Taking a DL in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing, and in fact Suh's case is only a very, very rare occasion.

    This isn't an anti-Fairley argument, and in fact I think that if he's there at two then Bowlen should be sprinting towards Goodell to hand in his pick. But if he's not there, there isn't any point in just picking Dareus or Bowers just to pick a DL because somehow picking a DL at the second pick will magically turn around our D. Newsflash: Dareus and Bowers aren't Suh, not even close, and we need to go defensive BPA which is PP, or just trade down.
    I'm all for taking the BPA. I am unsure why you think PP is the BPA over Bowers, Dareus, or even Jordan and Watt. I am not convinced PP will be the BPA nor even as good as his hype. Personally, I think Fairley is the consensus BPA but even he isn't as good as Suh. After him, I see Dareus and Bowers as about even with PP below them.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpholmes View Post
    Every time I go on this board I read "we need the next Suh" or "if we don't draft DL with #2 I'm breaking my tv" or my favorite, "D line or bust". Whenever anyone raises the possibility of drafting PP at 2, the arguments are always "whens the last time a team took a corner high and won a SB" and that the great teams "always draft DL high". Well, lets look at the D-linemen taken in the past decade in the top 5 picks:

    Mario Williams
    Gaines Adams
    Glenn Dorsey
    Chris Long
    Tyson Jackson
    Dewayne Robertson
    Julius Peppers
    Gerrard Warren
    Justin Smith
    Courtney Brown

    When I look at that list, I see three great players, two pretty good players and five busts. Even looking at the great players, Justin Smith has played on some mostly horrible defenses throughout his career, same with Mario Williams. Not to say that those guys are at fault, but to act like an elite Dl just totally turns your D around is wrong. Taking a DL in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing, and in fact Suh's case is only a very, very rare occasion.

    This isn't an anti-Fairley argument, and in fact I think that if he's there at two then Bowlen should be sprinting towards Goodell to hand in his pick. But if he's not there, there isn't any point in just picking Dareus or Bowers just to pick a DL because somehow picking a DL at the second pick will magically turn around our D. Newsflash: Dareus and Bowers aren't Suh, not even close, and we need to go defensive BPA which is PP, or just trade down.
    You my friend need to get over the PP hype, and here's why;

    Most will agree that Fairley isn't Suh,

    But how many people wouldnt take Gerald McCoy over Marcus Thomas?

    Now, how many would be happy an Ike Taylor type corner?



    It's ignorant to think we don't need to draft DL, because we do. How many times have teams drafted corners and improved in run defense?

    We need run stoppers and pass rushers if we want to be successful. An elite front seven makes an average secondary look elite. An elite secondary makes an average front seven look.... average.

    How about you look at the highly drafted corners over the years too, how are they doing?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by THEdraftnik View Post
    How about you look at the highly drafted corners over the years too, how are they doing?
    Well the only corners drafted in the last decade in top 10:
    Quentin Jammer
    Terence Newman
    Deangelo hall
    Dunta Robinson
    Adam Jones
    Antrel Rolle
    Carlos Rogers
    Joe Haden

    All of these guys are solid players, with the exception for Adam Jones who is a headcase. What this tells me is that the bust rate for corners isn't nearly as high as some would think. However, when you look back at the last decade or even 20 years, the bust rate for defensive linemen and tackles in particular is way, way higher.

    And I never said we didn't need DL. But there are other ways of getting a DL aside from the second pick in the draft. There's 6 other rounds. We have 3 picks in the top 50. There's free agency. This defense has holes all over, and getting a good player will only help us, regardless of position.

