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  1. #1036
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    Think so huh?
    FWIW KC's run D gives up 4.9 ypa which ranks 29th, and gave up 2051 yards rushing during the season which is 128 ypg, I believe, and ranks 26th. They did a good job containing Derrick Henry on his 19 rushing attempts in the AFCCG. Maybe they went back and looked at what Denver did against Tennessee when they held him to 28 yards on 15 attempts.
    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

  2. #1037
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    @Chiefs (- 7.5) vs Titans - Derrick Henry rushes 15 times averaging 4.6 yards per carry going into Tennessee's last drive of the first half.
    Chiefs (-1.5) vs 49ers - ?

    Tennessee Titans rushing offense - 3rd in total yards
    Tennessee Titans passing defense - 24th in total yards
    San Francisco 49ers rushing offense - 2nd in total yards
    San Francisco 49ers passing defense - 1st in total yards

  3. #1038
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    Quote Originally Posted by obi-groo View Post
    KC has proven that they can stop the run. They will stop the run and force the 9'ers to pass.
    one game does not mean they've shown they can stop the run. Especially when Tennessee panicked and abandoned who they were quickly after falling behind. Keep in mind Tennessee had been running decent in the first half.

    There's also a difference between the two run games, Tennessee is more of a straight ahead downhill team, with San Francisco it's going to be heavy wide zone. They'll have to keep their lanes to the sidelines and not over pursue, because if they do, they open the cutback lane. And I would guess that KC's d-line will see plenty of cut blocks, especially Chris Jones. Get the LB's moving sideways to defend the stretch, cut the backside of the line, open up the cutback lanes.

    It's certainly not impossible to defend, but very different from what they saw against Tennessee.

  4. #1039
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    one game does not mean they've shown they can stop the run. Especially when Tennessee panicked and abandoned who they were quickly after falling behind. Keep in mind Tennessee had been running decent in the first half.

    There's also a difference between the two run games, Tennessee is more of a straight ahead downhill team, with San Francisco it's going to be heavy wide zone. They'll have to keep their lanes to the sidelines and not over pursue, because if they do, they open the cutback lane. And I would guess that KC's d-line will see plenty of cut blocks, especially Chris Jones. Get the LB's moving sideways to defend the stretch, cut the backside of the line, open up the cutback lanes.

    It's certainly not impossible to defend, but very different from what they saw against Tennessee.
    I keep seeing how KC's D is ranked really low in various categories but if you have been paying attention then you would know that the D is much better than it once was. Averaging all the numbers from the entire season gives you a false picture of where the D is really at. They are much better than average.

  5. #1040
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    Think so huh?
    Am I not to believe my eyes?

  6. #1041
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    Quote Originally Posted by obi-groo View Post
    I keep seeing how KC's D is ranked really low in various categories but if you have been paying attention then you would know that the D is much better than it once was. Averaging all the numbers from the entire season gives you a false picture of where the D is really at. They are much better than average.
    How has the defense fared defending runs to the perimeter? Hitchens and Ragland arenít known for their sideline to sideline speed so do they try to compensate and overpursue? Or do they just try and string the runs out so Mathieu or Sorensen can come up and make the play? Your CBs will have to be aggressive in the run game if they want to stop it. Itíll be hard for Suggs/Clark to set a strong edge against the combo of McGlinchey/Kittle and Staley/Kittle. Then of course thereís the very real threat of a play action and with guys like Kittle, Sanders, and Samuel itís a big play opportunity waiting to happen.

    The Chiefs best defense will be to build a lead and force Jimmy G to pass. But even then heís gone toe to toe with some of the top QBs and has been one of if not the top QB in trailing/clutch situations. The Chiefs will have to score and score as you say to win this one. I think this game will be a shootout despite the contrasting styles.

  7. #1042
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    Quote Originally Posted by beastlyskronk View Post
    How has the defense fared defending runs to the perimeter? Hitchens and Ragland arenít known for their sideline to sideline speed so do they try to compensate and overpursue? Or do they just try and string the runs out so Mathieu or Sorensen can come up and make the play? Your CBs will have to be aggressive in the run game if they want to stop it. Itíll be hard for Suggs/Clark to set a strong edge against the combo of McGlinchey/Kittle and Staley/Kittle. Then of course thereís the very real threat of a play action and with guys like Kittle, Sanders, and Samuel itís a big play opportunity waiting to happen.

    The Chiefs best defense will be to build a lead and force Jimmy G to pass. But even then heís gone toe to toe with some of the top QBs and has been one of if not the top QB in trailing/clutch situations. The Chiefs will have to score and score as you say to win this one. I think this game will be a shootout despite the contrasting styles.
    That's how SF loses. Defense surrenders points early. 9ers lose the initiative. KC's defense is built for that. I think Reid will go into this game anticipating that he's going to face more resistance to the big plays than he's seen thus far in the post season. My expectation is he'll have some great stuff ready to counter pass rush and move the ball more methodically early on. He doesn't want to get into a hole against SF like he did against HOU and TEN, because the 49ers will bleed them dry. I'm sure he has a ton of respect for all the ways Kyle can run the football (they got a small taste of that early against TEN), and do different things in the passing game off of the same look (TEN did this early as well). Kyle is a master at this. And like you and others have touched on, this is a different style of rushing than they saw against Tennessee and Houston.

    I think we'll see more runs from Reid, but not conventionally. Andy Reid is definitely not that conservative. First few drives are going to be massive in this game, I think. If it does go the way of a shootout like you said, I would favor the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn't turn the ball over. The under is more favorable to the 9ers. The over to the Chiefs. I don't think it'll be much higher than the over (56) though, because I think the 9ers will force the Chiefs to be more methodical, and keep the game where Shanahan wants it.

