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  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by SMR81 View Post
    Philly is a game or two away from having a QB controversy. Foles has been a clutch QB with limited team reps, and at this point has proven more than Wentz. If Foles takes them to the SB again, I would not be surprised to see them stick with him and trade Wentz for a plethora of picks.
    If there is anything to this talk of trading Von, it needs to be part of a package offer for Wentz.
    No way they choose Foles over Wentz. Wentz wins the games, too and he's shown more playmaking ability. Yes, he got hurt last year after, arguably, a MVP year. Foles came in and he knows this offense very well having been in it with Reid and with Pedersen and he did great. He is a good clutch player, but if he gets behind a couple scores he may be out of his element. Wentz can march a team down the field, ala, Elway style. Foles, can't.
    Would I be happy with Foles? Not really. Everyone knows he was done with football until Andy Reid took him in and re-established the guys confidence and desire to be a QB. He's had magical situations in Philly, but he didn't look so hot as the starter to start the season. The Eagles are a talented team who've done better than many SB champs the following year and Foles has been good but I'm not sure he's a quantum leap over Case.
    In fact, I'm not sure I like the idea of any veteran QB like Flacco. Time we stepped up and took a chance on a number of young, strong armed, QBs. Many NFL teams have a strategy to draft a QB every year. Most of the time they don't work out and especially those later round guys are seldom any good, but, sometimes you can strike gold. When the Chargers drafted Breeze he was seen as a gamble and they did it in the 2nd round. As I recall they had Flutie at the time so they didn't HAVE to draft a QB, they just did. Obviously, the Patriots have shown this strategy over and over and several times they have struck gold.
    The Cowboys didn't get Dak because they were brilliant.
    Anyway, my point is, with this years' QB class looking like Paxton Lynch QBs, maybe we go for 2 or 3 in later rounds and especially those with a strong arm.

  2. #182
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    It's more and more obvious as I think about it that finding a franchise QB in the draft is partially just a numbers game--you may need to draft a bunch of "maybes" who don't pan out before you hit the one guy--but once you do, the stability and wins brought in are worth the expended daft capital. For every Andrew Luck, there's a Ryan Leaf (or a Johnny Manziel, or a Paxton Lynch)--even "can't miss" prospects sometimes turn into busts.

    But it's very difficult to find that guy outside of the first or second rounds of the draft--yeah, I know that Tom Brady was a 6th-round pick, but how many other good starters right now were late-round picks? Out of nearly 50 QBs selected in rounds 3-7 from 2010-2015, only Wilson (3rd round) became a franchise-type QB; I might also be generous and give you Foles (3rd round), Cousins (4th round), and maybe even Tyrod Taylor (6th round)--I certainly don't consider those guys "elite" starters but I think they could count as solid starters. See my source list here. So out of nearly 50 QB selections over 6 drafts, one became the type of guy teams are really hoping for, and maybe three others became significant contributors. Less than 10% of the picks panned out at all. Compare that to the last 28 QBs selected in the first round, where, by my count, around 50% have had at least some success as starters, and about 30% have become franchise-type QBs (I'm counting Luck, Newton, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes). See my source list here.

    It's clear, then, that the way to find a franchise QB is to pick good prospects early in the draft and hope they work out, but even then you're looking at maybe 1 in 3 picks really being a "hit." Patience is required from both the team and the fans. But if you wait until Round 3, your odds of finding your guy decrease dramatically, to less than 10%. Sometimes teams need to kiss a lot of frogs before they get their "prince." Again, look at all of the trash picks wasted by Kansas City and Oakland before they lucked out with Mahomes and Carr.

    The best plan for teams without a truly established star QB, IMO, is to bring in the best veteran starter you can get (with a reasonable contract), and then draft the best prospect QB available to you in the first or second round to learn behind that veteran for a year or two. Late-round "fliers" on QBs may not be worth it unless you really are in love with a particular prospect for some reason; otherwise, those picks may be better used on positions with more of a track record of finding good players in those later rounds. Draft a new QB early every year until you find the one who is "the answer" for your franchise, and then you don't need to use early-round picks on a QB at all for the next several years because you are set.
    Last edited by MileHighInNY; 01-08-2019 at 01:42 PM.

  3. #183
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    Tua or Trevor. i think those are the 2 elite QBs to be found in the next 3 drafts.

    oakland raders gm
    latavis murray trade bait

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by MileHighInNY View Post
    It's more and more obvious as I think about it that finding a franchise QB in the draft is partially just a numbers game--you may need to draft a bunch of "maybes" who don't pan out before you hit the one guy--but once you do, the stability and wins brought in are worth the expended daft capital. For every Andrew Luck, there's a Ryan Leaf--even "can't miss" prospects sometimes turn into busts.

