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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JvDub95 View Post
    When you look at the top of the draft teams already have their QBs, you think there won't be some trading going on? You have to get to number 6 before you get to a team that needs a QB. Just because Denver is at 10 means nothing to me in regards to them being out of any QBs reach
    I think you're missing the point. I am saying that just because you're picking in the top 10 this year, it doesn't mean the quarterbacks available are true top 10 talents. Because it is a weaker class for quarterbacks this year as well, I am saying the question of "how often have we picked a top ten quarterback ?", is irrelevant to Elway missing on quarterbacks in the draft because this group will only be considered top 10 out of desperation.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by gerontion View Post
    As far as the 2018 draft, Denver had no shot at Mayfield. The Browns wanted him and weren't going to trade. No one was really sure what the Giants would do. Many thought they would take a QB. If Elway had beaten the Jets to the punch and traded for the #3 pick, he may have been out of luck. I suppose he could have tried. As far as 2016, Denver had the 31st pick that year. It would have taken a monumental haul of draft picks to move up to #1 or #2.

    If there are one or two QB prospects he covets, he's in a decent position to draft one this year. Moving from #10 to the top two is feasible, especially considering his relationship with Lynch in Tampa Bay.
    Yep. Just trading from 8 up to 2 the Eagles gave up their 1st, 3rd and 4th in 2016, their 1st in 2017 and their 2nd in 2018.

    That's to move up 6 spots. Looking at the NFL trade chart they use the 2nd pick 2600 points, the 31st is worth 600 points. That's the equivalent of the 4th overall pick and a little more. And since future picks are valued at the middle of the round after what they are this year (2020 first is valued at the 16th pick of round 2 this year), Denver would have had to have given up 4 future first round picks in addition to the 31st pick in 2016.

    http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnlimburg View Post
    I think you're missing the point. I am saying that just because you're picking in the top 10 this year, it doesn't mean the quarterbacks available are true top 10 talents. Because it is a weaker class for quarterbacks this year as well, I am saying the question of "how often have we picked a top ten quarterback ?", is irrelevant to Elway missing on quarterbacks in the draft because this group will only be considered top 10 out of desperation.
    The draft is like that every year though. The best players the draft has to offer are usually a handful of DBs, edge rushers or lately RBs. QBs are held to a higher standard because of their value.

    You still think this draft is weak, I happen to disagree. I think there will be a couple guys that will be worthy of top 10 selections. There are teams every year that will take a QB over other needs because it's so hard to find the right guy. That doesn't make it desperation it's just doing what you have to do.


    Andy Jano 2017 adopted Bronco

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by JvDub95 View Post
    The draft is like that every year though. The best players the draft has to offer are usually a handful of DBs, edge rushers or lately RBs. QBs are held to a higher standard because of their value.

    You still think this draft is weak, I happen to disagree. I think there will be a couple guys that will be worthy of top 10 selections. There are teams every year that will take a QB over other needs because it's so hard to find the right guy. That doesn't make it desperation it's just doing what you have to do.
    I personally see it as desperation, and I believe that is why so many fan bases and teams end up disappointed with the "top prospect" quarterbacks they take in the NFL draft. I think if guys were drafted where they should be, where the tape places them talent wise relative to other prospects, we wouldn't have such high expectations of guys who probably never had the talent level to even be considered franchise quarterbacks.

    I will never be on board for drafting any position just because you have to, or it is a massive need. I believe in best player available at positions of need, but not if you have say a Josh Allen versus a Bradley Chubb, and I feel Elway may have learned that in my opinion after over drafting both Lynch and Osweiler in the past.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Rod- View Post
    Or I was just making a little joke, without trolling. I personally don't feel Osweiler has great physical skills, certainly not a rocket arm; he's just tall and can move a litle bit [2.9 yards per carry].

    One of the problems with Elway's QB search is that he never made an aggressive move for one of the top QBs in a draft class. He went after Osweiler in the 2nd round, when 4 QBs had already been taken in the 1st round, and then took Paxton Lynch at #26 [after multiple QB-needy teams passed on him] when other teams traded all the way up to the #1 and #2 spots to get Goff and Wentz.

    Elway has never been in position to get one of the elite QB prospects in the draft. It looked like the Broncos had Mayfield and Darnold as their top QBs, but both were gone before the #5 pick. Josh Allen was a very controversial prospect, some even compared him to Paxton Lynch, and Josh Rosen also had some red flags that made him slide enough to become the 4th QB drafted in his class.

    I believe when people say Elway and the Broncos' front office loved Wentz and Darnold, but those QBs were not available. If Elway wants to be in position to get one of these QBs, he needs to correctly identify the prospect along with his crew and then make an aggressive move in the draft.

