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Thread: Corona virus

  1. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    One blessing that has come out of this is I quit biting my finger nails, after 39 years.
    Me too, Lol. It's been a bit longer than 39 years.


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  2. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    The spread rate likely isn't nearly as high as the media and hysteria are making it out to be. The spread rate is high when you're in close quarters with someone who has it (like a nursing home) but the actual spread rate won't be what they're modelling.

    Some models have the infection rate at 70% which is absolutely insane. No pandemic has ever been that high. And the worst pandemic (the 1918 Flu) where between 20-50 million people died worldwide, had an infection rate of around 30%. Models cause the hysteria.

    Since you're boasting about Canada lets talk about some of our negatives in this with modelling:
    -Projected infection rate of 70%, no chance.
    -The models have 19% of people infected being hospitalized. The actual number (According to Dr. Tam) is 6%
    -The models have 25% of the 19% that are hospitalized will end up in ICU. The actual numbers right now are just 2% of the 6% ending up in the ICU.
    -And of course the fatality rate they'e saying 2.5%, it's currently 1% in Canada.

    All of these are what Canadian models are currently spitting out, but they're setting the parameters to get these results.

    Now don't get me wrong, this is absolutely a serious virus, especially to the vulnerable population. But this isn't going to be the end of life on earth, it's going to end up somewhere between the 1968 flu (1 million died worldwide) or the Avian Flu outbreak from 1956-1958 where approximately 2 million people died worldwide.

    My final point, with everything shutting down, people losing their jobs, and people having their businesses going under, one has to wonder what the coming months will look like as far as mental health issues, and suicide rates? And that's going to be a big question when this is all over: was the cure worse than the disease?
    During the great depression the suicide rate did increase, but still resulted in less than 2% of deaths. The actual life expectancy of the average person increased during that time: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

    Worrying about the economy over the pandemic is backwards thinking. Those numbers you currently have are pre-peak while the models are post-peak. Yes, they are not going to be 100% accurate, no model is. You are also right this is not a world-ending phenomena. However you are presenting a small snip of data and thinking it is going to project to when hospitals run out of respirators, PPE, and hospital beds (which most countries have not hit yet, but are about to). Take a look at the world data and see how quickly this is hitting the fan:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    It took 64 days to hit 25,000 deaths worldwide. It has now taken 8 days to hit the next 25,000. This is with countries trying to flatten the curve as much as possible. Can you imagine the amount of deaths if people weren't taking extreme precautions? This is going to get a lot worse before it is better.

  3. #453
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    Quote Originally Posted by Canmore View Post
    Me too, Lol. It's been a bit longer than 39 years.
    Hubby has also joined the no nail biting club. Yay!
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  4. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by CinnaMunMun View Post
    During the great depression the suicide rate did increase, but still resulted in less than 2% of deaths. The actual life expectancy of the average person increased during that time: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

    Worrying about the economy over the pandemic is backwards thinking. Those numbers you currently have are pre-peak while the models are post-peak. Yes, they are not going to be 100% accurate, no model is. You are also right this is not a world-ending phenomena. However you are presenting a small snip of data and thinking it is going to project to when hospitals run out of respirators, PPE, and hospital beds (which most countries have not hit yet, but are about to). Take a look at the world data and see how quickly this is hitting the fan:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    It took 64 days to hit 25,000 deaths worldwide. It has now taken 8 days to hit the next 25,000. This is with countries trying to flatten the curve as much as possible. Can you imagine the amount of deaths if people weren't taking extreme precautions? This is going to get a lot worse before it is better.
    No doubt it's getting bad, but it will not come anywhere close to a 70% infection rate, which is what every model is based on. Right now Italy is at a 0.1% infection rate. Spain has a 0.25% infection rate. New York has a 0.5% infection rate. And that's based purely on the number of infected people we know about, the reality is that there are likely a lot more people who were infected and either didn't know or weren't tested. So to be doing all of this based on models that have an infection rate of 70% when nowhere in the world will get close to that is ridiculous.

    60,000 deaths is a big number, no doubt. But that number is thrown around without any context. It's not a big number in relation to 7.8 billion people. 150,000 people on average die every single day. 1660 people die every day from cancer. And oddly they've stopped doing cancer surgeries because of Covid.

    As for suicide rates in the Great Depression, it's not an apples to apples comparison of what I'm talking about. The loss of jobs and money may be equal, but the current situation also includes stay home orders, and isolation/quarantine. That takes a mental toll as well.

    EDIT: The 1660 people that day of cancer everyday is only in the US. Worldwide it's about 27,400.

    Covd-19 is no doubt a serious virus, but I think if this happened 10 years ago (before social media) it's not the same reaction by governments.
    Last edited by Butler By'Note; 04-03-2020 at 03:31 PM.

  5. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    As EddieMac pointed out, the word boast here means speaking with pride about. Boasting isn't a bad thing. I'm going to boast to everyone about my son the moment he's born.

    If I were going to be negative I would have used the word smug, which I didn't because I wasn't trying to paint what you were saying as a negative.

