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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    Elway didn't miss at all. Osweiler was an excellent pick. Elway was picking a backup quarterback, nothing more, and Osweiler delivered on that job during the Super Bowl run, going 5-2 in relief of the injured Manning. At the bottom of the second round, a backup quarterback is all you're getting:



    The Browns Need A Great QB, Which Is Why They Didnt Draft One

    Repeat: Osweiler has had ABOVE AVERAGE PRODUCTION FOR WHERE HE WAS DRAFTED. If you want to criticize Elway's drafting, look elsewhere.

    I did an analysis in another thread of the quarterbacks picked below #20 in the first round but at least in rounds 1-2 of the draft in the last ten years. There is only a 10% chance that a quarterback picked at that level goes on to become a starting-caliber quarterback, with the only two clear-cut starters being Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. In Carr's case he was likely under-drafted because of David Carr's unfortunate history. The rest of the time you get Brandon Weedens and Brady Quinns. Even when drafting at the top of the first round, the chances of getting a franchise quarterback are only 50%. Drafting a franchise quarter back is really hard.

    Elway can't say publicly that "I only picked Osweiler to be a backup, with a 10% lottery ticket chance of starting-caliber upside" because that would destroy his confidence and destroy the team's confidence in him. And so we have to endure these tedious threads about why Elway can't seem to draft quarterbacks when he played the position at a HoF level himself.

    The other reason the Russell Wilson critique is not that germane is that there are always going to be a few examples where someone drafted way below the second round pans out. This is because a) scouts spend a lot less time scouting some prospects that are high-risk simply because of limited time and resources, some of which may eventually succeed, and b) people fall in the draft for character reasons and then sometimes manage to turn their lives around. Dak Prescott is an example of the latter -- getting a DUI two whole days before his pro day. Yet Elway still gets criticized for not drafting him. In Russell Wilson's case, Elway didn't draft him, but so did every other GM in the league until Round 3.
    Osweiler was a colossal miss. He was not drafted to be a 4 year backup and then cut. He was drafted to be the successor after learning from one of the greatest ever. You claim the numbers about QBs drafted that low, then why pick them at all? Why not use the low second rounders on other positions? Oh right, because there are times when you hit on those and look like geniuses. Its okay to say they swung and missed there. Every team does. But when the pattern of picking tall projects looks like a habit, you deserve to be criticized just a wee bit.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taos_Broncomaniac View Post
    The guy is 33 and hasn't actually had great teams in KC, Kelce and a couple of receivers no one remembers. Hunt is good but now that DC's are figuring them out Reid (forever a bridesmaid) has no answers. He might be a solid transitional QB who won't lose any games for us until the next franchise QB comes along.

    Plus he would destroy KC twice a year for spite (hopefully), just saying we might kick the tires on what might be the best affordable option while we sort out this mess of an O-line.
    Im not saying he is old but Im saying if he was going to be the guy that could carry a team he would have shown us something by now.

    He has had some decent receiving threats over the past couples years: Charles, Hunt, Kelce, Maclin, and Hill. Not saying he had a great core but def better than avg at times.

    To me, it doesnt make sense to grab him if you think that he wont be able to win you playoff games, SB, or your long term QB. At that point Id rather draft a rookie and start them or as the topic came up before on this thread, find a way to trade for luck

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco51 View Post
    Osweiler was a colossal miss. He was not drafted to be a 4 year backup and then cut. He was drafted to be the successor after learning from one of the greatest ever. You claim the numbers about QBs drafted that low, then why pick them at all? Why not use the low second rounders on other positions? Oh right, because there are times when you hit on those and look like geniuses. Its okay to say they swung and missed there. Every team does. But when the pattern of picking tall projects looks like a habit, you deserve to be criticized just a wee bit.
    He wasn't cut after four years, he left in free agency after another team paid him a boatload, so I'm not sure what quarterback you're talking about. More generally, you're just not engaging on what I'm pointing out here, repeatedly: the organization had to sell Osweiler as a worthy successor publicly whether they believed that was a likely outcome or not. You can't say well, actually our plan for winning a SB was to spend most of the money on a world-class defense while giving an aging and chronically injured Peyton Manning just enough offensive tools to score semi-adequately, but for any lesser quarterback it will quickly become apparent just how bare the cupboard really is, and we're going to stink for a couple of years while we rebuild. That's not how you sell season tickets. Or sell free agents on coming to Denver, most of whom want to play for a contender if they have the chance. You pretty much have to tell the story that you've groomed a worthy successor to Manning even though the overwhelming statistical evidence shows that this almost never happens with a QB chosen in the bottom of the second round, or the bottom of the first.

