Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 23
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    DENVER
    Posts
    7,327

    Football Outsider's Comprehensive 2019 Denver Broncos Preview

    If you want to view the whole 9 page report yourself, you'll find the link below:

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...sample_DEN.pdf

    Very comprehensive analysis.

    Here are some excerpts:

    "We expect their defense to be downright average in 2019, and that defensive coordinator fip is a large part of it. It generally takes time to adapt to a new defensive coordinator and a new system, as the previous system’s square pegs fnd their places in the new scheme’s round holes. Fangio is no exception; it generally takes a couple seasons for his defenses to really start clicking (Table
    1). Fangio’s frst year in Chicago saw the Bears rank 31st in DVOA, though the Bears were just a skosh less talented than last year’s Broncos were. There’s a foor to how bad a defense with this much talent can be, but some transitional pains are to be expected in 2019."

    "Saying Joe Flacco is the pinnacle of mediocre is an insult to mediocrity, and has been for years. From 2015 through 2017, Flacco had negative double-digit passing DVOA, never rank- ing in the top 25 at the position. His 2018 season was his best in four years, and that saw him getting benched for a rookie quarterback whom the Ravens barely trusted to throw the ball."

    "Flacco has now been below league average in adjusted net yards per attempt in each of the past four seasons, yet remained Baltimore’s starter. He is only the 11th quarterback since the merger to manage that extended feat of below-average play without getting benched, joining luminaries such as Mark Sanchez, Joey Har- rington, and Rick Mirer.
    • Despite his reputation for being a solid deep-ball pass- er, Flacco regularly ranks near the bottom of our failed completion statistics. A failed completion is a dump-off or checkdown that doesn’t meaningfully advance the ball; think 2-yard screens on frst-and-10, or any third- down completion that ends short of the sticks. Flacco’s 2016 season had 144 failed completions, the all-time record. Second-place was Flacco’s 2017 season.
    • Flacco’s pretty deep ball is often listed as one of his strengths, but it’s overstated. His average pass traveled 8.4 yards through the air in 2018, which ranked 13th in the league, but his average completion was went just 5.9 yards through the air, so there were a lot of beauti- ful deep balls bouncing off the turf—13.5 percent of his passes were listed as overthrown in 2018. Flacco ranked 28th out of 34 qualifed quarterbacks in DVOA on passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfeld, be- low such noted deep-ball slingers such as Nick Foles, Derek Carr, and—yes—Case Keenum."

    "Elway’s response to all this is to claim that the 34-year-old Flacco is “just getting into his prime,” noting that he “plays the position exactly how [Denver] envisions it being played.” He points to Flacco’s decent 2014 season under Gary Kubiak as reason for optimism, as Scangarello’s offense will presum- ably be similar to Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which bears some resemblance to Kubiak’s system as Shanahan was Kubiak’s offensive coordinator for two years in Houston. That’s a game of telephone tag, not a reason for optimism, even when fltered through the lens of preseason platitudes. Flacco has been an anchor for Baltimore for years; there’s little reason to suspect that he’s going to have a breakout season and reverse years of decline just because his zip code changed."

    "No, there’s no reason to suspect that the Broncos have licked their quarterback conundrum just yet, and the rest of their offense is more potential and possibility than it is a func- tioning NFL unit at this point in time. Combine that with some transitional pains on defense, and you get a very bleak picture for the 2019 Broncos."

    "If sanity prevails, Flacco will at some point be benched for a rookie quarterback yet again in 2019."

    Man, they are not going easy on us. But it can't all be bad, right? Here's some good stuff:

    "The Broncos have a set of young skill players who could form the basis for a solid offense when a quarterback finally does arrive"

    "Broncos also added Ja’Wuan James, who should be a massive im- provement over Jared Veldheer at right tackle, and look to get guard Ron Leary back from injury. Second-round pick Dalton Risner (Kansas State) is another rookie who should be starting from Day 1. He’ll be penciled in at guard, but he’s versatile enough to play anywhere along the line of scrimmage. Los- ing Matt Paradis hurts, but the offensive line could be much improved if all the “ifs” work out."

    "Lock has a cannon for an arm and is willing to trust it to make the big throws, sometimes to his detriment. He’s mobile enough and has the pocket awareness to step up and avoid sacks. His feld vision is excellent as well, and he can quickly scan through and process coverages. He needs to work on his touch and accuracy, and his footwork could use an overhaul as well, but there are enough positives there to be worth considering.
    Most importantly, he at least has the potential to be a long- term starter. Even if Flacco repeats his best season of the past four years in Denver, he’s still both old and mediocre. Flacco is not the quarterback who will take the Broncos back to the playoffs."

