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  1. #181
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Archimedes Owl View Post
    Personally, I'm not a draft evaluator or anything like that. I do put some stock in the Lewin Forecast put out by Football Outsiders.

    Of course, it shouldn't replace professional scouting or anything like that, but we've all seen scouts overrate certain qualities in prospects (Often things like arm strength or winning) and underrate other qualities (Accuracy and games started along with things like ability to rush or avoid sacks which suggests quick release).

    Last year, Lewin Forecast predicted a VERY good QB draft with RGIII and Luck being projected higher than most QB's of any recent draft, but it also predicted Russell Wilson even higher.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl...-forecast-2012

    From year to year, the system has had some major correct predictions, but, of course, has some misses.

    But it works fairly well because it has found some patterns in the prospects that scouts have loved, but who have failed or succeeded.

    Anyhow, what's interesting about this year's forecast is that the projection system likes this year's draft class quite a bit. Oh, and a note, it loved last year's draft, but it wasn't as high on Osweiler which of course isn't quite as important as it would be had he landed with another team in another situation.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...-forecast-2013

    Nonetheless, I'd personally be quite happy if the Broncos had somebody who the system and scouts rates well in the first three rounds and we pounced on him. We all know that QB is the most important position on the field, but even with this knowledge, I think that we underrate the position. We'd be lucky if we could have a Montana to Young or Favre to Rodgers type of story, but we'd even be lucky if we got a Cutler, Romo or Rivers as QB's like this don't fall into your lap all of the time either.

    So, I think it makes sense to draft a QB early and even in a weak class, we may get a better chance at a good prospect if the class is generally undervalued.
    I understand the desire for everyone to pin things down like football future performance to a science or mathematical formula but everyone that used the EYE test could have seen that players like Russell Wilson, RGIII, and Andrew Luck were the top passers coming out last year. Russell Wilson was just overlooked because of his height.

    As for Matt Scott, he shows a ton of ability. He's very underrated. People want to knock him for his size but he's the same size as RGIII when he came out.

    Jemarcus's issue was his work ethic. He was still 300 pounds when he started working with Garcia. They were talking about how they were trying to get him to lose about 35 to 40 pounds. That to me, screams he still doesn't have the work ethic. He still needs someone to push him. He wasn't even self motivated to drop the weight prior to trying to re-enter the league. Even to this day he doesn't take an ounce of accountability despite every player and coach saying it was him that was the problem. Yet he still acts as if no one wanted him to succeed. Do...not...want
    Last edited by Matymaddog; 04-06-2013 at 11:12 AM.

  2. #182
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    2,174
    If Glennon is available in the 3rd round, I wouldn't mind the Broncos drafting him. I am not that sold on Osweiller. I wanted Wilson last year in the 2nd round. A lot of push back on this site about his height which is understandable. But when you watch Wilson at the Combine, you can see that Wilson was legit, I was shocked that he fell to the 3rd round. I feel the same way this year about both Barkley and Glennon. They are legit. Geno Smith is questionable.

  3. #183
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ohenhen12345 View Post
    If Glennon is available in the 3rd round, I wouldn't mind the Broncos drafting him. I am not that sold on Osweiller. I wanted Wilson last year in the 2nd round. A lot of push back on this site about his height which is understandable. But when you watch Wilson at the Combine, you can see that Wilson was legit, I was shocked that he fell to the 3rd round. I feel the same way this year about both Barkley and Glennon. They are legit. Geno Smith is questionable.
    At this point osweiler is more proven than any QB in this draft and the team seems extremely high on him so don't look for anyone to be drafted before the sixth or seventh round. I doubt Elway will want to burn a higher pick on a 3rd string QB who won't see the field at all

  4. #184
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Denver
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    3,156
    The article wasn't just about them being the best picks last year. It was about them being rated higher than other high rated quarterback's through the years. And it's absolutely objective. Stats are wrong sometimes and some aren't all that predictive. This stat definitely isn't as predictive as some others, but it is pretty predictive. More, I think it touches on flaws with the "eyeball" test in that it pinpoints some weaknesses of many teams looking for a QB to draft overvalue certain traits. The stats that make up the forecast happen to be pretty decent at not overvaluing those traits, but a trained eye that knows not to overvalue traits such as arm strength with also have a better shot at drafting a QB who has a higher chance to succeed.

    But, I agree that the "eyeball" test is important. Stats are a tool, just like eyeballs are. I believe in stats because they work (Presuming you know how predictive they are and how to read them and understand them which is the flaw with how most people use stats).
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  5. #185
    theMileHighGuy is offline
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    None of the guys in this draft were Jack Elway's beer pong partner, so I doubt it. :paper:

    I like Glennon though, he's like an even more inaccurate Brock.

  6. #186
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by theMileHighGuy View Post
    None of the guys in this draft were Jack Elway's beer pong partner, so I doubt it. :paper:

    I like Glennon though, he's like an even more inaccurate Brock.
    This is just a disgruntled blind view of why Elway drafted osweiler. Instead of thinking we only got him because he was friends with jack Elway maybe Elway drafted him because he has seen more of osweiler than any other talent evaluater. Someone who says Elway only drafted him because he's friends with his son is just angry because the fan thinks they know more than the professionals

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