    The real problem isn't Elway's drafting, it's Dove Valley's over-marketing what he drafted to a point well beyond the realistic abilities of even very good GMs. And now the disillusionment sets in, and people are over-reacting in the other direction. We need to be realistic, keep our heads screwed on straight, and realize the expectation of staying a top team after Manning left with greenhorn quarterbacks drafted well below where you get franchise-caliber players, playing behind a hollowed-out, patchwork Oline to keep the defense paid was never a likely proposition.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    He wasn't cut after four years, he left in free agency after another team paid him a boatload, so I'm not sure what quarterback you're talking about. More generally, you're just not engaging on what I'm pointing out here, repeatedly: the organization had to sell Osweiler as a worthy successor publicly whether they believed that was a likely outcome or not. You can't say well, actually our plan for winning a SB was to spend most of the money on a world-class defense while giving an aging and chronically injured Peyton Manning just enough offensive tools to score semi-adequately, but for any lesser quarterback it will quickly become apparent just how bare the cupboard really is, and we're going to stink for a couple of years while we rebuild. That's not how you sell season tickets. Or sell free agents on coming to Denver, most of whom want to play for a contender if they have the chance. You pretty much have to tell the story that you've groomed a worthy successor to Manning even though the overwhelming statistical evidence shows that this almost never happens with a QB chosen in the bottom of the second round, or the bottom of the first.

    The real problem isn't Elway's drafting, it's Dove Valley's over-marketing what he drafted to a point well beyond the realistic abilities of even very good GMs. And now the disillusionment sets in, and people are over-reacting in the other direction. We need to be realistic, keep our heads screwed on straight, and realize the expectation of staying a top team after Manning left with greenhorn quarterbacks drafted well below where you get franchise-caliber players, playing behind a hollowed-out, patchwork Oline to keep the defense paid was never a likely proposition.
    Again, Osweiler absolutely was drafted to be the successor. Why on Earth would they draft a QB that high if they knew he wouldnt amount to anything? And now, he drafted another tall project and it seems youre saying because of that low 1st round position, we should all know that it wont pan out. Yet, if its that obvious, why wouldnt Elways drafting be a problem? It seems by this logic if they rarely work out, yet he still drafts them that high, he actually IS the problem. The fact you think they had to sell Os without believing in Os all to sell season tickets with a wait list of a bazillion years is comical. You draft QBs that high because you hope theyre going to work out, not for window dressing.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco51 View Post
    Again, Osweiler absolutely was drafted to be the successor. Why on Earth would they draft a QB that high if they knew he wouldnt amount to anything? And now, he drafted another tall project and it seems youre saying because of that low 1st round position, we should all know that it wont pan out. Yet, if its that obvious, why wouldnt Elways drafting be a problem? It seems by this logic if they rarely work out, yet he still drafts them that high, he actually IS the problem. The fact you think they had to sell Os without believing in Os all to sell season tickets with a wait list of a bazillion years is comical. You draft QBs that high because you hope theyre going to work out, not for window dressing.
    Drafting a QB at pick 57 is low, not high, as the analysis in my prior post showed in some detail. Go find the last quarterback drafted in the bottom of the second round who went on to become a franchise-caliber player. You'll have to go back a ways.

    And no, they didn't draft him that low knowing "he wouldn't amount to anything." What he amounted to was a quality backup who could run Manning's system, which was what they needed with Manning coming back from neck surgery at age 36, and a likely injury risk given his age and immobility. Which is what they got. A decent backup quarterback isn't nothing, it's crucial, as our Super Bowl run proved. You need a guy who can win a few games for you if the starter gets an injury, just as Elway needed Bubby Brister to win some games for him when he was injured in his final year and missed four games. But Brister wasn't a franchise quarterback, and neither was Osweiler.