    So what does this suggest? To me, partly, it suggests he's not willing to give up future 1st round picks to move up. He was never getting Luck or RGIII, and thank the Lord he didn't bite on Tannehill or Weeden. Does it mean he's terrible at evaluating QB's? I don't know, maybe, but Osweiler had a 2nd round grade from most clubs, and multiple teams had Lynch at the bottom of the first round on their boards. As for missing on Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins (if you want to call that a miss), every team did multiple times with 2 of those 3 guys.

    To your point though, is his lack of aggression because he doesn't know or because he's overly confident that you don't have to trade away the farm to get a franchise QB?

    I hope he does go after a high end QB even if it means paying a price to move up. I'm just not confident he will. Honestly though, if we are in a position to draft the Ohio State kid (Fields, obviously not Haskins) or the Clemson kid (Lawrence) in 2021, the bright light they will bring with them, for me at least, will wash away the darkness we have to endure to get there.
    Last edited by Letswinplz77; 01-10-2019 at 09:25 PM.
    All it takes to win is doing whatever it takes to win: COMMITMENT

  6. #21
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    Top 10 QBs in 2011 was Cam Newton #1, Locker #8, Gabbert #10 - Ponder was #12! In 2012 Luck, RGIII, Tannehill #8. 2013 there were no top 10s but EJ Manuel was #16 In 2014 Bortles #3. 2015 Winston, Mariota top 2 picks. 2016 Goff, Wentz #s 1 and 2. 2017 Trubisky #2, Mahomes #10.

    Gabbert is still playing but he is not what I would call a "franchise" QB. RGIII early in his career looked like that franchise QB but he quickly became not a franchise QB, Tannehill is still playing and is the starter but, franchise QB? Maybe, it depends on how you define "franchise QB" I would say he is nothing more than a starter on some teams. Manuel was not very good ever and the second pick that season was Gino Smith in the 2nd round. Bortles is still starting but it is said that he is not going to be for the Jags, he has a playoff win as the starting QB. Winston and Mariota?? I would say the jury is still out on those 2 ... it is starting to look like they are OK? Not "franchise QBs"?? I don't know. Goff looks good now but early on things weren't looking great, Wentz?? Not sure if he is actually a "franchise QB".
    5 of these QBs have not/never established themselves as "franchise QBs". 4 of these have succeeded to be franchise QBs at this point in their career. That leaves 4 as Not yet determined = Winston, Mariota, Wentz and Trubisky. Even though Mayfield had a good/great season we don't know the future and Darnold was up and down but it is too early to say how these QBs will be, we'll see in a year or two.

    To sum this up, IMO the odds are still only ~50/50 that drafting a QB in the top 10 will result in a "franchise QB". Elway has not even drafted one in the top 10. Drafting outside of top 10 but still in the first round is less than a 50/50 proposition. Lynch was an outright bust but Osweiler has actually been more successful than the vast majority of 2nd round picks and he was a late 2nd rounder too.

    I looked at 7 "big boards" for this draft and only one of them had a QB in their top 10 (draftMaven, I don't know anything about them) that was Haskins. The other highest I think was 17 IIRC. At least 3 of the 7 boards did not have Haskins as the top QB... DraftTek has Grier at #34, Drew Lock at #40 then Jones and Haskins. Hard to know if any of these will be great QBs but if Elway has his eye on one/two and they are still there at #10 I think he should pull the trigger. For them to move up it will cost too much IMO. There is a lot of talent on the defense in this draft ... take BPA.

  7. #22
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    I guess I am from the school of....find your QB, and then life falls into place. This is a QB driven league and has been for a while. We all know that the rules have changed to support QBs, therefore the gap between a lower tier QB and a good one has widened in my opinion. Why? Because a good QB excels at making things happen, and if you can get the refs on your side, it just expands on one's capabilities. Whereas a lower tier QB is going to be less effective for the most part, not make things happen, and sometimes not get the calls, because he is not influencing the refs decisions. So a Mahomes or Brees will get their usual stats plus some extras....whereas a Bortles or Keenum is not accurate enough, or decisive enough to make plays close enough to be called. Hey, if they do not throw it close, or to the open guy, there is probably a less likelihood that the refs are going to flag someone. It may be in degrees, but reputation and skill will be more of a contributor to penalties than "just being on the field, behind the center".

    So in this league you find your QB. Once you get him, you build around him. UNLESS you have an impenetrable D, and a decent run game perhaps, I think you want to put the QB situation to bed, as early as possible. THEN, you never have to enter FA or The Draft or even consider trades, based on finding that QB. You go BPA as often as possible. Clearly QBs are not usually the BPA....teams tend to stretch and reach, and overpay. But say you're KC now....you know that you need D help, and you go BPA as often as you can to fix your problems. But you may not go for an Edge Rusher, if there is a shutdown Corner on the board. Or if the best ILB in a decade shows up, you grab 'em even if one of your D needs is a bit more pressing.