    BTW to get back to the comment from a few days ago about more testing, I talked to my friend who's the higher up in the Winnipeg hospital and asked him about testing. He was honest with me, the reason that there isn't more testing is because for every 10 tests they did, they averaged two positive tests. So it was considered wasteful to do so many tests to prove that people with no symptoms were negative when they were tested.
    I will respect this response. Given these times, I just want to make it clear that:

    1) We should be working together, and not apart. Even if we "debate", we are in this together.
    2) And given the tragedy we are living, I do not want to come across as someone who thinks "we" Canadians are leading the way and even close to virus free. This is a long term situation, and nothing means anything right now. And my concern was that I would even be a wee bit "boastful" in a time like this. There is a connotation that could be misleading to others. And it would be awful of me to comment that way given all those who are suffering, here, in The US and across the planet. Just wanted to make sure others did not read it that way. I am proud, yes, of most of what I see so far in this country, and hopeful in a treatment or other healthcare innovation, given the expertise. That would be wonderful, because all could share. And yes, I like some aspects of our stimulus package. Similarly I see fellow canucks doing dumb things as we speak. Keep your distance dudes!!
    3) Yes, I am a bit of a flag waver in normal situations, but that's pretty typical of most citizens, wherever they reside. I always think that if I was born in The US or another country, I'd still be a flag waver.


    So Butler....thank you for your response. Lets carry on. Hope you and everyone here is doing well.

  6. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    No doubt it's getting bad, but it will not come anywhere close to a 70% infection rate, which is what every model is based on. Right now Italy is at a 0.1% infection rate. Spain has a 0.25% infection rate. New York has a 0.5% infection rate. And that's based purely on the number of infected people we know about, the reality is that there are likely a lot more people who were infected and either didn't know or weren't tested. So to be doing all of this based on models that have an infection rate of 70% when nowhere in the world will get close to that is ridiculous.

    60,000 deaths is a big number, no doubt. But that number is thrown around without any context. It's not a big number in relation to 7.8 billion people. 150,000 people on average die every single day. 1660 people die every day from cancer. And oddly they've stopped doing cancer surgeries because of Covid.

    As for suicide rates in the Great Depression, it's not an apples to apples comparison of what I'm talking about. The loss of jobs and money may be equal, but the current situation also includes stay home orders, and isolation/quarantine. That takes a mental toll as well.

    EDIT: The 1660 people that day of cancer everyday is only in the US. Worldwide it's about 27,400.

    Covd-19 is no doubt a serious virus, but I think if this happened 10 years ago (before social media) it's not the same reaction by governments.
    I understand where you're coming from, but I'm going to have to disagree with that. COVID-19 has two differentiating factors from previous pandemics (like H1N1 Swine Flu). The basic virus reproduction number or R0 (R-nought) value for COVID-19 is currently between 2 - 2.5. By comparison, H1N1 was 1.46. Based on current known statistics, this virus is more contagious than regular seasonal flu with a much higher mortality rate.

    I think the true mortality rate is markedly less than the reported 1% - 2% due to some 80% of infections producing only moderate to minimal symptoms (resulting in a significant unknown number of non-reported infections). However, not having any mitigating factors to "flatten the infection curve," would completely cripple emergency healthcare globally, and result in millions dead throughout the pandemic life-cycle, until herd immunity is achieved.

    I think a fair question is, would the millions dead, and millions more sick, and millions more barred from basic healthcare due to lack of resources, impact the economy comparably to just shutting it down temporarily? I could only imagine the hoarding and panic of the masses as the body count mounts and hospitals collapse. With no mitigation efforts, herd immunity would be rapidly achieved, but at a significant cost. The economy would likely be obliterated either way...the lives lost won't be returning. Just my
    To infinity...and beyond.

  7. #457
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    Quote Originally Posted by EddieMac View Post
    You seem stuck on the word boast....its not necessarily negative as you seem to think..

    verb (used without object)

    to speak with exaggeration and excessive pride, especially about oneself.
    to speak with pride

    verb (used with object)
    to speak of with excessive pride or vanity:
    to be proud in the possession of:

    noun
    a thing boasted of; a cause for pride:
    exaggerated or objectionable speech; bragging:
    FTR...I disagree with me being "stuck" on the word, given the situation. It's one thing to be boastful about a newborn for example, but much different to boast about how you are doing relative to others, in a pandemic. And even in the event of a newborn, I can describe a specific time when boasting to another couple would have been selfish and irresponsible, when empathy was the correct response. There's a time and a place.

    One does not brag in times like these for sure, unless it is as close to a "global" brag as you can get.

    And again, after looking back through my posts in this thread, I do not see much in the way of boastfulness, which is the crux of this discussion. Hope for a local research team to find a treatment and soon, yes. Appreciation for a decent stimulus package, yes. Those hardly qualify for boastfulness, no matter the premise. Mainly facts, and needed hope and financial support for those in need.

  8. #458
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    Tough times... Living down town Toronto and see empty streets is wild.