    Here's the comparison:

    Osweiler (drafted pick #57, QBR 75.9, TD-INT 29-26)
    Brister (drafted pick #67, QBR 72.3, TD-INT 81-78)

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    Drafting a QB at pick 57 is low, not high, as the analysis in my prior post showed in some detail. Go find the last quarterback drafted in the bottom of the second round who went on to become a franchise-caliber player. You'll have to go back a ways.

    And no, they didn't draft him that low knowing "he wouldn't amount to anything." What he amounted to was a quality backup who could run Manning's system, which was what they needed with Manning coming back from neck surgery at age 36, and a likely injury risk given his age and immobility. Which is what they got. A decent backup quarterback isn't nothing, it's crucial, as our Super Bowl run proved. You need a guy who can win a few games for you if the starter gets an injury, just as Elway needed Bubby Brister to win some games for him when he was injured in his final year and missed four games. But Brister wasn't a franchise quarterback, and neither was Osweiler.

    Here's the comparison:

    Osweiler (drafted pick #57, QBR 75.9, TD-INT 29-26)
    Brister (drafted pick #67, QBR 72.3, TD-INT 81-78)
    You dont use a 2nd round pick hoping he becomes a good career backup. They absolutely intended for Osweiler to be a franchise QB, they hoped that backing up Manning would improve his game to where he could be the guy for a long time after Manning retired. Elway could have signed someone to fill in just as well, someone that had already proved themselves as a capable backup and used that 2nd round pick to shore up another area

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    Drafting a QB at pick 57 is low, not high, as the analysis in my prior post showed in some detail. Go find the last quarterback drafted in the bottom of the second round who went on to become a franchise-caliber player. You'll have to go back a ways.

    And no, they didn't draft him that low knowing "he wouldn't amount to anything." What he amounted to was a quality backup who could run Manning's system, which was what they needed with Manning coming back from neck surgery at age 36, and a likely injury risk given his age and immobility. Which is what they got. A decent backup quarterback isn't nothing, it's crucial, as our Super Bowl run proved. You need a guy who can win a few games for you if the starter gets an injury, just as Elway needed Bubby Brister to win some games for him when he was injured in his final year and missed four games. But Brister wasn't a franchise quarterback, and neither was Osweiler.

    Here's the comparison:

    Osweiler (drafted pick #57, QBR 75.9, TD-INT 29-26)
    Brister (drafted pick #67, QBR 72.3, TD-INT 81-78)
    Dude, Bubby Brister was a 10 year vet when he signed here. Who, even though he had the support of the entire locker room, was benched for a guy they drafted in the third round to be the face of the franchise, not some guy to ride the pine and be a serviceable backup.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco51 View Post
    Dude, Bubby Brister was a 10 year vet when he signed here. Who, even though he had the support of the entire locker room, was benched for a guy they drafted in the third round to be the face of the franchise, not some guy to ride the pine and be a serviceable backup.
    Just let him and every other Elway fan be. It seems sometimes that being an Elway and a Broncos fan may not be the same thing. I loved what Elway did to get us to SB50, but the gall to say that he has above average drafting records is hilarious. And yes, before others comment, I realize that all it takes is a good QB draft to make things better again. Yet, Elway still hasn't done it. He made two mistakes at QB with Osweiler and Lynch. Osweiler was decent during his fill in for Manning, but he never fulfilled his intended role of being the starting QB here, and he still has never developed into a real starter. That's called a miss these days.
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  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by beastlyskronk View Post
    You dont use a 2nd round pick hoping he becomes a good career backup. They absolutely intended for Osweiler to be a franchise QB, they hoped that backing up Manning would improve his game to where he could be the guy for a long time after Manning retired. Elway could have signed someone to fill in just as well, someone that had already proved themselves as a capable backup and used that 2nd round pick to shore up another area
    Yes, you *hope* he becomes a franchise quarterback. Operative word being hope. Ten percent of the time that happens, going by the last ten years of drafting. Not often, but sometimes. But hoping it and expecting it are two different things.