    And even so, if you stumble on a great O player, you strongly consider...because BPA adds value. If you have extra talent in some areas, you make a deal. Like others here, I love BPA most of the time. BPA / Need combined, often occur. It's not a pure science.

    Anyway....I prefer to find your guy, even if it costs you in bit in draft capital, or if it means paying a bit extra via FA....as long as you love the guy! Once you have that guy in your midst, you sleep better knowing you can go FA and draft with less pressure, but with more simple strategy....ADD VALUE with every decision!
    Last edited by CanDB; 01-11-2019 at 12:26 PM.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    I guess I am from the school of....find your QB, and then life falls into place. This is a QB driven league and has been for a while. We all know that the rules have changed to support QBs, therefore the gap between a lower tier QB and a good one has widened in my opinion. Why? Because a good QB excels at making things happen, and if you can get the refs on your side, it just expands on one's capabilities. Whereas a lower tier QB is going to be less effective for the most part, not make things happen, and sometimes not get the calls, because he is not influencing the refs decisions. So a Mahomes or Brees will get their usual stats plus some extras....whereas a Bortles or Keenum is not accurate enough, or decisive enough to make plays close enough to be called. Hey, if they do not throw it close, or to the open guy, there is probably a less likelihood that the refs are going to flag someone. It may be in degrees, but reputation and skill will be more of a contributor to penalties than "just being on the field, behind the center".

    So in this league you find your QB. Once you get him, you build around him. UNLESS you have an impenetrable D, and a decent run game perhaps, I think you want to put the QB situation to bed, as early as possible. THEN, you never have to enter FA or The Draft or even consider trades, based on finding that QB. You go BPA as often as possible. Clearly QBs are not usually the BPA....teams tend to stretch and reach, and overpay. But say you're KC now....you know that you need D help, and you go BPA as often as you can to fix your problems. But you may not go for an Edge Rusher, if there is a shutdown Corner on the board. Or if the best ILB in a decade shows up, you grab 'em even if one of your D needs is a bit more pressing.

    And even so, if you stumble on a great O player, you strongly consider...because BPA adds value. If you have extra talent in some areas, you make a deal. Like others here, I love BPA most of the time. BPA / Need combined, often occur. It's not a pure science.

    Anyway....I prefer to find your guy, even if it costs you in bit in draft capital, or if it means paying a bit extra via FA....as long as you love the guy! Once you have that guy in your midst, you sleep better knowing you can go FA and draft with less pressure, but with more simple strategy....ADD VALUE with every decision!
    Great post. Question:
    If BPA is not Haskins, Grier, Murray or Jones, in other words QB do we take a great defensive player again or gamble and hope one of these QB's at 10 is worth the gamble?

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by WYBRONCO View Post
    Great post. Question:
    If BPA is not Haskins, Grier, Murray or Jones, in other words QB do we take a great defensive player again or gamble and hope one of these QB's at 10 is worth the gamble?
    Herein lies the dilemma. To get "your guy", when do you shell out? Hopefully one of the rising QBs is available close to when we draft, so that we do not have to pay out much more than a 1st. Because in my opinion, if by April the guy we want starts to shine, it's time to go get him. He will probably not be The BPA, but as mentioned, sometimes BPA/Need get closely aligned. Why? Because a talented QB, who may lead your team for 10 or more seasons, is worthy of sacrificing some BPA. This is one exception to the BPA rule....because Need (a good QB) is worth more to me than a talented player at any other position. Lets be clear....a "Good" starting QB is worth too much to look the other way.

    My problem is when teams reach for almost any QB, in desperation. Never a good move.

    So....IF we really love a QB, and he has shown us a load of good stuff through the combine, and all the other "tests".....and based on my opinion of who we currently have, I would say that we should risk a realistic amount of draft capital to land that player. if things go according to plan, we sleep good for 10 or more years knowing we have "our guy".

    But if we do not love any of the guys, we should go BPA or a really close Need/BPA player...say an Oliner, ILB or CB. Either way, we need to at least draft a QB at some point, because we may be able to find that Russ Wilson. Not dreaming, just thinking. Because we need to stock up. Our current stable of QBs is not impressive.

    However....because I think we need to make a move sooner than later, I still hope we consider other options. Can we make a deal for a QB? And if nothing else, we should consider FA, to at least provide some serious competition. A few of them are ok.