    But it's very difficult to find that guy outside of the first or second rounds of the draft--yeah, I know that Tom Brady was a 6th-round pick, but how many other good starters right now were late-round picks? Out of nearly 50 QBs selected in rounds 3-7 from 2010-2015, only Wilson (3rd round) became a franchise-type QB; I might also be generous and give you Foles (3rd round), Cousins (4th round), and maybe even Tyrod Taylor (6th round)--I certainly don't consider those guys "elite" starters but I think they could count as solid starters. See my source list here. So out of nearly 50 QB selections over 6 drafts, one became the type of guy teams are really hoping for, and maybe three others became significant contributors. Less than 10% of the picks panned out at all. Compare that to the last 28 QBs selected in the first round, where, by my count, around 50% have had at least some success as starters, and about 30% have become franchise-type QBs (I'm counting Luck, Newton, Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes). See my source list here.

    It's clear, then, that the way to find a franchise QB is to pick good prospects early in the draft and hope they work out, but even then you're looking at maybe 1 in 3 picks really being a "hit." Patience is required from both the team and the fans. But if you wait until Round 3, your odds of finding your guy decrease dramatically, to less than 10%. Sometimes teams need to kiss a lot of frogs before they get their "prince." Again, look at all of the trash picks wasted by Kansas City and Oakland before they lucked out with Mahomes and Carr.

    The best plan for teams without a truly established star QB, IMO, is to bring in the best veteran starter you can get (with a reasonable contract), and then draft the best prospect QB available to you in the first or second round. Late -round "fliers" on QBs may not be worth it unless you really are in love with a particular prospect for some reason; otherwise, those picks may be better used on positions with more of a track record of finding good players in those later rounds. Draft a new QB early every year until you find the one who is "the answer" for your franchise, and then you don't need to use early-round picks on a QB at all for the next several years because you are set.
    What's the stat? 1 in 42 QBs that the Broncos have ever Drafted in their history ever turned out to be anything. So, optimistically, we have a 1 in 42 chance of Drafting a QB, in ANY Round, and having that QB turn out. We Drafted Paxton Lynch when Dak Prescott was available. Lynch (1st Round Pick) is completely out of football, and Dak Prescott (4th Round Pick) just won a Playoff game. And who do we have in the FO who will pick our "Franchise" QB in the upcoming Draft? The same people who chose Lynch, Osweiler, Siemian, and Kelly.

    Flacco and Foles are likely to be available. THAT is our best shot at an upgrade.

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by gtown53 View Post
    What's the stat? 1 in 42 QBs that the Broncos have ever Drafted in their history ever turned out to be anything. So, optimistically, we have a 1 in 42 chance of Drafting a QB, in ANY Round, and having that QB turn out. We Drafted Paxton Lynch when Dak Prescott was available. Lynch (1st Round Pick) is completely out of football, and Dak Prescott (4th Round Pick) just won a Playoff game. And who do we have in the FO who will pick our "Franchise" QB in the upcoming Draft? The same people who chose Lynch, Osweiler, Siemian, and Kelly.

    Flacco and Foles are likely to be available. THAT is our best shot at an upgrade.
    There's possibly some Meh QB's, like Bridgewater and Fitzpatrick available. Outside of Foles it may be pretty ho hum anyway. I think Flacco's regressed into this level. I haven't heard anything about the 49ers 4th stringer that finished the season. He might be a bridge for a year or two, or maybe nothing more than Siemian 2.0

  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by AZBobalu View Post
    There's possibly some Meh QB's, like Bridgewater and Fitzpatrick available. Outside of Foles it may be pretty ho hum anyway. I think Flacco's regressed into this level. I haven't heard anything about the 49ers 4th stringer that finished the season. He might be a bridge for a year or two, or maybe nothing more than Siemian 2.0
    Nick Mullens you can build around!

  7. #187
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    Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) Tweeted:
    Kliff Kingsbury on Kyler Murray. #Sooners

    "Kyler is a freak."

    "I've never seen one better in high school and he's starting to show it now at the college level."

    "I'd take him with the first pick of the draft if I could."

    https://t.co/Zr09s49cBl https://twitter.com/soonergridiron/s...898694144?s=17

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) Tweeted:
    Kliff Kingsbury on Kyler Murray. #Sooners

    "Kyler is a freak."

    "I've never seen one better in high school and he's starting to show it now at the college level."