  13. #13
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    Well see the thing is I don't just want a solid player at the #2 spot. I don't just want a guy who is going to make an impact on one player (CB). I want a guy that can truly change a game and a whole team. Linemen/Safeties can do that. We saw what Suh did in terms of making his line better, his secondary better, while still producing. I doubt Fairley/Dareus/Bowers can match that, but they can come somewhat close I think. Those 3 are all impact players, that can put so much pressure on QB that they make a bad decision, they can greatly improve our run defense which allows us to put our safeties into more coverages. Some say well Peterson can move to safety, but it isn't as easy as you think. First off, the safety position is driven by instinct, if you don't have it, you aren't going to be a playmaker/game changer. Second, you need to be able to be physical,and Peterson despite his great size has never impressed me with physical play. Third, you need to be smart and recognize what all is going on, and make a tough decision quick. Those things don't always come with the physical freak, I'd argue that the best safeties are much more of mental freaks than physical ones. Does Peterson have that? I really don't know. All I can say is that there is no evidence that he does and that is a huge risk to take if you are hoping for a safety there.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpholmes View Post
    Well the only corners drafted in the last decade in top 10:
    Quentin Jammer
    Terence Newman
    Deangelo hall
    Dunta Robinson
    Adam Jones
    Antrel Rolle
    Carlos Rogers
    Joe Haden

    All of these guys are solid players, with the exception for Adam Jones who is a headcase. What this tells me is that the bust rate for corners isn't nearly as high as some would think. However, when you look back at the last decade or even 20 years, the bust rate for defensive linemen and tackles in particular is way, way higher.

    And I never said we didn't need DL. But there are other ways of getting a DL aside from the second pick in the draft. There's 6 other rounds. We have 3 picks in the top 50. There's free agency. This defense has holes all over, and getting a good player will only help us, regardless of position.
    Gee why did you not use the top 5 like you did in the first post thats right in the last decade despite the PP fan bases cry cover corners are the most important thing. Only 2 cover corners in the last decade was drafted that high Jammer and Terrence Newman

    Jimmy Smith has allowed 11 receptions in 2 years PP has allowed more then that in 2 games.

    DT vs. CB CB has a higher rate of busts
    DT+DE vs. CB+S secondary has had a higher rate

    Here are the cornerbacks that were drafted in the first round between 1998 and 2006:


    1998 (1 Pro Bowler, 2 average players, 1 bust) -
    Charles Woodson (4) – Future Hall of Famer made the Pro Bowl in his first four seasons, was adequate for six seasons, then made four more Pro Bowls between 2008 and 2011.
    Duane Starks (10) – Intercepted 25 passes and was a solid player for four teams in ten-year NFL career.
    Terry Fair (20) – Lasted only four seasons before crashing out of the league.
    R.W. McQuarters (28) – Intercepted 14 passes and was a decent player for four teams in eleven-year NFL career.

    1999 (2 Pro Bowlers, 2 semi-busts) -
    Champ Bailey (7) – 9-time Pro Bowler has 48 interceptions and is still one of the premier corners in the league.
    Chris McAllister (10) – 3-time Pro Bowler was a shutdown corner for Ravens in eleven-year career.
    Antuan Edwards (25) – Played for five teams in lackluster seven-year career.
    Fernando Bryant (26) – Played for four teams in slightly less lackluster nine-year career.

    2000 (1 Pro Bowler, 2 busts) -
    Deltha O’Neal (15) – 2-time Pro Bowler. Had 34 interceptions in nine years, but was out of the league after the 2008 season.
    Rashard Anderson (23) – Lasted only two seasons in the league due to a combination of substance abuse and lack of talent.
    Ahmed Plummer (24) – Decent player for four years before injuries forced him to retire in 2005 after playing in only nine games in the previous two seasons.

    2001 (1 Pro Bowler, 1 above average player, 2 busts) -
    Nate Clements (21) – 1 Pro Bowl. Very good player, but 49ers questionably made him highest paid defensive player in history in 2007.
    Will Allen (22) – No Pro Bowls, but has reputation as one of the best corner covers in league. Currently playing with Dolphins.
    Willie Middlebrooks (24) – started one game in five years. Currently plays in Canada.
    Jamar Fletcher (26) – played for five teams in eight years. Out of the league by age 29.

