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  1. #1
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    Onside Kicks / Big O Stats / Other

    The NFL looks different this year. Rule changes have had a serious impact, in several areas. I've seen some of these stats before, but here's another article that details what is happening...

    https://biz1190.com/news/sports/succ...ly-disappeared

    Onside kicks are way down due to rule change:

    Onside kicks have always been a bad bet, just not like this. Thanks to the NFL's rules changes on kickoffs that were designed to reduce the risk of concussions, successful onside kicks have almost disappeared entirely from the game.

    Kicking teams have recovered three of 34 onside attempts this season, an 8 percent success rate that pales in comparison to last year's 23 percent conversion rate when 13 of 55 onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team.

    Over the last decade, that success rate has hovered around 15 percent. "It really has changed the game," Broncos special teams coach Tom McMahon said. "It's really hard to get that ball now." That's because teams can no longer overload to the left or right of the kicker, what special teams coaches used to call a "see-saw" formation. They must have five players on each side now — two inside the hashmarks, two outside and one rover — and they can't be bunched up or get a running start anymore, either.

    "You used to have six guys on one side, four on the other, and all kinds of formations and movement," McMahon said. "Can't have any movement anymore. So, you know you're going to get a stagnant, five by five. Everything's balanced. And, not only is it balanced, (coverage players) have to be 1 yard away and can't even move, even if they time it perfectly, they can't move until the ball's kicked."

    With six weeks left in the season, the NFL is on pace for the fewest onside recoveries (five) since 2009, when six of 41 onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team. Yet, it's hard to imagine the league going back and tweaking the new rules to give the kicking team more of a shot.

    "Those are some big collisions that happen if they have a running start," Denver kicker Brandon McManus said. "So, it's going to be interesting how the competition committee does it because the numbers are going to be so low that obviously teams are going to be questioning whether there's any chance of a successful way to do it."

    Only the Giants (1 for 4), Lions (1 for 3) and Jaguars (1 for 1) have been successful at onside kicks this season. "Yeah, it's killed it, it's tough," McMahon said. "Still, we've got to find a way. We can whine and cry, but we've got to find a way to get that ball somehow."


    And as for big O:

    The NFL has had the most points scored (7,791), most touchdowns (895) and most touchdown passes (570) through 11 weeks in its history. So far, half of the NFL's 32 teams have topped 40 points, including the Saints six times and the Chiefs four times. Remember that thriller in New England when the Chiefs lost 43-40 back in Week 6?

    Kansas City is now the first team since the Giants in 1966 to lose twice when scoring 40 points. The Chiefs are averaging 34.8 points in their nine wins and 45.5 points in their two losses.


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    With only 3 successful onside kicks so far, there is an increased emphasis on teams staying close, because their chances of back to back ball possessions is not looking too good. I am ok with that. It should not be too easy to recover the ball, given you have played close to 60 minutes of sound ball only to see your lead disappear via what some may call gimmickry.

    As for O....well Roger and The NFL gang, you got your wish. High scoring, loads of O.....more penalties on defenders who have to be very careful when they go near QBs, Receivers, and even RBs at times. What was once a good hit, is now a bad hit. What used to be solid play be a Dback, is now a possible flag. I firmly believe the pendulum needs to swing back a little, but with a cautionary consideration for player health and safety.

    But wow, imagine the KC situation, losing just 2 games so far, and scoring 45.5 points on average in both!!!

  2. #2
    broncolee is offline
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    Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller were talking about on side kicks on the radio.

    According to Kirwan, there have only been two surprise on side kicks this season, the rest were expected.
    Negs are Cowardly Acts of Nonsense. I wont Back Down.

  3. #3
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    I hate all the changes. If I were in charge of rules changing I'd be scared to death to change anything in a sport that rose itself to #1 in the country. It's number 1 ......you're not likely to raise that kind of ranking.

    Now refs don't know how to call plays - when plays are called no one knows what the outcome will be called .......... nothing will surprise you anymore. "oh that's a catch - no doubt about it" ....... uh uh -- anything can be called now and the saddest thing about it is there's ZERO accountability. No one takes responsibility for bad calls.

    Like Vance said - it's on him to make these challenges and if he gets it wrong- it's on him but if the refs get it wrong - ...... BAU. Why bother with replay if it doesn't fix plays? If it doesn't fix plays then just go back to the 'in the moment' officiating.

    I swear some of these officials think the game is all about them too .........

    It's a real shame the on sides kick is dead now. I'm actually surprised its 8% I would have guessed less. NFL can take all their changes and stick them right up their Shield
    Red 98

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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by dizzolve View Post
    I hate all the changes. If I were in charge of rules changing I'd be scared to death to change anything in a sport that rose itself to #1 in the country. It's number 1 ......you're not likely to raise that kind of ranking.