    "The best thing Denver can do this season is evaluate and develop the young talent that will make up the core of the team for the next fve years...There's plenty of that young talent to go around."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Las Manzanitas, NM
    Posts
    30,913
    I like to watch real football games played by real football players on a real football field using a real football, but that's just me.
    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    9,470
    This looks more like another entry for the Attaco-Flacco thread since that's the bulk of what was excerpted from F.O.

    Flacco has a chance to make a fresh start here, bounce back and prove that he can still cut it as a starter. He'll have to prove himself just like anybody else in this position and we won't really know anything until he makes the attempt in this new offense in a new setting. And it may take a little time to get it rolling, for rookie Scangarello and Muchak's new OL as well. So I'm going to kick back and wait, give them all some rope, and temper my expectations.
    Superbowl 50 MVP Von Miller on February 7th, 2016

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    9,470
    Quote Originally Posted by samparnell View Post
    I like to watch real football games played by real football players on a real football field using a real football, but that's just me.
    That's so old-fashioned and WEIRD! What about virtual reality and STATS!?

    Superbowl 50 MVP Von Miller on February 7th, 2016

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    13,186
    They seem to project us winning 6+ games with a 14.5% shot of making playoffs.

    The 6+ games part sucks but considering where we been the last couple years with the horrible coaching I will take the 14.5% shot at playoffs!
    Win lose or tie Bronco fan til I die

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    7,455
    I guess I don't get it. Flacco was 13th last year in average intended air yards. Ahead of Rivers, Brady, Roethlisberger, Luck, Brees, Stafford, Newton, Cousins, Keenum, etc. I guess they're looking at average completed air yards, in which case he would have been ahead of all of those guys except Luck and Rivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the league in average completed air yards.

    I can't put numbers on scheme (well I could, but it would take forever), so that makes me wonder what the deal is on catch rate of their top receivers.
    From most receptions to least:

    Evans 62%
    Humphries 72%
    Godwin 62%

    Snead 65%
    Crabtree 54%
    Brown 43%

    This might explain why both Winston and Fitzpatrick completed a lot of passes downfield, along with scheme, and losing virtually all of the time. That, or maybe they're both just awesome at throwing deep passes. Or just like to throw deep passes. Who knows. I'm probably not going to get that from staring at numbers unless I look at Fitzpatrick's passing history, Koetter and Monken's coaching history, '18 Buccaneer passing attempts, and game script. Even then, I'll probably just find out that it's a combination of all those things, which will put the kaibosh on using air yard stats to make conclusive quarterback comparisons altogether. And that might in turn hurt Football Outsider writer guy's feelings, so I'm going to leave that one alone.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    DENVER
    Posts
    7,327
    Quote Originally Posted by L.M. View Post
    This looks more like another entry for the Attaco-Flacco thread since that's the bulk of what was excerpted from F.O.

    Flacco has a chance to make a fresh start here, bounce back and prove that he can still cut it as a starter. He'll have to prove himself just like anybody else in this position and we won't really know anything until he makes the attempt in this new offense in a new setting. And it may take a little time to get it rolling, for rookie Scangarello and Muchak's new OL as well. So I'm going to kick back and wait, give them all some rope, and temper my expectations.
    I mean, he is the weakest link on the team. This is more of an assessment of the entire team, and when their assessment is less than glowing it makes sense that a significant portion of their criticism is dedicated to the QB since said QB is a bottom 5 starter at the position.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    10,013
    Oh wow, a team that has won 11 games in 2 seasons isn't predicted to do well. Shocker.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    DENVER
    Posts
    7,327
    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    I guess I don't get it. Flacco was 13th last year in average intended air yards. Ahead of Rivers, Brady, Roethlisberger, Luck, Brees, Stafford, Newton, Cousins, Keenum, etc. I guess they're looking at average completed air yards, in which case he would have been ahead of all of those guys except Luck and Rivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the league in average completed air yards.

    I can't put numbers on scheme, so that makes me wonder what the deal is on catch rate of their top receivers.
    From most receptions to least:

    Evans 62%
    Humphries 72%
    Godwin 62%

    Snead 65%
    Crabtree 54%
    Brown 43%

    This might explain why both Winston and Fitzpatrick completed a lot of passes downfield, along with scheme, and losing virtually all of the time. That, or maybe they're both just awesome at throwing deep passes. Or just like to throw deep passes. Who knows. I'm probably not going to get that from staring at numbers unless I look at Fitzpatrick's passing history, Koetter and Monken's coaching history, '18 Buccaneer passing attempts, and game script. Even then, I'll probably just find out that it's a combination of all those things, which will put the kaibosh on using air yard stats to make conclusive quarterback comparisons altogether. And that might in turn hurt Football Outsider writer guy's feelings, so I'm going to leave that one alone.
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good? Particularly at passes exceeding 15 yards.
    Last edited by Papa-pwn; 08-28-2019 at 12:04 PM.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    5,226
    Even with the defense transitioning, it is going to monumentally better than it was the year before under Joe woods and Vance. They completely missed their take on that one. That will prove to be their most innacurate stance that made.