    "I'd take him with the first pick of the draft if I could."

    https://t.co/Zr09s49cBl https://twitter.com/soonergridiron/s...898694144?s=17
    I've read that the growing belief is that Murray will choose football over baseball but won't enter the draft this year, and will return to Oklahoma for another year.

  9. #189
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    The future quarterback has to be found in the draft. This is going to prove difficult since Kubiak is being set up to run the offense and he has a history of not playing young QBs.

    I would personally bring in Foles over Flacco but Flacco would be cheaper (provided he's released) and a better bridge quarterback.

    But if the Broncos don't chose a QB in the 1st round then I don't have much hope for 2019 or beyond. They just need to target the best quarterback and go for him.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo0730 View Post
    The future quarterback has to be found in the draft. This is going to prove difficult since Kubiak is being set up to run the offense and he has a history of not playing young QBs.

    I would personally bring in Foles over Flacco but Flacco would be cheaper (provided he's released) and a better bridge quarterback.

    But if the Broncos don't chose a QB in the 1st round then I don't have much hope for 2019 or beyond. They just need to target the best quarterback and go for him.
    When has Kubiak ever had a young & talented quarterback?
    Please donít say Paxton.

  11. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo0730 View Post
    The future quarterback has to be found in the draft. This is going to prove difficult since Kubiak is being set up to run the offense and he has a history of not playing young QBs.

    I would personally bring in Foles over Flacco but Flacco would be cheaper (provided he's released) and a better bridge quarterback.

    But if the Broncos don't chose a QB in the 1st round then I don't have much hope for 2019 or beyond. They just need to target the best quarterback and go for him.
    I agree the QB has to be found in this draft but I think we as fans need to brace for another Keenum year. It just doesn't make financial sense to dump him and take a 10 mil hit just to sign another mediocre bridge QB


    Andy Jano 2017 adopted Bronco

  12. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    I've read that the growing belief is that Murray will choose football over baseball but won't enter the draft this year, and will return to Oklahoma for another year.
    I am of the same thinking. Mainly because there is just too much chatter about it. In fact, there is almost too much for it not to be a reality. I am of the firm belief that all college players should finish their schoolin before gettin a job. I think that if we could get Mayfield as starter then add Murray as backup but cross train him to be a backup running back to Lindsey.... We could be a force to be reckoned with for the next decade or so. After getting rid of Bolles and rebuilding an oline.
    Last edited by Saddletramp; 01-09-2019 at 06:40 AM.

  13. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    I am of the same thinking. Mainly because there is just too much chatter about it. In fact, there is almost too much for it not to be a reality. I am of the firm belief that all college players should finish their schoolin before gettin a job. I think that if we could get Mayfield as starter then add Murray as backup but cross train him to be a backup running back to Lindsey.... We could be a force to be reckoned with for the next decade or so. After getting rid of Bolles and rebuilding an oline.
    I am also a fan of the 4 year guys, especially at QB. It's a big deal in my evaluation for the position.

    We will not be getting Mayfield. Mayfield will be a Brown for the foreseeable future. The Browns will not draft a 1st round QB, like Murray, in that time. Mayfield and Murray will likely not ever be on the same NFL team. Possibly in the distant future one regresses to a backup level player behind the other, but still unlikely they end up on the same team.

    Bolles does not need to be gotten rid of. Hes made serious strides since his rookie year. In the second half of this year he was one of the best tackles in the NFL, especially in pass pro. Maybe Munchie boy can continue to coach the penalties out of him if he's hired? Bolles' ceiling is still quite high should he ever put it all together.
    Last edited by Papa-pwn; 01-09-2019 at 08:07 AM.

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Papa-pwn View Post

    We will not be getting Mayfield. Mayfield will be a Brown for the foreseeable future. The Browns will not draft a 1st round QB, like Murray, in that time. Mayfield and Murray will likely not ever be on the same NFL team. Possibly in the distant future one regresses to a backup level player behind the other, but still unlikely they end up on the same team.
    While that is probably true I would still like to see it happen.

  15. #195
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    Elway at times can make his first round draft pick overly telegraphed. I think it's safe to say that if Drew Lock is available, then he's going to be drafted by the Broncos. And while not the worst choice, I don't think he is the best candidate. Grier and Jones in my opinion are better players than he is. Lock seems to excel only when the opposition is of lower quality. I haven't seen anything from Lock that makes me think he's going to take the next step in the NFL. I simply just don't trust Elway's ability to assess quarterbacks anymore in the draft, and hopefully this time Kubiak will make the decision on who they draft.

    Actually, there may even be a chance that no quarterback is drafted at all, since Kubiak may be Keenum's number one supporter.
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