    Yes, we could have signed a capable free agent backup. Those guys cost significantly more though, if by "capable" you mean can go 5-2 in relief during a Super Bowl run. Mark Sanchez is making $2 million this year. Landry Jones is making $2.2 million. Derek Anderson is making $2.25 million. Ryan Fitzpatrick is making $3 million. Matt Schaub is making $4.5 million. Nick Foles is making $5.5 million. Osweiler's rookie contract of about $0.75 million/year wasn't such a disaster by those standards, unless you think those other guys were a surefire bet to go 5-2 in relief of Manning. And with the "capable backup" label comes the near-certainty that there's no upside with those guys -- you know what they are. At least with Osweiler there was a 10% chance he'd turn into something.

    As for prospects for the backup to develop into a starter, it's intrinsically hard for that to happen because of lack of starter reps and lack of optimization of the system around the backup's strengths and weaknesses. It's always optimized for the starter's strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes you luck out. But expecting it as a matter of course is ridiculous. None of Peyton Manning's backups in Indianapolis amounted to anything either.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheAsianPA View Post
    Just let him and every other Elway fan be. It seems sometimes that being an Elway and a Broncos fan may not be the same thing. I loved what Elway did to get us to SB50, but the gall to say that he has above average drafting records is hilarious. And yes, before others comment, I realize that all it takes is a good QB draft to make things better again. Yet, Elway still hasn't done it. He made two mistakes at QB with Osweiler and Lynch. Osweiler was decent during his fill in for Manning, but he never fulfilled his intended role of being the starting QB here, and he still has never developed into a real starter. That's called a miss these days.
    No Osweiler probably means we dont have a third Lombardi trophy.

    Still think it was a bad pick?

    Also, drafting supplemental QB prospects has been advanced drafting strategy for the last 5 years. As CF said up above, you grab one per year for the 5% chance you get a Romo, Wilson, or Brady.

    Brock was considered the best prospect on the board at the time, and wed just signed a FA that many GMs doubted could come back from his horrific injury. A great strategy given the info that was available at e time.

    The pick worked out extremely well for us since it got us a third trophy.

    Elways made mistakes. No doubt. But hes also made a lot of brilliant moves. I wouldnt call this one brilliant, but it was tactically sound and worked out well for us.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonny_Quest View Post
    No Osweiler probably means we don’t have a third Lombardi trophy.

    Still think it was a bad pick?

    Also, drafting supplemental QB prospects has been advanced drafting strategy for the last 5 years. As CF said up above, you grab one per year for the 5% chance you get a Romo, Wilson, or Brady.

    Brock was considered the best prospect on the board at the time, and we’d just signed a FA that many GMs doubted could come back from his horrific injury. A great strategy given the info that was available at e time.

    The pick worked out extremely well for us since it got us a third trophy.

    Elway’s made mistakes. No doubt. But he’s also made a lot of brilliant moves. I wouldn’t call this one brilliant, but it was tactically sound and worked out well for us.
    Do you seriously think that Osweiler was the missing link this team needed to win a SB50? He just happened to be the QB on hand after Manning went down. That's it. If we had picked Russell Wilson, he probably finishes out the season and we win SB50 AND have our franchise QB. Let's really look at what you're saying here. Think about it, what if we had Russell Wilson playing that season instead of Osweiler? I don't necessarily think Osweiler got us to the SB50 or else he would be a franchise QB somewhere by that reasoning. He literally played an ok game manager style of ball, and that's all you needed with an all-world FA stud defense, along with a high performing Von Miller. On top of that, we won a lot of lucky games. You have no idea how much luck played into that season - which shows that you need a good offense to consistently win. Raiders 1st game was a pick six win, also barely beating the Browns by a FG, barely beating the Vikings by a FG, barely beating the Bengals by a FG, barely beating the Bears by 2, barely beating the Chiefs with a Von Miller forced turnover, etc. Huge clutch plays that were far beyond what Osweiler was responsible for. I'd argue that we would have been better off picking off a QB that showed more pocket awareness and mobility, and had we done so we are likely not looking at a 3-7 season. And I doubt Elway even believed in Osweiler as much as you do, after all he didn't bother to extend him before the offseason shenanigans began. The defense, comprised of Free agents like Talib, Ware and Ward, combined with the excellent drafts of Jackson, Trevathan, Wolfe, CHJ, and Miller all impacted the game far more than Osweiler did. And for those drafts, Elway did well. But that's only half the side of the ball.

