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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.c...0-of-time.html

    Thursday, November 1, 2018
    Aaron Donald Double-teamed 70% of the Time on Pass Plays?
    OPINION
    By John Turney

    ďWhile cruising through Twitter I came across this Tweet that stats that according to the NFL Next Gen Stats superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald be being double team blocked 70% of the timeó

    After a couple of clarification Tweets with Mr. Long it turns out it was 70% of the time on passing plays. It seemed high to me, having a little bit of experience with these kinds of esoteric stats over the years and also doing some film grading myself and mentioned similar things HERE about Pro Football Focus's research.

    So, I pulled up the All-22 film from NFL Game Pass and watched all the defensive snaps of Donald on passing downs. In my view, I was very generous in grading what plays were double teams. If an offensive lineman or back was even assigned to Donald but never really engaged I gave that a "double team" grade. If there was a tackle-end game or end-tackle game and two players, over the course of the snap engaged, I counted that.

    All said I came up with a very high figure, an amazing figure in my view, of 52% of the passing snaps Donald was doubled. Fifty-two percent!. Having some knowledge in this, that is as high as it can get for a season. You can find games where a player is doubled more, but not many, if any seasons.

    So, what about the Nex Gen Stats figure of 70%?

    I cannot say that I am right and they are wrong. I just wish we could find out the methodology and how the 70% number was arrived at. Certainly, I am fallible and could have made errors but 18% off? I don't think so. So, while I won't say I am right and they are wrong but by the same token, I am not going to just accept that I am wrong and they are right.

    So, here is one person asking if the Next Gen folks were grading the All-22 or if they were using the chips and computer to do for this stat like they did for the Fastest NFL players or Fastest Sacks or Hurries something like "real-time location data, speed, and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field".

    I'd like to know if this was something done visually or on a computer screen. Not that anything would be wrong, but I'd like to know because I think I can see a double team and as mentioned, grading very generously my view is Donald is double teamed on pass players around 52%.Ē
    The bold part goes right back to the very thing I been discussing again in this thread about what baseline are we talking about.

    IMO those kind of plays count if we are talking about the attention offenses give a defender. If an offensive player did not add his body to the block but he did nothing but stand there and watch the defender engaged to another offensive player that still counts as attention given by offense.

    If we are talking about what beat the defender than we do not count those kinds of plays because even if an offensive guy just stood there looking at the defender getting beat....the defender was still beat without the added offensive player.

    Also I ask again what is your definition of consistently double teamed? In your view is any defender in the NFL consistently double teamed? Is any OLB consistently double teamed? What would consistent need to be? 20% of the pass plays? 50%? 75%?

    It constant maybe a relative term in relation to how all offenses across the NFL play OLBs?
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  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    I acknowledged the post and purposely didnít respond to the comments/questions about the game. The analysis didnít provide any data, rather it offered questions about what counts as a double team vs what doesnít. Itís fine to disagree on what constituted a double team here or there. If youíve broken down the film, provide the number of times he was double teamed in your opinion.

    Youíve been doing home projects - same here which is a nice coincidence! If youíre tired from the day no worry about breaking the numbers down from that game.
    To be clear I provided qtr, time and offensive player numbers. It was also a question of double team vs triple team as the double team was obvious in that play but the triple fell under the "offensive attention" vs "defender got beat by" question I been trying to bring up. No one responding to that data told me that people are not even willing to be clear what we were discussing and further attempt to try and discuss points we can not even agree on a baseline were futile.

    Like I been trying to say

    If we can not even agree what is a double/triple team or what is offensive attention or what is consistent then trying to have this discussion is going to be impossible.
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  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hadez View Post
    To be clear I provided qtr, time and offensive player numbers. It was also a question of double team vs triple team as the double team was obvious in that play but the triple fell under the "offensive attention" vs "defender got beat by" question I been trying to bring up. No one responding to that data told me that people are not even willing to be clear what we were discussing and further attempt to try and discuss points we can not even agree on a baseline were futile.

    Like I been trying to say

    If we can not even agree what is a double/triple team or what is offensive attention or what is consistent then trying to have this discussion is going to be impossible.
    What is classified as offensive attention though? Having a bunch of 1 step and 3 steps drops to get the ball out very quick? Keeping a RB/TE in to block even if it isnít necessarily for a specific player? What about double teams caused by the defensive play call? A DE dropping back freeing up a lineman, running a player into the A gap? What about the defender running into another lineman trying to split a gap even if that lineman wasnít trying to block him at all?