  8. #1043
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    Just jumped back in this, so sorry if I am being repetitive. If Mahomes and the KC O have their engine revving nicely, even against a good SF D, it does change the mix enough...in that, KC's D can then hold the fort reasonably well. And if KC can limit the run game, and put some pressure on Jimmy G, I can see them being champs. Conversely, SF is the total team, as long as JG shows up. They have the better run game and D, two key elements in any playoff game.

    In my opinion, the key factors in this game:
    1) Can SF reduce Mahomes' effectiveness enough to keep the score down
    2) Will KC's D contain the run game to some extent
    3) Can Jimmy G make a statement about playing on the big stage, or will KC pressure him enough to limit his production
    4) Will one of the TEs be a much bigger game star
    5) Which Oline has the better day (SF needs it more, IMO)

    I am not picking a winner, but I can see a score of 30 - 27. This is the kind of SB I can really look forward to!
    Last edited by CanDB; 01-24-2020 at 10:16 AM.

  9. #1044
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    I like this SB related article, re: The Patriots. They are clearly not "my team" but there seems to be less glow with them making it to "The Dance". He calls it "Patriots Fatigue".

    https://triblive.com/sports/tim-dahl...er-bowl-again/

  10. #1045
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    That's how SF loses. Defense surrenders points early. 9ers lose the initiative. KC's defense is built for that. I think Reid will go into this game anticipating that he's going to face more resistance to the big plays than he's seen thus far in the post season. My expectation is he'll have some great stuff ready to counter pass rush and move the ball more methodically early on. He doesn't want to get into a hole against SF like he did against HOU and TEN, because the 49ers will bleed them dry. I'm sure he has a ton of respect for all the ways Kyle can run the football (they got a small taste of that early against TEN), and do different things in the passing game off of the same look (TEN did this early as well). Kyle is a master at this. And like you and others have touched on, this is a different style of rushing than they saw against Tennessee and Houston.

    I think we'll see more runs from Reid, but not conventionally. Andy Reid is definitely not that conservative. First few drives are going to be massive in this game, I think. If it does go the way of a shootout like you said, I would favor the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn't turn the ball over. The under is more favorable to the 9ers. The over to the Chiefs. I don't think it'll be much higher than the over (56) though, because I think the 9ers will force the Chiefs to be more methodical, and keep the game where Shanahan wants it.
    I do think KC can have success running the ball and I think theyíll be more balanced. San Fran plays a wide 9 front and there are natural running lanes just from the alignment. But with the 49ers probably trying to contain Mahomes in the pocket the DEs will be able to react better against the run but they have to be careful not to get walled off especially against draw plays and runs between the guard and tackle. McCoy hasnít played yet in the postseason but he could have a monster game against this style of defense if he does play.

    Granted the 49ers have been great against the run all season. Iím still a bit hurt over the Jim Bates wide 9 defense when we had Sam Adams, Amon Gordon, Simeon Rice, and John Engleberger.

  11. #1046
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    The 49ersí run game will be a problem for the Chiefsí defense because they create space for the backs in a different way than most teams.
    Negs are Cowardly Acts of Nonsense. I wonít Back Down.
    No Matter How Stupid Your Comments Are!
    Still Not Backing Down!!!

  12. #1047
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    Quote Originally Posted by obi-groo View Post
    I keep seeing how KC's D is ranked really low in various categories but if you have been paying attention then you would know that the D is much better than it once was. Averaging all the numbers from the entire season gives you a false picture of where the D is really at. They are much better than average.
    As long as there is games left on the schedule there's always going to be questions. And looking at just a small portion of the season gives one false hope, they've faced a lot of bad offences late in the season. San Francisco is the best offense they've faced since week 3, and it's the best defense that they've faced since week 15 (although using the same argument you have about KC, one could argue the Patriots weren't nearly as good as their season averages).

    It should be a good matchup and a good game.

  13. #1048
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    Quote Originally Posted by beastlyskronk View Post
    I do think KC can have success running the ball and I think they’ll be more balanced. San Fran plays a wide 9 front and there are natural running lanes just from the alignment. But with the 49ers probably trying to contain Mahomes in the pocket the DEs will be able to react better against the run but they have to be careful not to get walled off especially against draw plays and runs between the guard and tackle. McCoy hasn’t played yet in the postseason but he could have a monster game against this style of defense if he does play.

    Granted the 49ers have been great against the run all season. I’m still a bit hurt over the Jim Bates wide 9 defense when we had Sam Adams, Amon Gordon, Simeon Rice, and John Engleberger.
    I don't think the wide 9's matter much. They're just playing hard contain with the ends, but it's still a 1 gap defense and if everyone does their jobs they've got those gaps taken care of. The will just has to be vigilant about keeping weak B controlled. Of course there are ways to mess with KC in that regard, occasionally line up in an under front, shift to an under front after Mahomes has called a play at the line, or loop the defensive end into weak B, and blitz the Will outside for contain.

    The idea of shifting the D-line also gives the benefit that it sometimes draws false starts from the o-line as they react to defenders moving.

  14. #1049
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    During the season the Niners' offensive play calls were 49% run, 51% pass. In the playoffs it is 77% run, 23% pass, so far. That makes for an interesting scouting report for Steve Spagnuolo. Shanahan's script will show KC's defensive alignment especially on anticipated run downs. If he wants to specifically see how KC plays it, he could rely on some self scouting and run when expected in order to get a good look. KC may be forced to make some adjustments which can be attacked. I would expect SF to run a lot of PAP and use Kittle and Juszczyk a fair amount on those, because they can both slide off of what looks like run blocks and get open short/intermediate because they are eligible.
    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

  15. #1050
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    kc better not be keying in totally on the run & forget about the pass or they will get burnt badly between kittle, sanders & samuels

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