    I agree that flacco and the offense will suck pretty well, just like always.

    We are better then a 6 win team. I do not know how much better, but better. Our team has the talent to be 12 wins, but we also have the newness of everything and flacco to have us at 8 wins.
    For now....
    1. Reuben Badass LB; 2. Joe Mixon RB; 3. Jake Butt TE; 3B Sid Jones DB; 4. Bucky Hoges TE; 6. Ryan Switzer WR. Trade for Sheldon Richardson.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    DENVER
    Posts
    7,327
    Quote Originally Posted by underrated29 View Post
    Even with the defense transitioning, it is going to monumentally better than it was the year before under Joe woods and Vance. They completely missed their take on that one. That will prove to be their most innacurate stance that made.

    I agree that flacco and the offense will suck pretty well, just like always.

    We are better then a 6 win team. I do not know how much better, but better. Our team has the talent to be 12 wins, but we also have the newness of everything and flacco to have us at 8 wins.
    I agree. I say 7 to 9 wins. The defense will respond quicker than they think to the coaching change.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    7,455
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good?
    Well, I mean, we can do that sure. But then I could go, "What about the fact that Flacco is a better quarterback than Case Keenum and Drew Lock right now?" I like to use stats too, but to do it right you have to compile a lot of data or you're going to be mislead.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    10,013
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    I mean, he is the weakest link on the team. This is more of an assessment of the entire team, and when their assessment is less than glowing it makes sense that a significant portion of their criticism is dedicated to the QB since said QB is a bottom 5 starter at the position.
    Wait...did Bolles (or the O-Line) get markedly better? Same with the Kick/Punt returners?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Taos, New Mexico
    Posts
    3,343
    Quote Originally Posted by samparnell View Post
    I like to watch real football games played by real football players on a real football field using a real football, but that's just me.
    https://youtu.be/6bjnRrvx88Y
    [

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    the gulf of mexico
    Posts
    15,522
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good? Particularly at passes exceeding 15 yards.
    There’s a myriad of reasons why you can’t judge a player solely on stats. I love stats and think they provide a big clue into how well a player plays, however it is not the be all end all.

    Why is Flacco not completing these deeper passes? That’s the question that needs to be answered (by the coaches) and it can’t be answered by stats, well theoretically it could but that requires a lot of statistics, some that aren’t even being charted. Saying he struggled at passes over 15 yards is too vague to definitely state he’s bad at it. What coverage is the defense playing? Is it press of off coverage? How much separation was there between the target and the defender? Was there pressure or no? How close was the pressure if there was? Did Flacco step into the throw or did he not step into the throw? Is this a pass play that they’ve set up over the course of the game? Was the pass in a good spot for the WR? Did the WR drop it? Was there miscommunication and therefore the WR wasn’t close to the ball? Was it a good pass into a tight window where the WR just lost to the DB defending the pass? Is the WR good at catching contested passes or is that something he struggles with?

    Stats can illustrate many things, there was an article that came out about how Lamar Jackson had a better rookie season than guys like Manning, Luck, Darnold, and a bunch of other QBs and it was mainly based off YPA and QBR. But it doesn’t take into account the scheme that he played in and that it’s easier to complete passes when the entire defense is geared up to stop the run because they don’t respect his arm. If you only looked at the stats from Tebow’s first playoff game one might think he had a chance to be a decent QB.

    Would Rivers be considered an elite QB if he wasn’t able to dump off so many passes to his RBs for easy yards over the years? Would Brady be the GOAT if he wasn’t playing in a heavy short option route scheme with WRs he’s perfectly in sync with? What if Manning had played in the Kubiak offense his entire career, would he be considered the same QB he is now? The marriage of a QB to the scheme he is playing in and the WRs that he has with him can not be understated and as such you can’t definitively measure greatness off stats and stats alone. Brady to Welker, Edelman, and Gronk, Manning to Harrison, Wayne, and Clark, Rivers to LT and Gates where one of those guys has to be covered by a LB.

    And that leads me to this, who is Flacco’s versions of those guys? Well over the course of his career he’s had his best success with guys like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith all guys who excelled at catching contested passes and he’s had a dump off option in Ray Rice with some solid TE play as well. Do we have a veteran on this team that can catch contested passes? I think Sanders fits that mold, I think Sutton and Patrick can grow into that role as well. Do we have a reliable dump off option at RB? Phillip is electric in space so he’s a candidate, Booker and Riddick are proven threats out of the backfield so I would check that off as well. Do we have a solid TE? Not at all, hopefully someone steps up but we’re missing this big time. Good running game and a strong defense to go with all that and Flacco could have a bounce back season in the W/L column.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •