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Thread: Corona virus

  1. #931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    I agree with taking a cautious approach on the front end. We’re beginning to get data that can inform us on taking a more targeted approach.

    Wilfred Reilly completed a detailed analysis comparing states with stringent lock downs vs more moderate social distancing. Adjusting for demographics, age and density of population there was no statistical difference in cases and deaths.
    Consider me a skeptic on that. I will concede that I think we can get away with moderate social distancing as opposed to a complete shut-down of everything, but I don't think it's at all feasible to begin opening up bars, brining back concerts and jamming fans back into sporting events. Not that that's necessarily your point-of-view, but there seems to be a significant push for going back to business as usual. It also gets difficult when you start thinking about packing people into subways, buses and trains. I certainly agree the cautious approach made sense to start and we should use the information we have to guide the way to making informed decisions going forward, but I think that information has told us that while there were less deaths than predicted, the contagiousness of the virus will make it a continual threat to everyone until there's a vaccine. We do need to open back up, but it needs to be slowly, carefully and only for businesses and places where social distancing is actually possible.


    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    The draconian lock downs are literally destroying hospitals and health systems in areas with relatively few cases (revenue slashed due to blocking “non-essential” procedures). Unemployment is at the highest level since the Great Depression and we’re not even close to seeing the damage.

    It was easy for public officials to shut things down. Now they need to step up and begin the process of opening their states/cities.
    Listen - I don't love keeping the country shut, and I agree we need to start opening things, but the flip side to all this is that the hospitals could just as easily have been overrun with sick Covid-19 patients. Yes, the big cities have been hit the hardest, but a smaller town that winds up with a quick spread of the virus would be overwhelmed far quicker if they weren't being careful. The worst thing we can do is ignore what this lockdown has potentially prevented. And no, we can't be sure either way, but I would rather be a bit unsure 10 times out of 10 than have the worst predictions come true because we weren't careful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    While we should be extremely sensitive to the pain and suffering of those directly affected by the virus, we have to be cognizant of the economic destruction to people across the country. Long after the virus is gone we’re going to see the consequences of shutting down the country. Suicide and drug addiction will spike with high unemployment. We’ll likely see more domestic abuse as families struggle to survive.

    We know a high percentage of deaths occur from long term care facilities, elderly and those with underlying medical conditions. That should inform us to direct resources to those people - testing, disinfecting those facilities and restricting exposure to other people.

    It’s time to get serious about balancing the war on the virus and getting the country back to work. We can’t stay in our homes forever, with the exception of people like celebrities who can afford to. Enough lecturing by people who don’t have to worry about how to provide for their family.
    The problem is, as much as people want there to be (and act certain that there are) easy answers to get out of this, there just isn't. My biggest concern as this is ongoing is the mental health ramifications of a) people losing their jobs b) the loneliness of staying home and seeing few, if any, people each day and c) the general despair this situation has put us all in. The economic impact is indisputable. Yes, we know where a high percentage of the deaths occur, but it seems we're still learning more and more about this virus every day. The latest I heard today includes severe strokes for those in their 30s and 40s and the possibility that once you get it, you can still get it yet again.

    People need money for the most basic and essential needs like feeding their family and paying a mortgage. Everyone is frustrated with the status quo. And many, many people are eager to open back up and willing to risk it getting much worse because it's a chance their comfortable taking. My biggest issue is that the flip side to that, those same people who need the jobs to feed their family - if they then get sick, that could put their families in a far worse situation. And we don't know if that would or would not happen, which is why it's tempting to say let's just open it up. I'm optimistic the summer will help slowdown the spread and we can get back to something that comes close to normal, but it seems almost inevitable that it'll return with a fury in the fall/winter.

    I just don't think there are easy answers here, and honestly, for those worried about the economy, if we open up and things get significantly worse, the second round of lockdowns will be much, much worse than this has been. Companies that were furloughing employees will wind up having to lay them off. Companies that were hanging on with the federal loans will need to close down for good. I'm totally sick of being home all day every day for 6+ weeks, but the absolute last thing I want is for us to open up too soon, because that would actually have a catastrophic impact on the economy.
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  2. #932
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    Quote Originally Posted by RunYouOver View Post
    Consider me a skeptic on that. I will concede that I think we can get away with moderate social distancing as opposed to a complete shut-down of everything, but I don't think it's at all feasible to begin opening up bars, brining back concerts and jamming fans back into sporting events. Not that that's necessarily your point-of-view, but there seems to be a significant push for going back to business as usual. It also gets difficult when you start thinking about packing people into subways, buses and trains. I certainly agree the cautious approach made sense to start and we should use the information we have to guide the way to making informed decisions going forward, but I think that information has told us that while there were less deaths than predicted, the contagiousness of the virus will make it a continual threat to everyone until there's a vaccine. We do need to open back up, but it needs to be slowly, carefully and only for businesses and places where social distancing is actually possible.




    Listen - I don't love keeping the country shut, and I agree we need to start opening things, but the flip side to all this is that the hospitals could just as easily have been overrun with sick Covid-19 patients. Yes, the big cities have been hit the hardest, but a smaller town that winds up with a quick spread of the virus would be overwhelmed far quicker if they weren't being careful. The worst thing we can do is ignore what this lockdown has potentially prevented. And no, we can't be sure either way, but I would rather be a bit unsure 10 times out of 10 than have the worst predictions come true because we weren't careful.

    The problem is, as much as people want there to be (and act certain that there are) easy answers to get out of this, there just isn't. My biggest concern as this is ongoing is the mental health ramifications of a) people losing their jobs b) the loneliness of staying home and seeing few, if any, people each day and c) the general despair this situation has put us all in. The economic impact is indisputable. Yes, we know where a high percentage of the deaths occur, but it seems we're still learning more and more about this virus every day. The latest I heard today includes severe strokes for those in their 30s and 40s and the possibility that once you get it, you can still get it yet again.

    People need money for the most basic and essential needs like feeding their family and paying a mortgage. Everyone is frustrated with the status quo. And many, many people are eager to open back up and willing to risk it getting much worse because it's a chance their comfortable taking. My biggest issue is that the flip side to that, those same people who need the jobs to feed their family - if they then get sick, that could put their families in a far worse situation. And we don't know if that would or would not happen, which is why it's tempting to say let's just open it up. I'm optimistic the summer will help slowdown the spread and we can get back to something that comes close to normal, but it seems almost inevitable that it'll return with a fury in the fall/winter.

    I just don't think there are easy answers here, and honestly, for those worried about the economy, if we open up and things get significantly worse, the second round of lockdowns will be much, much worse than this has been. Companies that were furloughing employees will wind up having to lay them off. Companies that were hanging on with the federal loans will need to close down for good. I'm totally sick of being home all day every day for 6+ weeks, but the absolute last thing I want is for us to open up too soon, because that would actually have a catastrophic impact on the economy.
    We have phased guidelines to open, three phases with specific criteria. Nearly everyone said we need to listen to the science and the experts. The phases are based on the input of the medical team and seem conservative. I’m not saying this to inject politics, just the fact that we have guidelines designed to balance the risks. It’s hypocritical to say use the science and listen to the experts to close down, then ignore those same experts when it comes to opening (not calling out anyone here).

    There will always be risk. If we wanted to prevent more deaths from opioid overdoses we would stop the production of pharmaceutical opioids and inspect every container, car, truck and piece of luggage coming into the country. But that wouldn’t be realistic and would deny people who legitimately need help managing pain. We would stop giving 16 year olds licenses to drive cars.

    We have a flu vaccine and we lose ~30 to 60 thousand people a year. Even when we have a vaccine for Coronavirus there will be people who choose not to vaccinate. Waiting for a vaccine is not a viable approach. The economic devastation would be beyond imagination waiting that long.

    Not having easy answers is not an excuse to be paralyzed (not pointing to anyone here). Continuing to remain closed will be catastrophic. In fact, negative futures on the May oil contracts is an indicator we’ve already done catastrophic damage. That was the first time in history that’s happened if I’m correct.

    I would say 30 million unemployed people is catastrophic. If you’ve lost your business or job it’s catastrophic on that level right now - not in the future.

    Being paralyzed with no willingness to move forward is a disastrous mindset (not saying that’s your view).

    Locally we have grocery store workers planning walkouts. People working and keeping everyone else comfortable won’t fly forever. Anyone saying, “There can be no risk, we must stay at home as long as necessary”. Well, what about the people keeping things going while everyone else stays home?

    In fact, one of the largest meat packing plants in the country shut down. It wasn’t just from people infected, it was from absenteeism. Wait until more grocery stores are empty and we’ll have the celebrities telling the rest of the country to get back to work. “Stay safe, stay at home...except for those who need to deliver my stuff from Amazon and keep the groceries coming”.

    We have family who own what was a successful business. They are planning on how to re-open and almost all of their employees said they won’t come back to work. Not because they fear the virus - they’re enjoying collecting unemployment plus an extra $600 per week. They’ve said they stay out as long as those benefits are extended.

    This thing will hit a tipping point. It already has in some places. Besides, I put more trust in most business owners to figure out how to serve their customers safely. There is a restaurateur in Florida already reconfiguring his restaurants to accommodate social distancing.

    We’ll get there. One way or another we’ll have to get back to work.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-25-2020 at 06:46 PM.

  3. #933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    We have phased guidelines to open, three phases with specific criteria. Nearly everyone said we need to listen to the science and the experts. The phases are based on the input of the medical team and seem conservative. I’m not saying this to inject politics, just the fact that we have guidelines designed to balance the risks. It’s hypocritical to say use the science and listen to the experts to close down, then ignore those same experts when it comes to opening (not calling out anyone here).

    There will always be risk. If we wanted to prevent more deaths from opioid overdoses we would stop the production of pharmaceutical opioids and inspect every container, car, truck and piece of luggage coming into the country. But that wouldn’t be realistic and would deny people who legitimately need help managing pain. We would stop giving 16 year olds licenses to drive cars.

    We have a flu vaccine and we lose ~30 to 60 thousand people a year. Even when we have a vaccine for Coronavirus there will be people who choose not to vaccinate. Waiting for a vaccine is not a viable approach. The economic devastation would be beyond imagination waiting that long.

    Not having easy answers is not an excuse to be paralyzed (not pointing to anyone here). Continuing to remain closed will be catastrophic. In fact, negative futures on the May oil contracts is an indicator we’ve already done catastrophic damage. That was the first time in history that’s happened if I’m correct.

    I would say 30 million unemployed people is catastrophic. If you’ve lost your business or job it’s catastrophic on that level right now - not in the future.

    Being paralyzed with no willingness to move forward is a disastrous mindset (not saying that’s your view).

    Locally we have grocery store workers planning walkouts. People working and keeping everyone else comfortable won’t fly forever. Anyone saying, “There can be no risk, we must stay at home as long as necessary”. Well, what about the people keeping things going while everyone else stays home?

    In fact, one of the largest meat packing plants in the country shut down. It wasn’t just from people infected, it was from absenteeism. Wait until more grocery stores are empty and we’ll have the celebrities telling the rest of the country to get back to work. “Stay safe, stay at home...except for those who need to deliver my stuff from Amazon and keep the groceries coming”.

    We have family who own what was a successful business. They are planning on how to re-open and almost all of their employees said they won’t come back to work. Not because they fear the virus - they’re enjoying collecting unemployment plus an extra $600 per week. They’ve said they stay out as long as those benefits are extended.

    This thing will hit a tipping point. It already has in some places. Besides, I put more trust in most business owners to figure out how to serve their customers safely. There is a restaurateur in Florida already reconfiguring his restaurants to accommodate social distancing.

    We’ll get there. One way or another we’ll have to get back to work.
    Don't really think there's a single point I wholeheartedly disagree with in there. My point on "catastrophic" is more that rushing back with a devastating second wave will ultimately be far worse than what this is. Don't think we hit the pause button on life forever, just feel we need to be very cautious in our reopening of the country and anyone saying "enough is enough" is missing the point. We need to be smart, practical and careful and keep politics far, far away from this.

    People do their best to prove otherwise on a public scale, but the collective "we" are smart, we'll figure something out. That, I'm confident in.
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  4. #934
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    Quote Originally Posted by RunYouOver View Post
    Don't really think there's a single point I wholeheartedly disagree with in there. My point on "catastrophic" is more that rushing back with a devastating second wave will ultimately be far worse than what this is. Don't think we hit the pause button on life forever, just feel we need to be very cautious in our reopening of the country and anyone saying "enough is enough" is missing the point. We need to be smart, practical and careful and keep politics far, far away from this.

    People do their best to prove otherwise on a public scale, but the collective "we" are smart, we'll figure something out. That, I'm confident in.
    I agree. It’s not an “either - or”. Have to figure it out keeping an open mind. We have a lot of creative people and I believe a positive spirit to overcome the obstacles will prevail.

  5. #935
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    As for the thought of people not attending games or concerts at arenas. We’re not close to the level of deaths we were told to expect even with social distancing measures. It’s fair to say social distancing helped bend the curve. You don’t need to be a scientist to understand the common sense of staying farther apart and washing your hands more often.

    However particularly in a place like Los Angeles shouldn’t we have at least seen a giant leap in pre-quarantine infection rates? Until early March Californians were still going to Lakers games, concerts, hockey games and Disneyland. Millions of people were still gathering in close quarters. If the threat of COVID were really that pronounced shouldn’t we be seeing a large swath of the population infected in Southern California?

    848 deaths related to Coronavirus in Los Angeles, a population of four million. That’s not to minimize any death.

    The Lakers played a home game on March 10th. With so many people packed into the arena wouldn’t we have expected more people to be sick? Disneyland didn’t close until March 14th. Wouldn’t more people be sick after being at a crowded theme park?

  6. #936
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    There's too much propaganda out there. I truly hope each and every one of you carefully consider what you hear on corporate media outlets. Even if you historically 'trust' certain ones, just think for your self.

    Think about it.
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  7. #937
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    Quote Originally Posted by dizzolve View Post
    There's too much propaganda out there. I truly hope each and every one of you carefully consider what you hear on corporate media outlets. Even if you historically 'trust' certain ones, just think for your self.

    Think about it.
    Are you referencing anything specific posted in this thread? Can you counter anything posted with a fact based case?

  8. #938
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    Quote Originally Posted by dizzolve View Post
    There's too much propaganda out there. I truly hope each and every one of you carefully consider what you hear on corporate media outlets. Even if you historically 'trust' certain ones, just think for your self.

    Think about it.
    To my point, that's why I'll keep any and all politics out of it (aside from this board being P&R free). I'll go by what I've heard firsthand, the friends who have been sick, the family members of friends who have died, etc. Everyone will acknowledge it's tragic that people are dying and that it's a bad virus, but it usually takes seeing it first hand to actually put it in perspective. I'm fortunate that none of my family or friends have died from it, but I have friends who are not as lucky. Can't confuse "it hasn't happened to me" with "it won't happen to me."
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  9. #939
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNTHuCOjAy8

    Interesting take from some ER physicians.

  10. #940
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    Are you referencing anything specific posted in this thread? Can you counter anything posted with a fact based case?
    There's nothing I'd love to do more. In fact this country needs that kind of discussion among it's citizens. But this isn't the place for it because these issues are too closely tied to politics and the rules around here are long established.

    I wasn't directing my comments toward any one user. I just hate to see people regurgitate what they see on the big corporate media channels. Because more times than not, it doesn't serve your self but serves other interests. Which baffles me why people just go along with it.

    And it's shame we can't talk about it here because as far as forums go, this is the one I'd want to explore it in
    Last edited by dizzolve; 04-25-2020 at 10:14 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 58Miller View Post
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNTHuCOjAy8

    Interesting take from some ER physicians.
    The full interview is an hour long and very interesting. The shortened narrative here suggests there calling Fauci an idiot, but thats not what they did. To understand this snippet in context you need to watch more of the video.
    They suggested the original response was probably accurate because we had no data, but now that we understand the actual mortality rate is closer to .03% and that herd immunity is being built it is the wrong decision to quarantine healthy people.
    I encourage everyone here to find the entire interview and watch it.

  12. #942
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    Great video to watch. In fact it does sister with the point I was trying to make in my previous post. The Doctors too, were trying to keep politics out of it. The 2 are intertwined
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  13. #943
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    The full interview is an hour long and very interesting. The shortened narrative here suggests there calling Fauci an idiot, but thats not what they did. To understand this snippet in context you need to watch more of the video.
    They suggested the original response was probably accurate because we had no data, but now that we understand the actual mortality rate is closer to .03% and that herd immunity is being built it is the wrong decision to quarantine healthy people.
    I encourage everyone here to find the entire interview and watch it.
    Where exactly do you get that figure? There have been 16,600 deaths in New York State, which has a population of 19.4 million. Even if we assumed that everyone in the state has been infected, it would mean a mortality rate of over 0.085%.

    Show your work next time. Partial credit will be given.

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  15. #945
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    Quote Originally Posted by dizzolve View Post
    There's nothing I'd love to do more. In fact this country needs that kind of discussion among it's citizens. But this isn't the place for it because these issues are too closely tied to politics and the rules around here are long established.

    I wasn't directing my comments toward any one user. I just hate to see people regurgitate what they see on the big corporate media channels. Because more times than not, it doesn't serve your self but serves other interests. Which baffles me why people just go along with it.

    And it's shame we can't talk about it here because as far as forums go, this is the one I'd want to explore it in
    I hate to see people make health decisions based on junk information from the bowels of the internet, but it’s part of the world we live in.

    More questions than answers remain about Covid-19. However, we’re getting data which can begin to better inform decisions.

    What’s truly disgusting is seeing some celebrities mocking people expressing frustration about the lock downs. It’s easy to maintain a hard line when you’re privileged with the means to shelter in place forever - with people delivering your food and tending to your needs.

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