    2002 (1 Pro Bowler, 2 average players, 1 bust) -
    Quentin Jammer (5) – No Pro Bowls, only 14 interceptions in nine years with the Chargers.
    Phillip Buchanon (17) – No Pro Bowls, 20 interceptions. Has played for five teams; was released outright twice.
    Lito Sheppard (26) – 2 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro. Carved out a solid career playing for Eagles, Jets, and Vikings.
    Mike Rumph (27) – Was called the worst corner in the league before the 49ers mercifully moved him to safety. Still lasted only three healthy seasons in league.

    2003 (3 Pro Bowlers, 2 busts) -
    Terence Newman (5) – 2 Pro Bowls, 26 interceptions. Has spent entire career as starter for Cowboys.
    Marcus Trufant (11) – 1 Pro Bowl, 20 interceptions. Has spent entire career with Seahawks.
    Andre Woolfolk (28) – Rarely played in four seasons with Titans. Out of league by 2006.
    Sammy Davis (30) – Rarely played in five seasons with three teams. Out of league by 2007.
    Nnamdi Asomugha (31) – 4 Pro Bowls. Premier shutdown corner in NFL. Amazingly, the ball was thrown his way only 27 times in 14 games in 2010. Signed to largest contract for cornerback in NFL history.

    2004 (1 Pro Bowler, 2 above average players, 1 bust) -
    DeAngelo Hall (8) – 3 Pro Bowls, 32 interceptions in seven seasons.
    Dunta Robinson (10) – Was a starter for six seasons for Texans. In 2010, Falcons signed him to second largest contract ever for a cornerback.
    Ahmad Carroll (25) – Weaknesses included not being able to cover receivers. Played parts of four seasons with three teams. Last seen as practice squad member of UFL’s Hartford Colonials.
    Chris Gamble (28) – Has started at cornerback for last seven seasons for Panthers and grabbed 24 interceptions. One of the highest paid defensive players in NFL.

    2005 (1 average player, 3 busts plus 1 bust at cornerback position) -
    Pacman Jones (6) – Weaknesses included sobriety and not getting arrested. Actually had two decent seasons for Titans in 2005 and 2006. Last seen as member of Bengals, displaying little of the athleticism that made him the sixth overall pick.
    Antrel Rolle (8) – Injuries and lack of coverage ability cost Rolle to lose his starting job after three seasons. Converted to safety in 2008, and has made two Pro Bowls since then.
    Carlos Rogers (9) – Solid six-year starter for Redskins.
    Fabian Washington (23) – Really fast, but not all that good. Has been mainly a backup for career.
    Marlin Jackson (29) – A poor man’s Antrel Rolle. Mainly a backup cornerback, he has also filled in at safety at times, where he has done well. Eagles signed him in 2010 to be a safety, but a ruptured Achilles ended his season in June.

    2006 (1 Pro Bowler, 1 average player, 2 busts) -
    Tye Hill (15) – Part-time player has played for four teams in five years. Was waived by Titans before 2010 season.
    Antonio Cromartie (19) – 1 All-Pro, 1 Pro Bowl, 18 interceptions in five seasons.
    Johnathan Joseph (24) – Solid, if unspectacular five year starter with Bengals.
    Kelly Jennings (31) – Still hanging around with Seahawks, despite being only a nickel or dime back.
    11 of 37 that have panned out as Pro bowlers
    Last edited by Joshecalpoly; 02-09-2011 at 10:47 PM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshecalpoly View Post
    Gee why did you not use the top 5 like you did in the first post thats right in the last decade despite the PP fan bases cry cover corners are the most important thing. NO cover corner in the last decade was drafted that high. 3 in history were drafted that high.

    Jimmy Smith has allowed 11 receptions in 2 years PP has allowed more then that in 2 games.
    Jimmy Smith has always looked bad when I watch Colorado.
    And to be honest he has never been against top competition, and teams just took the easy way and avoided him. I'm sure if teams challenged him more people would realize he isn't nearly as good as people think he is.

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