    Now refs don't know how to call plays - when plays are called no one knows what the outcome will be called .......... nothing will surprise you anymore. "oh that's a catch - no doubt about it" ....... uh uh -- anything can be called now and the saddest thing about it is there's ZERO accountability. No one takes responsibility for bad calls.

    Like Vance said - it's on him to make these challenges and if he gets it wrong- it's on him but if the refs get it wrong - ...... BAU. Why bother with replay if it doesn't fix plays? If it doesn't fix plays then just go back to the 'in the moment' officiating.

    I swear some of these officials think the game is all about them too .........

    It's a real shame the on sides kick is dead now. I'm actually surprised its 8% I would have guessed less. NFL can take all their changes and stick them right up their Shield
    I will say that I do like the catch rule changes, but I do not want to fire up that grill...here. But these inconsistencies by refs can win or lose games, and win or lose jobs. As I mentioned, Dallas players get passes late last night, which could have been game changers. But instead they get rewarded with a pic, and then an incompletion...though both were clear penalties. And they and their fans celebrate. BUT, if called correctly, the players get a lecture or even worse, and the fans might even go home unhappy.

    Bad calls will happen...but they should not happen right in front of refs, the same ones who can't wait to throw their flags.

    And BTW....the excited nature of them throwing flags is what I would like to fix first.

  5. #5
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    Onside kicks were always a bad bet, but with no running start it's almost impossible. And with the restrictions on where players can line up, you can't even try to do a load middle kick.

    But looking at how teams line up for onside kicks (8 guys are 10 yards from the ball, 2 guys are 7-10 yards behind the, outside the numbers, and 1 player back deep) I think kicking teams need to reevaluate how they handle these situations. A couple of ways that I think could increase the odds.

    1. A short pooch kick down the middle. You don't want this to be a deep kick, rather just over the front line landing around 10 yards behind them. This gives the coverage team a chance to get down and recover. The return team has the two guys outside the numbers who now need to try and get over to recover the ball, and a player who will be about 40 yards behind that trying to get up to recover it. I think this might be the way that makes the most sense. And because there's no one there the fair catch won't come into play, which means you don't need for the ball to hit the ground immediately after kicking it.

    2. Depending on where the returner is, try a pooch kick that's a little deeper and towards the sidelines. Around the 35-40 yard line of the return team.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    Onside kicks were always a bad bet, but with no running start it's almost impossible. And with the restrictions on where players can line up, you can't even try to do a load middle kick.

    But looking at how teams line up for onside kicks (8 guys are 10 yards from the ball, 2 guys are 7-10 yards behind the, outside the numbers, and 1 player back deep) I think kicking teams need to reevaluate how they handle these situations. A couple of ways that I think could increase the odds.

    1. A short pooch kick down the middle. You don't want this to be a deep kick, rather just over the front line landing around 10 yards behind them. This gives the coverage team a chance to get down and recover. The return team has the two guys outside the numbers who now need to try and get over to recover the ball, and a player who will be about 40 yards behind that trying to get up to recover it. I think this might be the way that makes the most sense. And because there's no one there the fair catch won't come into play, which means you don't need for the ball to hit the ground immediately after kicking it.

    2. Depending on where the returner is, try a pooch kick that's a little deeper and towards the sidelines. Around the 35-40 yard line of the return team.
    I agree that a pooch type kick is the next best thing, and will be exploited more, given the rule changes. I think the key is, trying to assess where the opponents line up so that you can either go short or more mid distance on he kick.

    Of course, kickers will try to develop even more confusing "effects" of the traditional style onside kicks (to make the ball bounce even crazier), but I think they have toyed with that for some time already.

    Bottom line, stay within one score late in games!!!!!

  7. #7
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    How about aiming a very low kick at a specific defender (provided they are 10 yards+ ahead of the kicker)? The odds on such a kick rebounding back to the offense must be reasonably good?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by GMTD View Post
    How about aiming a very low kick at a specific defender (provided they are 10 yards+ ahead of the kicker)? The odds on such a kick rebounding back to the offense must be reasonably good?
    I like that idea as well. But you really have to be accurate, and the ball can not hit the ground too far away from them. But I agree, if you could hit a line drive at a player, just about a foot or two in front of them, the ball could bounce anywhere.

  9. #9
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    What a dissapointing year for the NFL

    The officiating has been horrible this year in my opinion. The new roughing the passer rule is horrible and ruins the game. Officials have been inconsistent with calling it and missing other calls altogether. I hate it when a games outcome depends on an officials bad or no call. Just my opinion however.

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