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Thread: Corona virus

  1. #1051
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    I had not heard about that. Did they intentionally send more people to some of the nursing homes?
    From what Iíve read recovering patients were forced to return to the homes despite having the virus.

  2. #1052
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    The state of Pennsylvania: The statewide death toll from COVID-19 decreased from 1,622 to 1,394.

    I wonder what happen to 228 people?

  3. #1053
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    There's no question that as more data comes out and the science is better understood, we can continue to move towards opening everything back up. I think in a lot of places that are less densely populated, that reopening date should probably be within the next couple weeks. Unfortunately, there are still a lot of major cities that, while the cases and deaths have slowed down, it's still not at an acceptable rate to open back up. For that reason, I don't think there's one clear plan, it's going to need to vary by city, state and country.

    I know people who almost certainly had it, but their doctors advised them against getting tested because they didn't feel they were at high risk and wouldn't change their treatment beyond what they were already doing. That more than just implies that the true numbers of this are way, way higher and the death rate lower than what's publicized. None of that is "breaking" news or a surprise to anyone, but it is good news. If the true number of Americans who have been infected is closer to 10-20 million, we've done a great job of flattening the curve.

    Without a doubt it's a highly contagious disease, and I strongly believe that the decisions made for the last 6-7 weeks have saved potentially millions of lives, because the hospitals would have been overrun, and not because it's that deadly of a disease. That was the goal the whole time, flatten the curve, space this out as long as possible to minimize deaths and eventually get a vaccine in order. Not that anyone really is, but comparing this virus to the flu still, to be blunt, is flat out stupid. We've had the same number of deaths from this as the flu with the whole country shut down.

    And now, now that we've likely peaked, we can work on reopening the country while maintaining social distancing for another few months. We're not going to see concerts or fans in stadiums until the fall though, and I think that's just something we need to wrap our heads around. Not really sure how bars are going to operate either, which will be weird. But restaurants, stores, etc. - maybe capacity is cut for the next few months, but they should be on track to open soon, depending on the region. I miss going places and doing things, but not for a second do I think it was a mistake for the actions to be put in place that got us here.
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  4. #1054
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    Quote Originally Posted by 58Miller View Post
    The state of Pennsylvania: The statewide death toll from COVID-19 decreased from 1,622 to 1,394.

    I wonder what happen to 228 people?

    Magic!!
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  5. #1055
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    I think I see more of what you were getting at with the initial statement. I don’t think a decision has an element of greatness because it was hard to make, although I think I see what you’re saying there.
    I was really not trying to make any masterful comments about covid and decision-making, rather the complexity and difficulty of making hard decisions...life altering in this case. Glad I did not have to make them.

    If I may, this is EXACTLY what I was thinking. Take you into the mind of this old dude. Yikes, on second thought, you may not want to. Say you were the mayor of a nice little city. And you had a very complex, controversial initiative that had to be decided upon. It was key to your city and key to your job as the mayor and leader. And after months and months (maybe years) of research and communication and feedback and soul searching, and negotiating, and whatever was required....the day finally came, and you made your call. And 51% of your citizens approved / 49% disapproved. You may not feel very good about it, and you may actually feel unpopular, and yes, you may long wonder if it was the right decision, but you did it. In future years it will be best understood if you made the right call. And though it may not turn out to be the greatest decision, the fact is, 51% is better than 49%, at least from a citizen perspective. But hey, when it's that close, it doesn't even feel like a win.

    That's what I was thinking. Nothing about covid specifics. Just a friendly response, with my added old man philosophy.

    In that regard, maybe my Dad had an observational style, or maybe it was what profs or bosses or other mentors influenced me with, probably all of the above, but I do like to offer my observations. It's a style. if I am wrong often, I will have to reinvent my style.

    But listen. I don't think you and I are that far apart on most of this. I think at times one or both of us dig in a little. Just say me, I'm ok with that. Believe me, when I first heard about this ugly virus, way back, I started wondering about people not being able to fly, and then maybe worse, things might be closed, and then what? I could feel an economic disaster on the way and it worried me. Big time! Like everyone else, I hate recessions and heaven forbid, possible depression! I hate the spiral effect that requires incredible economic wisdom and know how to maneuver. And all the jobs lost, and the businesses that suffer. And yes, the mental health aspect of it all, and the deprivation of meaningful life, which I believe is sacred territory. And on a personal level, being concerned about retirement which means investments/pensions that could be lost. And I want my kids to have jobs and their loved ones.

    So though we sound different on this subject at times, I just wanted to approach it slower in places that do not seem safe enough, or may not have the proper measures to manage it accurately. That's just me. I actually agree with some of your views. For the most part, if an area or region or whatever can move ahead quicker, and with a solid degree of safety (meaning little chance for outbreaks, as an example) then I am for it. Just like I am keen on seeing local restrictions lifted within reason, given our stats are pretty good, as I understand.

    So maybe one day you and I can have a discussion, with more common ground. Maybe part of it is misinterpretation. Maybe other. Maybe because I did not quite assess this thing accurately. Believe me, I lean to the health side given how tragic it can be, and because of the unknowns, but I want nothing more than for economies to get moving.

    So to conclude...that's how my mind works. Not perfect. Not always on the same wavelength as others. But I am being truthful of what I meant.
    Last edited by CanDB; 04-28-2020 at 08:29 PM.

  6. #1056
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    Quote Originally Posted by 58Miller View Post
    Over 10,000 deaths in the country are from nursing homes in 23 states.
    I found this resource from the CDC. It seems to lag somewhat but it provides a very interesting context. By Feb we were already coming out of the flu season. Looking at Covid-19 next to pneumonia is staggering. Based on their (late) numbers, ages 65-80+ account for 79% of fatalities, if I am reading this right. Unreal.

  7. #1057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    I had not heard about that. Did they intentionally send more people to some of the nursing homes?
    Quote Originally Posted by 58Miller View Post
    From what I’ve read recovering patients were forced to return to the homes despite having the virus.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...ients-n1191811

    So sad

  8. #1058
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    Cool. I gave you another opinion from someone who lives where you do and actually does work in a hospital. At some point maybe you'll start to wonder why your province cancelled all "elective" surgeries in the province and changed all of the surgical wards to Covid wards, yet currently have a grand total of 0 people in hospital with Covid.

    Will the dozens of people who die from cancelled "elective" cancer surgeries be treated as Covid deaths?...
    I will take in your info. Thank you.

    FTR, and though I do not care to share too much info, I am on hold to see a specialist, and I am awaiting a root canal....ha ha, I can handle the pain with the tooth, as I am in no rush! But I am ok with this, given it's what we are doing here. I want to do my "little" part in case those in need of healthcare relative to this virus need proper attention, and until it is deemed safe to make close contact with medical staff. And now I get a sense we will be moving things again very soon. Some of it may be over caution, I don't know. I'll ask everyone I know in healthcare. But so far it has been fine by me and my circle.

    That's just my personal view. Of course I want to be attended to.
    Last edited by CanDB; 04-28-2020 at 09:36 PM.

  9. #1059
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rastic View Post
    I found this resource from the CDC. It seems to lag somewhat but it provides a very interesting context. By Feb we were already coming out of the flu season. Looking at Covid-19 next to pneumonia is staggering. Based on their (late) numbers, ages 65-80+ account for 79% of fatalities, if I am reading this right. Unreal.
    Wow! Thatís crazy. I had no idea. Thank you for sharing.

    Iíve been reading a lot about death rates.
    480,000 die every year in the US from smoking, 40,000 of those are from second hand smoke.

  10. #1060
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rastic View Post
    I donít see any science in that decision. Send a person with a highly contagious virus into a facility full of high risk people.
    Very sad....

  11. #1061
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    Quote Originally Posted by RunYouOver View Post
    There's no question that as more data comes out and the science is better understood, we can continue to move towards opening everything back up. I think in a lot of places that are less densely populated, that reopening date should probably be within the next couple weeks. Unfortunately, there are still a lot of major cities that, while the cases and deaths have slowed down, it's still not at an acceptable rate to open back up. For that reason, I don't think there's one clear plan, it's going to need to vary by city, state and country.

    I know people who almost certainly had it, but their doctors advised them against getting tested because they didn't feel they were at high risk and wouldn't change their treatment beyond what they were already doing. That more than just implies that the true numbers of this are way, way higher and the death rate lower than what's publicized. None of that is "breaking" news or a surprise to anyone, but it is good news. If the true number of Americans who have been infected is closer to 10-20 million, we've done a great job of flattening the curve.

    Without a doubt it's a highly contagious disease, and I strongly believe that the decisions made for the last 6-7 weeks have saved potentially millions of lives, because the hospitals would have been overrun, and not because it's that deadly of a disease. That was the goal the whole time, flatten the curve, space this out as long as possible to minimize deaths and eventually get a vaccine in order. Not that anyone really is, but comparing this virus to the flu still, to be blunt, is flat out stupid. We've had the same number of deaths from this as the flu with the whole country shut down.

    And now, now that we've likely peaked, we can work on reopening the country while maintaining social distancing for another few months. We're not going to see concerts or fans in stadiums until the fall though, and I think that's just something we need to wrap our heads around. Not really sure how bars are going to operate either, which will be weird. But restaurants, stores, etc. - maybe capacity is cut for the next few months, but they should be on track to open soon, depending on the region. I miss going places and doing things, but not for a second do I think it was a mistake for the actions to be put in place that got us here.
    The focus on flattening the curve may or may not turn out to be a great job. It appears to be a job well done because that narrative took hold and ruled the day.

    By putting the strict lock downs in place we may have blunted the potential to develop immunity. It takes between 50-70% of the population being infected to reach immunity. Thatís what vaccines do. There is no guarantee weíll have a vaccine and the virus isnít going away.

    We may have achieved a short term win by flattening the curve, but pay a price because we kept most of the country in house arrest (blunting herd immunity). Younger people can be infected with extremely low risk of complications. We should be getting kids back to school and young people back to work (build immunity).

    Unfortunately the lock down led to millions of jobs lost. Not a lot of places for people to go back to work now. Add to that the potential we blunted the process of building immunity. Some states are beginning to re-open which will hopefully help. Maybe we can build more immunity.

    We have not had the entire country shut down. Seven states decided not to shut down. The death rates havenít been worse in those states than those who locked down.

    Time will tell if we did the right thing. If we didnít build enough immunity there is the potential for this to be much worse in the fall/winter.

    We havenít developed an effective vaccine for SARS, so thereís no guarantee weíll have one for this virus.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-28-2020 at 09:05 PM.

  12. #1062
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rastic View Post
    Of all the things Iíve read and heard, thatís awful.

  13. #1063
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rastic View Post
    I found this resource from the CDC. It seems to lag somewhat but it provides a very interesting context. By Feb we were already coming out of the flu season. Looking at Covid-19 next to pneumonia is staggering. Based on their (late) numbers, ages 65-80+ account for 79% of fatalities, if I am reading this right. Unreal.
    Based on the numbers from the CDC 693,000 people have died in the country in the last 88 days.
    Thatís 7875 deaths a day on average during that time.
    Thatís is what daily death rates in the country was in 2019 and lower than 2017.

    Why is the death rate in the country not rising with over 58,000 additional deaths during that time?
    Does that mean 58,000 deaths from other categories is down?

  14. #1064
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    The focus on flattening the curve may or may not turn out to be a great job. It appears to be a job well done because that narrative took hold and ruled the day.

    By putting the strict lock downs in place we may have blunted the potential to develop immunity. It takes between 50-70% of the population being infected to reach immunity. Thatís what vaccines do. There is no guarantee weíll have a vaccine and the virus isnít going away.

    We may have achieved a short term win by flattening the curve, but pay a price because we kept most of the country in house arrest (blunting herd immunity). Younger people can be infected with extremely low risk of complications. We should be getting kids back to school and young people back to work (build immunity).

    Unfortunately the lock down led to millions of jobs lost. Not a lot of places for people to go back to work now. Add to that the potential we blunted the process of building immunity. Some states are beginning to re-open which will hopefully help. Maybe we can build more immunity.

    We have not had the entire country shut down. Seven states decided not to shut down. The death rates havenít been worse in those states than those who locked down.

    Time will tell if we did the right thing. If we didnít build enough immunity there is the potential for this to be much worse in the fall/winter.

    We havenít developed an effective vaccine for SARS, so thereís no guarantee weíll have one for this virus.
    We have a vaccine for the flu and we still had 34,000 deaths last year and 61,000 deaths in 2018.

    A Vaccine will help but itís not a cure.

  15. #1065
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    Quote Originally Posted by 58Miller View Post
    We have a vaccine for the flu and we still had 34,000 deaths last year and 61,000 deaths in 2018.

    A Vaccine will help but itís not a cure.
    Yes, and no guarantee we can develop one that proves effective and safe. SARS and MERS and their underlying pathogens are also coronaviruses. The FDA hasnít approved a SARS vaccine in the United States because none have been proven effective.

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