    I think Elway is a great FA acquisition manager. There's no doubt about that. But only the biggest of homers can look at his drafts and say, yeah, he's amazing at it. There is no one left from our 2013 draft on this team, and some are not even in the NFL anymore. Half of our 2015 draft is off the team. Only one player from 2017 draft is playing. Just look at how his own coaching hires have turned out - in four years we have had three new head coaches. It seems that Elway knows how to deal for known talent, but not spot developing talent.

    And yeah, first round QBs are a crapshoot. But that doesn't mean you pick the projects like Lynch when you can see you have no real long term answers at the QB position either. Remember, Elway was the guy who wanted Butt Fumble Sanchez to run our offense, who ended up losing out to a 7th round pick, who surprise, is not that good either. Oh and Osweiler turns out to be a known quantity, and has been on 3 teams in 2 years with four different coaching offices. See a trend?
    Last edited by TheAsianPA; 11-25-2017 at 09:50 PM.
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  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    Yes, you *hope* he becomes a franchise quarterback. Operative word being hope. Ten percent of the time that happens, going by the last ten years of drafting. Not often, but sometimes. But hoping it and expecting it are two different things.

    Yes, we could have signed a capable free agent backup. Those guys cost significantly more though, if by "capable" you mean can go 5-2 in relief during a Super Bowl run. Mark Sanchez is making $2 million this year. Landry Jones is making $2.2 million. Derek Anderson is making $2.25 million. Ryan Fitzpatrick is making $3 million. Matt Schaub is making $4.5 million. Nick Foles is making $5.5 million. Osweiler's rookie contract of about $0.75 million/year wasn't such a disaster by those standards, unless you think those other guys were a surefire bet to go 5-2 in relief of Manning. And with the "capable backup" label comes the near-certainty that there's no upside with those guys -- you know what they are. At least with Osweiler there was a 10% chance he'd turn into something.

    As for prospects for the backup to develop into a starter, it's intrinsically hard for that to happen because of lack of starter reps and lack of optimization of the system around the backup's strengths and weaknesses. It's always optimized for the starter's strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes you luck out. But expecting it as a matter of course is ridiculous. None of Peyton Manning's backups in Indianapolis amounted to anything either.
    The Colts drafted 2 QB's in Peyton's time with them. Both in the 6th round...to be backups. And the rest were aging vets. They never wasted a high pick with the intention of making them a high quality backup. When you draft them higher, like the Colts did with Luck, you expect them to be a starter eventually.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheAsianPA View Post
    Yes, I think Osweiler was a horrible pick. If we had picked Russell Wilson, he probably finishes out the season and we win SB50 AND have our franchise QB. Let's really look at what you're saying here. Think about it, what if we had Russell Wilson playing that season instead of Osweiler?
    No, Russell Wilson would have been a terrible pick as a backup to Manning, and all 32 GMs in the league agreed with that assessment. He was running a very different system in Seattle that was optimized for his strengths, where the other quarterbacks on the roster were similar to his style, e.g., Tarvaris Jackson, and the Oline and receivers were as well, in addition to having a Marshawn Lynch training wheels running game to lean on. Russell Wilson would have gotten killed behind our Oline, and likely would not have been able to develop running a Manning-style pocket-passing offense. Which goes double if he was injured much of the time, which is likely given his style of play.

    Wilson is an illustration of how every so often lightning strikes. Once in a blue moon a sixth-round pick turns into Tom Brady. But you don't judge drafts by that yardstick. If the criticism of Elway is that he didn't pick up enough longshot lottery tickets that then paid off, then this whole discussion is beyond hope. The chances that a quarterback with Wilson's attributes develop into a franchise talent are very low -- not zero, but very low.

