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  1. #1
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    Remember the draft hit rates

    Before you guys get all worked up about a guy you wanted in the 6th round, let me remind you that the Tom Bradys and even the Danny Trevathans of this world is pretty rare.

    These are the draft hit rates that came out of an analysis i did a while back:



    If you want the background - check this old thread:
    http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...tes&highlight=
    Last edited by Peanut; 05-14-2014 at 10:15 PM.
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  2. #2
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    Good post and reminder!

  3. #3
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    Thanks!

    10char
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  4. #4
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    Nov 2004
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    Some people like to get worked up about it.

    Personally I think people look at Mel Kiper and Maylock and think if "those guys can do it so can I". Some people consider it as fun as fantasy football or watching football...some maybe more so.

    Agree with the OP on hit rates. Until we learn to measure heart and motivations the hit rates will always be crappy.
    A good plan put into motion today is better than the ideal plan that is always coming sometime in the future.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    I think the Broncos do better in UDFA than anywhere else.

    Chris Harris vs. Omar Bolden, Trayvon Webster
    CJ Anderson vs. Ronnie Hillman
    Wesley Woodyard vs. Nate Irving

    I think they'll find Shaquil Barrett is NFL caliber.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2014
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    4
    Quote Originally Posted by SmokeBassett View Post
    I think the Broncos do better in UDFA than anywhere else.

    Chris Harris vs. Omar Bolden, Trayvon Webster
    CJ Anderson vs. Ronnie Hillman
    Wesley Woodyard vs. Nate Irving

    I think they'll find Shaquil Barrett is NFL caliber.
    Who exactly is Trayvon Webster?

  7. #7
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    Nov 2003
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    Haha, he meant Kayvon Webster.

    I wouldn't exactly say CJ Anderson is better than Ronnie Hillman...yet.
    My other love...

    305 HP / 273 TQ / SH-AWD / 6MT

  8. #8
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    "hitrates".....hmmmm, when I first read this, I thought you were talking chemistry of some type.

    I love these stats! Do you have them by position? I am sure they would tell a whole new story. (ie. DTs and likely QBs are more of a risk than most positions).

    As for these stats.....what do they tell me?:
    1) Top 10 picks are almost a lock
    2) Never give up a 1st or 2nd round pick (unless you are getting something very special in return).
    3) Lower round picks are not likely to make it, no matter how many good news stories are out there. This is why it makes sense to take a risk or two when you make those picks.
    4) I would make sure I got hold of "position" charts, because there may be data out there that affects a selection decision you might make.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    "hitrates".....hmmmm, when I first read this, I thought you were talking chemistry of some type.

    I love these stats! Do you have them by position? I am sure they would tell a whole new story. (ie. DTs and likely QBs are more of a risk than most positions).

    As for these stats.....what do they tell me?:
    1) Top 10 picks are almost a lock
    2) Never give up a 1st or 2nd round pick (unless you are getting something very special in return).
    3) Lower round picks are not likely to make it, no matter how many good news stories are out there. This is why it makes sense to take a risk or two when you make those picks.
    4) I would make sure I got hold of "position" charts, because there may be data out there that affects a selection decision you might make.
    Yeah yeah - lets pick on the non native english speaker ;-) funny though...


    Yup, i think i brokke the numbers down for DTs, QBs, RBs and DBs. Ill post the charts later.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgod654 View Post
    Yeah yeah - lets pick on the non native english speaker ;-) funny though...


    Yup, i think i brokke the numbers down for DTs, QBs, RBs and DBs. Ill post the charts later.
    That would be great!! And sorry about the "grammar" thingie. I knew what it was as soon as I opened your post. All it needs is a space (as in, hit rates), and all is well. It's like that word we often use and abuse here....."resigned". Do they mean that someone left the team or got a new contract????

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
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    5,032
    Quote Originally Posted by jgod654 View Post
    Before you guys get all worked up about a guy you wanted in the 6th round, let me remind you that the Tom Bradys and even the Danny Trevathans of this world is pretty rare.

    These are the draft hit rates that came out of an analysis i did a while back:



    If you want the background - check this old thread:
    http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...tes&highlight=
    Thanks for the info.

  12. #12
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    Nov 2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    That would be great!! And sorry about the "grammar" thingie. I knew what it was as soon as I opened your post. All it needs is a space (as in, hit rates), and all is well. It's like that word we often use and abuse here....."resigned". Do they mean that someone left the team or got a new contract????
    Since we live with a language that puts words together to 15-20 syllable words. In Danish language, we would gladly produce a word like "quarterbacktouchdowntointerceptionratio", so we tend the err on the side of splitting everything, which we are not sure whether should be one word or two.

    To your "resigned" someone could also be accepting a backup role...

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    That would be great!! And sorry about the "grammar" thingie. I knew what it was as soon as I opened your post. All it needs is a space (as in, hit rates), and all is well. It's like that word we often use and abuse here....."resigned". Do they mean that someone left the team or got a new contract????
    Haha...no biggie. I was just doing a fake pout :-)

    And BroncosDK is completely right. Danish is craaazy with regards to words.

    A few stupid examples.

    1. Summer vacation fun park receptionist assistant (yes, that is an actual job title)
    In danish: Sommerferieforlystelsesetablissementreceptionsassi stent

    2. Tram line dirt remover assistant replacement (also an actual job from the old days)
    In danish: Sporvognsskinneskidtskraberassistentmedhjælperaflø ser

    And then I haven't even begun on the number system...

    70 = Seventy = "Halvfjerds" in danish = Four times twenty minus half a twenty

    Yes....rly...

    On a more serious note:
    Ill be back with the graphs when I get back to my Mac
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoFanDK View Post
    Since we live with a language that puts words together to 15-20 syllable words. In Danish language, we would gladly produce a word like "quarterbacktouchdowntointerceptionratio", so we tend the err on the side of splitting everything, which we are not sure whether should be one word or two.

    To your "resigned" someone could also be accepting a backup role...
    Quote Originally Posted by jgod654 View Post
    Haha...no biggie. I was just doing a fake pout :-)

    And BroncosDK is completely right. Danish is craaazy with regards to words.

    A few stupid examples.

    1. Summer vacation fun park receptionist assistant (yes, that is an actual job title)
    In danish: Sommerferieforlystelsesetablissementreceptionsassi stent

    2. Tram line dirt remover assistant replacement (also an actual job from the old days)
    In danish: Sporvognsskinneskidtskraberassistentmedhjælperaflø ser

    And then I haven't even begun on the number system...

    70 = Seventy = "Halvfjerds" in danish = Four times twenty minus half a twenty

    Yes....rly...

    On a more serious note:
    Ill be back with the graphs when I get back to my Mac
    I almost forgot about the graphs.....having too much fun with languages!!!


  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
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    MD
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgod654 View Post
    Haha...no biggie. I was just doing a fake pout :-)

    And BroncosDK is completely right. Danish is craaazy with regards to words.

    A few stupid examples.

    1. Summer vacation fun park receptionist assistant (yes, that is an actual job title)
    In danish: Sommerferieforlystelsesetablissementreceptionsassi stent

    2. Tram line dirt remover assistant replacement (also an actual job from the old days)
    In danish: Sporvognsskinneskidtskraberassistentmedhjælperaflø ser

    And then I haven't even begun on the number system...

    70 = Seventy = "Halvfjerds" in danish = Four times twenty minus half a twenty

    Yes....rly...

    On a more serious note:
    Ill be back with the graphs when I get back to my Mac
    I love it!
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