  9. #459
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    FTR...I disagree with me being "stuck" on the word, given the situation. It's one thing to be boastful about a newborn for example, but much different to boast about how you are doing relative to others, in a pandemic. And even in the event of a newborn, I can describe a specific time when boasting to another couple would have been selfish and irresponsible, when empathy was the correct response. There's a time and a place.

    One does not brag in times like these for sure, unless it is as close to a "global" brag as you can get.

    And again, after looking back through my posts in this thread, I do not see much in the way of boastfulness, which is the crux of this discussion. Hope for a local research team to find a treatment and soon, yes. Appreciation for a decent stimulus package, yes. Those hardly qualify for boastfulness, no matter the premise. Mainly facts, and needed hope and financial support for those in need.
    Disagree all you like... it’s my observation based on your post in response to Butlers comments on your posts... we all can agree to disagree with each other’s responses. That doesn’t make any of them wrong.
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  10. #460
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    Here is a good graph.
    In my eyes it shows good optimisim here.
    Your opinion might be different than miine.

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...phic-datapack/

  11. #461
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    As EddieMac pointed out, the word boast here means speaking with pride about. Boasting isn't a bad thing. I'm going to boast to everyone about my son the moment he's born.

    If I were going to be negative I would have used the word smug, which I didn't because I wasn't trying to paint what you were saying as a negative.

    BTW to get back to the comment from a few days ago about more testing, I talked to my friend who's the higher up in the Winnipeg hospital and asked him about testing. He was honest with me, the reason that there isn't more testing is because for every 10 tests they did, they averaged two positive tests. So it was considered wasteful to do so many tests to prove that people with no symptoms were negative when they were tested.
    Congratulations! I like happy news.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lumiere View Post
    I understand where you're coming from, but I'm going to have to disagree with that. COVID-19 has two differentiating factors from previous pandemics (like H1N1 Swine Flu). The basic virus reproduction number or R0 (R-nought) value for COVID-19 is currently between 2 - 2.5. By comparison, H1N1 was 1.46. Based on current known statistics, this virus is more contagious than regular seasonal flu with a much higher mortality rate.

    I think the true mortality rate is markedly less than the reported 1% - 2% due to some 80% of infections producing only moderate to minimal symptoms (resulting in a significant unknown number of non-reported infections). However, not having any mitigating factors to "flatten the infection curve," would completely cripple emergency healthcare globally, and result in millions dead throughout the pandemic life-cycle, until herd immunity is achieved.

    I think a fair question is, would the millions dead, and millions more sick, and millions more barred from basic healthcare due to lack of resources, impact the economy comparably to just shutting it down temporarily? I could only imagine the hoarding and panic of the masses as the body count mounts and hospitals collapse. With no mitigation efforts, herd immunity would be rapidly achieved, but at a significant cost. The economy would likely be obliterated either way...the lives lost won't be returning. Just my
    I got the swine flu. I wasn't happy because I'm vegetarian. Like, how dare it?

    Sorry. It's late and the mind kind of gets fuzzy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Remedy View Post
    Tough times... Living down town Toronto and see empty streets is wild.
    Hi, Rem! Good to see you.
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  12. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by Remedy View Post
    Tough times... Living down town Toronto and see empty streets is wild.
    Hey Rem....I'll tell my kids not to come within 6 feet of you. They both live there, I have a pretty good handle on the situation. One of them does fight the good fight as a medical person, though in the mental healthcare side. I expect her caseload to increase in the next few moths. Then again, she works in the same hospital as those that have it...so like any parent, it's a worry. It's a tough thing these days, to worry about your own, but feel empathy for so many others. It's not like, "as long as we are healthy", because that's not a good attitude in my opinion. Even the strongest and the young ones are vulnerable.

    FTR, I've been watching some Raptors / Blue Jays rewinds. The 2 World Series and of course, last year's basketball. If you watch closely or remember distinctly, The Raptors had a number of close calls before winning the crown. Kawhi's "The Shot" shot against Phily. The 2nd OT win against The Bucks, which (with a loss) would have put them down 3 and 0.

    Not sure there are enough of these games to watch until sports returns. Not a priority. I am actually a bit shocked how quickly we sports addicts have changed gears, other than The NFL. Not an option, but not important.

  13. #463
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    Quote Originally Posted by johntbronco View Post
    Here is a good graph.
    In my eyes it shows good optimisim here.
    Your opinion might be different than miine.

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...phic-datapack/
    Thx for this pal! Interesting data.

  14. #464
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    Quote Originally Posted by EddieMac View Post
    Disagree all you like... it’s my observation based on your post in response to Butlers comments on your posts... we all can agree to disagree with each other’s responses. That doesn’t make any of them wrong.

    To conclude with positives:

    Yes, I agree that those who disagree might all be right.

    And as posted previously, I am good with Butler's response.

    Moving forward.

  15. #465
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    Boy, each day we learn more and more about the virus, and so much of it is useful. This is a sprint not a marathon, when it comes to acquiring knowledge.

    Here's a good one so far. Apparently there is no current evidence that mosquitoes can spread the virus. If proven correct long term, this is a big deal, given that summer is soon to be upon most of us, and mosquito spread would seriously alter the little outdoor time we might have.


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