    Anyway, I'm really tired of the tedium of the absurd Russell Wilson critique. I seriously doubt you're lurking on the other 31 NFL boards blasting away at their GMs for not drafting Wilson. Which none of them did until the 3rd round. Even if you score it a failure for Elway, it's not a failure that makes him worse than other GMs, which I thought was the point of the anti-Elway posters in this thread. Which also goes for the Osweiler pick, which as I showed above was a pick that significantly outperformed statistical expectations for a quarterback taken at his draft position. You can criticize Elway if you want, just not for that.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco51 View Post
    The Colts drafted 2 QB's in Peyton's time with them. Both in the 6th round...to be backups. And the rest were aging vets. They never wasted a high pick with the intention of making them a high quality backup. When you draft them higher, like the Colts did with Luck, you expect them to be a starter eventually.
    Luck was drafted #1 overall, not #57. And he wasn't a starter eventually, he was a starter on his first day.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
    No, Russell Wilson would have been a terrible pick as a backup to Manning, and all 32 GMs in the league agreed with that assessment. He was running a very different system in Seattle that was optimized for his strengths, where the other quarterbacks on the roster were similar to his style, e.g., Tarvaris Jackson, and the Oline and receivers were as well, in addition to having a Marshawn Lynch training wheels running game to lean on. Russell Wilson would have gotten killed behind our Oline, and likely would not have been able to develop running a Manning-style pocket-passing offense. Which goes double if he was injured much of the time, which is likely given his style of play.

    Wilson is an illustration of how every so often lightning strikes. Once in a blue moon a sixth-round pick turns into Tom Brady. But you don't judge drafts by that yardstick. If the criticism of Elway is that he didn't pick up enough longshot lottery tickets that then paid off, then this whole discussion is beyond hope. The chances that a quarterback with Wilson's attributes develop into a franchise talent are very low -- not zero, but very low.

    Anyway, I'm really tired of the tedium of the absurd Russell Wilson critique. I seriously doubt you're lurking on the other 31 NFL boards blasting away at their GMs for not drafting Wilson. Which none of them did until the 3rd round. Even if you score it a failure for Elway, it's not a failure that makes him worse than other GMs, which I thought was the point of the anti-Elway posters in this thread. Which also goes for the Osweiler pick, which as I showed above was a pick that significantly outperformed statistical expectations for a quarterback taken at his draft position. You can criticize Elway if you want, just not for that.
    Lol, yes let's not get the guy who went to 2 SBs and won one, and has brought his team to the playoffs every season. Here's a secret: I don't care about other teams. I don't care who or what they missed on. I care about what my team misses on. So stop playing that card.

    And seriously, Osweiler was not the difference to getting to the SB50 or not. If he was, why is he a bum in the league, drifting around 4 different coaching staffs and 3 teams in 2 years? That is seriously the logic you're running with? You don't think, I don't know, the defense had anything to do with at SB50 win? Osweiler was a game manager that simply didn't turn the ball over as much as Manning and let the defense and run game do their job. On top of the stupid amount of luck that occurred that season with clutch wins and losses by other teams in the league. That was the formula that got us to the SB50, not Osweiler. Let's clear that myth once and for all.

    Yes, it is a chance that if Wilson is here he doesn't develop. But what is real is that Elway didn't believe in Osweiler enough to be his franchise guy, let him walk, and then promptly failed to get anyone decent at the QB position. And there Wilson is, going to the playoffs again and breaking records. You can make every tedium of excuse that he is an anomaly, but at the end of the day, what is noticeable is that we are good at missing on drafted franchise QBs. And my point is not to praise Russell Wilson to the heavens, or else I'd probably be a Seahawks fan. I'm not. My point is to say that while enjoying what Manning was doing for the team, Elway has passed multiple franchise QBs while opting for league drop outs and projects while the talent wasted away.
    Last edited by TheAsianPA; 11-25-2017 at 10:20 PM.
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