  10. #25
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    Feb 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    Herein lies the dilemma. To get "your guy", when do you shell out? Hopefully one of the rising QBs is available close to when we draft, so that we do not have to pay out much more than a 1st. Because in my opinion, if by April the guy we want starts to shine, it's time to go get him. He will probably not be The BPA, but as mentioned, sometimes BPA/Need get closely aligned. Why? Because a talented QB, who may lead your team for 10 or more seasons, is worthy of sacrificing some BPA. This is one exception to the BPA rule....because Need (a good QB) is worth more to me than a talented player at any other position. Lets be clear....a "Good" starting QB is worth too much to look the other way.

    My problem is when teams reach for almost any QB, in desperation. Never a good move.

    So....IF we really love a QB, and he has shown us a load of good stuff through the combine, and all the other "tests".....and based on my opinion of who we currently have, I would say that we should risk a realistic amount of draft capital to land that player. if things go according to plan, we sleep good for 10 or more years knowing we have "our guy".

    But if we do not love any of the guys, we should go BPA or a really close Need/BPA player...say an Oliner, ILB or CB. Either way, we need to at least draft a QB at some point, because we may be able to find that Russ Wilson. Not dreaming, just thinking. Because we need to stock up. Our current stable of QBs is not impressive.

    However....because I think we need to make a move sooner than later, I still hope we consider other options. Can we make a deal for a QB? And if nothing else, we should consider FA, to at least provide some serious competition. A few of them are ok.
    If Elway truly covets one or two of the QB prospects he needs to move up to at least the #2 pick. Just bite the bullet. It would probably cost two 1st round picks and one 2nd round pick, similar to what Philly did to move up from #8 to #2. I personally think the Fangio hire represents a "win now" mentality, and that Elway will ride with Keenum and try to surround him with as much help as possible. We'll find out in late April.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    I guess I am from the school of....find your QB, and then life falls into place. This is a QB driven league and has been for a while. We all know that the rules have changed to support QBs, therefore the gap between a lower tier QB and a good one has widened in my opinion. Why? Because a good QB excels at making things happen, and if you can get the refs on your side, it just expands on one's capabilities. Whereas a lower tier QB is going to be less effective for the most part, not make things happen, and sometimes not get the calls, because he is not influencing the refs decisions. So a Mahomes or Brees will get their usual stats plus some extras....whereas a Bortles or Keenum is not accurate enough, or decisive enough to make plays close enough to be called. Hey, if they do not throw it close, or to the open guy, there is probably a less likelihood that the refs are going to flag someone. It may be in degrees, but reputation and skill will be more of a contributor to penalties than "just being on the field, behind the center".

    So in this league you find your QB. Once you get him, you build around him. UNLESS you have an impenetrable D, and a decent run game perhaps, I think you want to put the QB situation to bed, as early as possible. THEN, you never have to enter FA or The Draft or even consider trades, based on finding that QB. You go BPA as often as possible. Clearly QBs are not usually the BPA....teams tend to stretch and reach, and overpay. But say you're KC now....you know that you need D help, and you go BPA as often as you can to fix your problems. But you may not go for an Edge Rusher, if there is a shutdown Corner on the board. Or if the best ILB in a decade shows up, you grab 'em even if one of your D needs is a bit more pressing.

    And even so, if you stumble on a great O player, you strongly consider...because BPA adds value. If you have extra talent in some areas, you make a deal. Like others here, I love BPA most of the time. BPA / Need combined, often occur. It's not a pure science.

    Anyway....I prefer to find your guy, even if it costs you in bit in draft capital, or if it means paying a bit extra via FA....as long as you love the guy! Once you have that guy in your midst, you sleep better knowing you can go FA and draft with less pressure, but with more simple strategy....ADD VALUE with every decision!
    i have always been from the school of through football is won and lost in the trenches and you build from inside out.

    oakland raders gm
    latavis murray trade bait

  12. #27
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    Dec 2015
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    5,026
    Because hitting on a qreat qb is more about luck than anything. We like to proclaim GM's as great in these regards when they hit on one qb. In almost no other profession or aspect of life do we call someone hitting a jackpot once a skill. How often do GM's hit on a second great qb? My guess would be less than a handful of GM's in the history of the NFL have done so. It's about who is available to you and when.

  13. #28
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    Aug 2007
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    993
    Showing our hand during the draft process played a part in this too. Hopefully this year JE uses a little more misdirection.

  14. #29
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    Aug 2007
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    993
    I remember JE being high on Tannehill, Mahomes, and Mayfield. All went higher than expected. Need to be quiet and hopefully we can have some better luck.

  15. #30
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    Apr 2016
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    416
    I dont think hes been particularly terrible tbh. I think it's just been a lot of bad luck. OS was taken in the 2nd which isn't really much of an investment for a top Qb and he turned out to be backup quality. Trading up for Pax was pretty popular with some people on this board until he fell on his face.
    Drafting a Qb is mostly a crap shoot but I do agree that looking for the drive to win should be most important

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