    I think each scenarios holds some merit. And at the end of the day I donít think anyone would count the quick passing game as a form of double team even though itís probably the most effective way to limit a pass rusher in addition to running the ball consistently, not even well, just forcing the defense to respect it.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hadez View Post
    The bold part goes right back to the very thing I been discussing again in this thread about what baseline are we talking about.

    IMO those kind of plays count if we are talking about the attention offenses give a defender. If an offensive player did not add his body to the block but he did nothing but stand there and watch the defender engaged to another offensive player that still counts as attention given by offense.

    If we are talking about what beat the defender than we do not count those kinds of plays because even if an offensive guy just stood there looking at the defender getting beat....the defender was still beat without the added offensive player.

    Also I ask again what is your definition of consistently double teamed? In your view is any defender in the NFL consistently double teamed? Is any OLB consistently double teamed? What would consistent need to be? 20% of the pass plays? 50%? 75%?

    It constant maybe a relative term in relation to how all offenses across the NFL play OLBs?
    John Turney counted those plays and still found 18% fewer double-teams than Next Gen. His analysis calls into question using that stat for how often a player is double-teamed.

    Youíre parsing the discussion by getting into definitions of what constant and consistently mean. Youíre also making the discussion about how the double-team stat is measured. The analysis by John Turney illustrates why that Next Gen stat is not a valid data point.

    The analysis by johnlimburg of seven games demonstrated Von does not get all the attention. In the game vs Raiders had Von only being double-teamed twice on pass plays.

    I have yet to see a substantive case showing Von gets all the attention.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 09-15-2019 at 08:56 AM.

  5. #65
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    He is the least of our problems.

    He'll finish with 12-14 sacks and 25-30 QB hits as he always does. Of the all the worries on the team QB, OL, DB, S. TE we are really going to focus on Von? Ok.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlaccoTruther View Post
    He is the least of our problems.

    He'll finish with 12-14 sacks and 25-30 QB hits as he always does. Of the all the worries on the team QB, OL, DB, S. TE we are really going to focus on Von? Ok.
    Taking a cap hit of $73 million over 2019-21 for Von is part of the problem. Addressing other positions is more difficult when that much money is tied to Von. Elway restructured Vonís contract to take the heaviest cap hit when his play will likely be on the decline.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by beastlyskronk View Post
    What is classified as offensive attention though? Having a bunch of 1 step and 3 steps drops to get the ball out very quick? Keeping a RB/TE in to block even if it isn’t necessarily for a specific player? What about double teams caused by the defensive play call? A DE dropping back freeing up a lineman, running a player into the A gap? What about the defender running into another lineman trying to split a gap even if that lineman wasn’t trying to block him at all?

    I think each scenarios holds some merit. And at the end of the day I don’t think anyone would count the quick passing game as a form of double team even though it’s probably the most effective way to limit a pass rusher in addition to running the ball consistently, not even well, just forcing the defense to respect it.
    OK just talking about offensive attention

    IMO if a guy is assigned to block a defender that counts as attention. I would count the following things

    1. offensive player makes contact with defender and continues contact thru the play
    2. offensive player makes contact and then moves to another responsibility - example TE/WR/RB chips then goes out on route
    3. offensive player does not make contact but does nothing but wait to make contact with defender in question

    The last one is more in question. Where an offensive player first looks at defender in question as his first responsibility in the play but then looks around for another defender to block. It appears on this play the offensive player is either allowed to block a defender of opportunity or has made his own decision to block a defender of opportunity once he decides the defender in question has been taken care by another offensive player(s)

    The difference being if we are talking about "all the offensive attention" ... or some form of that phrase that keeps coming up...then we count the offensive attention if the offensive player makes contact or not.

    If we are talking about the defender's ability to make plays...than imo we only count the guys who make contact....which is what I think posters did on this forum when they looked at the same game film I did...even tho they repeatedly post all the offensive attention.
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  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    Taking a cap hit of $73 million over 2019-21 for Von is part of the problem. Addressing other positions is more difficult when that much money is tied to Von. Elway restructured Von’s contract to take the heaviest cap hit when his play will likely be on the decline.
    I said that would be a problem when we asked Von to restructure his contract so we could sign players in the 2018 offseason. IMO his contract was fine before we decided to move some of his cap from 2018 to future years.
    Win lose or tie Bronco fan til I die

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    John Turney counted those plays and still found 18% fewer double-teams than Next Gen. His analysis calls into question using that stat for how often a player is double-teamed.

