Why I think JJ Watt is a target

[MHSalute]

First of all, I do not think we have two starters at DE. Both Fox and Allen like big DEs who can hold up against the run and still get after the QB. This is not Doom and it is not Ayers. IMO Ayers will be asked to add 10lbs and be the 3rd DE and nickel DT...similar to the role Anthony Hargrove played on the Saints and Derek Landri played on the Panthers. While Doom will be complemented with a much bigger DE, so we can roll the LBs to help Doom out.

Digging up an old scouting report on Ayers:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profil...ayers-analysis

Compares To: MARK ANDERSON, Chicago -- Ayers might be the rising star at this position, or 2008 could have just been an aberration. He had three so-so years and even in 2008, it was not until the second half of the season that he started living up to his high school headlines. He might not have the suddenness to play the edge in NFL, but might be a decent fit as an under tackle.

So if we are thinking we need to be at 8 to get a top defensive player, you can rule out Dareus, Miller, and PP...no way they last until #8. I also think we can rule out A Smith and R Quinn because both are weak against the run and would not pair well with Doom.

So I am thinking Fairley is a possibility, but there are concerns about 1 year production and attitude. Then I got to thinking about Watt. Hard worker, very athletic, fits what Allen likes at DE, and is a player who very likely would go 9-12. If we must stay in front of Dallas, it makes sense to look at who they would take...otherwise trading with the Redskins would be acceptable...not only to #8.

For those who think we would not need Watt because we have Ayers, here is a comparison of workouts:

3 cone: W 6.88 A 7.56 (body control)
Shuttle: W 4.21 A 4.51 (change of direction)
Bench: W 34 A 18 (upper body strength)
Broad: W 10' 00" A 8' 06" (explosion)
Vert: W 37" A 29' 6"(explosion/lower body strength)

Workouts do not mean everything, but it has already become clear Ayers does not have the explosion to be a factor on the outside. His best fit may be inside.

I am seriously thinking Watt is exactly what the defensive minds at dove Valley want at LDE. Pushing Ayers to 3rd DE and UT also feels two depth problems.

Anyways, just what I have deduced from what has been said by the front office.
I think they milk there way down to as close to 8 as they can get, collecting picks on the way down.

I see the Bronco's top 5 board as:

Dareus
Miller
PP
Watt
Fairley
Watt

[johnlimburg]

First of all, I do not think we have two starters at DE. Both Fox and Allen like big DEs who can hold up against the run and still get after the QB. This is not Doom and it is not Ayers. IMO Ayers will be asked to add 10lbs and be the 3rd DE and nickel DT...similar to the role Anthony Hargrove played on the Saints and Derek Landri played on the Panthers. While Doom will be complemented with a much bigger DE, so we can roll the LBs to help Doom out.

Digging up an old scouting report on Ayers:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009/profil...ayers-analysis



So if we are thinking we need to be at 8 to get a top defensive player, you can rule out Dareus, Miller, and PP...no way they last until #8. I also think we can rule out A Smith and R Quinn because both are weak against the run and would not pair well with Doom.

So I am thinking Fairley is a possibility, but there are concerns about 1 year production and attitude. Then I got to thinking about Watt. Hard worker, very athletic, fits what Allen likes at DE, and is a player who very likely would go 9-12. If we must stay in front of Dallas, it makes sense to look at who they would take...otherwise trading with the Redskins would be acceptable...not only to #8.

For those who think we would not need Watt because we have Ayers, here is a comparison of workouts:

3 cone: W 6.88 A 7.56 (body control)
Shuttle: W 4.21 A 4.51 (change of direction)
Bench: W 34 A 18 (upper body strength)
Broad: W 10' 00" A 8' 06" (explosion)
Vert: W 37" A 29' 6"(explosion/lower body strength)

Workouts do not mean everything, but it has already become clear Ayers does not have the explosion to be a factor on the outside. His best fit may be inside.

I am seriously thinking Watt is exactly what the defensive minds at dove Valley want at LDE. Pushing Ayers to 3rd DE and UT also feels two depth problems.

Anyways, just what I have deduced from what has been said by the front office.
I think they milk there way down to as close to 8 as they can get, collecting picks on the way down.

I see the Bronco's top 5 board as:

Dareus
Miller
PP
Watt
Fairley
Watt

Who is this other Watt.

I dont think we take him personally

[MHSalute]

Who is this other Watt.

I dont think we take him personally

He is so good you think there is two of him.

I don't think we take him, because it would mean trading to 7 or 8, but I do think we would take him over Fairley just to go safe.

[johnlimburg]

He is so good you think there is two of him.

I don't think we take him, because it would mean trading to 7 or 8, but I do think we would take him over Fairley just to go safe.

Well we cant IMO trade down past 9 because Dallas IMO will take him

[BroncosTX77]

Bundle up! It can get fairly cold being the only one on the wagon!

[MHSalute]

Bundle up! It can get fairley cold being the only one on the wagon!

Maybe, but if we end up at #7 or 8, I think Watt gets called over Fairley.

[johnlimburg]

He is so good you think there is two of him.

I don't think we take him, because it would mean trading to 7 or 8, but I do think we would take him over Fairley just to go safe.

I was being a smart ass cause you wrote in your top 5 there is Watt and Watt.

[MHSalute]

I was being a smart ass cause you wrote in your top 5 there is Watt and Watt.

and I still say you only think he is there twice...he is that good

[johnlimburg]

and I still say you only think he is there twice...he is that good

What ?

[dukes88]

I think Failry is falling quickly and guys like Watt and Quinn are rising. I would not be shocked to see them both go in the top 8 (if the QB run does not happen).

I think we are better off to take Dareus - only way we should start moving back is if he goes #1. I don't think we need PP (and #2 is too early) and I like Miller, but, where does he play in the 4-3...

I agree that we are not set at DE, I don't think Doom is an every down player - Ayers will surprise most and with the help of Dareus may be ready to add some pass rush to his run stopping numbers. We have to stop getting run over.

I think we should address the DE if one of the late first/early second round guys fall (Clayborn, Reed, Bowers??, Wilkerson, Heyward, Ayers, Sheard). Adding Dareus and one of these guys (some being flexible enough to shift inside at times) would instantly improve our core. Then we could focus on LB and Safety with the next two picks... I am drooling over the possibilities: )

[BroncoStampede]

Im not sure if we will be able to trade back even if we wanted to. This is especially true with the uncertainty with the CBA. Trades in the top 5 just dont happen very often in normal offseasons.

Without more certainty, the likelihood of moves is very low. New York’s trade up for Mark Sanchez is the only time a team has moved up for a top-six pick in the last six years.

Teams just aren’t going to fork up extra picks to move up without knowing how much a top-five contract is going to cost.

“It’s a gray area,” one AFC personnel executive told Breer. “No one knows the timetable, and there are no guarantees. And even if there is a rookie wage scale, we don’t know the numbers.”

This draft class also doesn’t have the right standout prospects to would inspire a move up.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-top-of-draft/

Heres another article that predicts there will be very little trade action especially at the top of the draft this year.

While the rookie wage scale uncertainty could be a small factor, another decision maker believes the lack of separation at the top of this draft along with so-so quarterbacks will make teams stay put

“Unless you’re desperate for one of the quarterbacks – and I don’t think anybody is really that desperate this year – I think most teams are looking at the top end of the draft and being patient,” another G.M. told Cole.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...trades/related

So, if the Broncos like Watt, they will probably have to pick him at #2.

[Cugel]

This is what I've been saying all along (although I posted the thread about possible trades to keep things interesting).

There are just DAMN FEW trades in the top 5. Only 3 since 2001. (The weird one was the Jets trading up to #4 to grab DeWayne Robertson -- not a great idea).

I don't think despite what teams say that it's about the money as much as it is about the PICKS you have to give up. With the #2 pick worth 2600 points, if you're the Redskins say, and want to take Blaine Gabbert, you have to give up 2 1st round picks, a 2nd and probably a 3rd. That cripples your draft for 2 years -- all for one guy who might not work out!

You'd have to be convince that guy was your "franchise QB" -- that's the ONLY way it's worth it. And then you'd better be SURE.

And teams this year are not sure. That's why there will probably be no trades in the top five and maybe 1 trade in the top 10 this year -- just like every other year.

NOTE: The other time was Giants trading up to take Eli Manning and surrendering picks that became: Phillip Rivers and Shawne Merriman, among others. That's not a great precedent either for teams thinking of trading up.

[BF_forever]

Watt is a great football player but I dont see him as a fit for us. Fox said he see's Ayers as our LE and I dont think Watt fits anywhere else in a 43.

If we had stayed as a 34 defense I would be saying to pick him at 2, but that didnt happen. If we trade down and end up with a DE I think it will be Quinn. I dont want it to be, but he could start at RE and not be as much of a liability against the run as Doom

[Ringo56]

Bring in J.J. Watt and he will be better than every other DE on our roster by his 3rd year (yes better than Doom in a 4-3). Ayers is nothing and has shown nothing other than being able to stop the run but we will need more than that from him if he is playing DE. And Doom was down to 245 pounds no way does he hold up against the run at his size, now pack 20 pounds back on him and he might not get pushed around as much but he is still a weak spot on our front against the run.

J.J. Watt reminds me so much of Mario Williams with his size/speed combo, and I think Williams has worked out well as a big 4-3 DE in Houston. J.J. Watt has proven himself at UW as a pass rusher and a run stopper he is the perfect DE and he could play in any scheme we run. He never gives up and if he doesn't get to the QB rushing you can bet he will have those big ass arms in the air knocking down the pass because he is a complete player not just a pass rusher or a run stopper.

Would we take Watt at #2 I don't think we would because of our need at DT and knowing 100% that either Dareus or Fairley will be available and would fill a huge hole at DT.

Myself I would take one of the 2 DT's and that hurts because I am such a huge Watt supporter but I feel the need for a top end DT is just to great to pass up.

ok homer rant complete...

[MHSalute]

I didn't say he was the target just a legitimate target for us at #8 imo

Honestly, I just want to have a dominant DL...if that means taking Dareus, trading both 2nds to get Watt, and signing Barry Cofield...so be it.


You can not run on this!

Ayers
Dareus
Cofield
Watt

You can not pass on this!

Doom
Ayers
Dareus
Watt


This is what I want plus a RT that pancakes people...

My rant over