    You’re parsing the discussion by getting into definitions of what constant and consistently mean. You’re also making the discussion about how the double-team stat is measured. The analysis by John Turney illustrates why that Next Gen stat is not a valid data point.

    The analysis by johnlimburg of seven games demonstrated Von does not get all the attention. In the game vs Raiders had Von only being double-teamed twice on pass plays.

    I have yet to see a substantive case showing Von gets all the attention.
    I do not think you ever will see it no matter what is shown

    If we define the difference between performance and offensive attention then you will go to consistency. Then we will argue about what consistency is. Then we will split hairs between every stat or play that goes against your opinion until we have spent an insane amount of time on something you will never accept anyways,

    So even tho most of the NFL world thinks Von is an elite pass rusher including talking heads, his peers, opposing offensive coaches go ahead and keep claiming his is the problem because imo you do not even understand how opposing offenses treat OLBs in general and how they plan for them so it is hard to discuss how Von is treated in relation to other OLBs and elite outside pass rushers.
    Last edited by Hadez; 09-15-2019 at 09:13 AM.
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  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hadez View Post
    I do not think you ever will see it no matter what is shown

    If we define the difference between performance and offensive attention then you will go to consistency. Then we will argue about what consistency is. Then we will split hairs between every stat or play that goes against your opinion until we have spent an insane amount of time on something you will never accept anyways,

    So even tho most of the NFL world thinks Von is an elite pass rusher including talking heads, his peers, opposing offensive coaches go ahead and keep claiming his is the problem because imo you do not even understand how opposing offenses treat OLBs in general and how they plan for them so it is hard to discuss how Von is treated in relation to other OLBs and elite outside pass rushers.
    Thatís a convenient way to avoid making a substantive case. You havenít shown anything other than a questionable stat and getting into the weeds about the definition of a double team. Itís easier to take the discussion down that path than to break down eight games. If you want others to be open to another perspective, make the case with analysis of those eight games. Itís okay if thereís a play here or there that doesnít meet a hypothetical definition a double-team.

    As far as the comment about Vonís status as an elite player, that isnít the main theme of this discussion. The question goes back to whether or not Von gets ďall the attentionĒ. Itís a myth that he gets all the attention.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 09-15-2019 at 09:35 AM.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    That’s a convenient way to avoid making a substantive case. You haven’t shown anything other than a questionable stat and getting into the weeds about the definition of a double team. It’s easier to take the discussion down that path than to break down eight games. If you want others to be open to another perspective, make the case with analysis of those eight games. It’s okay if there’s a play here or there that doesn’t meet a hypothetical definition a double-team.

    As far as the comment about Von’s status as an elite player, that isn’t the main theme of this discussion. The question goes back to whether or not Von gets “all the attention”. It’s a myth that he gets all the attention.

    It was also supposed to be a myth that Von Miller ever gets triple team attention and when I posted the play with time that he got triple team attention and what game it happened in everyone conveniently forgot that I mentioned the game and you admitted not wanting to talk about that example.

    I have reported the "Myth" status of Next Gen Stats thru NFL.com which claim Von Miller was 6th on the list of double teamed defenders and requested access to the data for more understanding.
    Last edited by Hadez; 09-15-2019 at 09:54 AM.
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  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hadez View Post
    It was also supposed to be a myth that Von Miller ever gets triple team attention and when I posted the play with time that he got triple team attention and what game it happened in everyone conveniently forgot that I mentioned the game and you admitted not wanting to talk about that example.

    I have reported the "Myth" status of Next Gen Stats thru NFL.com which claim Von Miller was 6th on the list of double teamed defenders and requested access to the data for more understanding.
    One play? Showing Von was triple-teamed on one play in one game doesnít matter in the context of getting ďall the attentionĒ.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hadez View Post
    I said that would be a problem when we asked Von to restructure his contract so we could sign players in the 2018 offseason. IMO his contract was fine before we decided to move some of his cap from 2018 to future years.
    Agreed.....

  14. #74
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    Von MIA again today. Not sure heís as elite as most fans believe. I think some fans still see Von as the player from the 2015 playoff run and SB 50.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    Von MIA again today. Not sure heís as elite as most fans believe. I think some fans still see Von as the player from the 2015 playoff run and SB 50.
    Heís missing Malik Jackson.

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