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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    I think it's all to do with an improvement in the trending in NY, combined with some slight positives in other places. Perhaps the market overly declined when the panic set in, and is possibly finding a bottom soon....which will likely consist of some more roller coaster days. Any good news seems to spark a nice rally. And that's good. I am just weary of the next couple of months, when economic data captures the essence of the recession or whatever we are in.

    But I will admit, some of the stock market data in the last few weeks is better than I would have guessed.
    Idaho has slowed as well.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    Idaho has slowed as well.
    That's good.

    I was going to add.....that every major market downturn has a recovery process that may be different. We get better at predicting the outcome, but a changing world means changing metrics. If you had asked me how long the '08 crash would take to reasonably recover, I would have said much longer than it did. Conversely, things can go the other way. But economists and financial gurus, using computer models and know how, are pretty good at it. BUT the one thing that few of us can accurately predict is the impact of the human factor, in terms of panic or alternatively, jumping on a weak wave.

    That's why The Buffets of the world play it very well...they keep buying bargains, and they do not get caught up in emotion, buy or sell.

    Last word...I am hoping that fear of the unknown was a bigger factor in this pandemic situation than was necessary. The markets hate the unknown. Lets be real, there was a lot of unknown a few month ago. And unlike most events in our lives, they are often limited to certain areas only...like earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, even smaller wars. But this is in the world wide category, and when that happens, the fear and unknown is overwhelming.....including such a high % of activities (ie. employment) that need to be curtailed. That looks extremely daunting in the markets. It can not be properly assessed, given the end date is just a blur.

    Stay positive...I am not overconfident, but I see some light.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    That's good.

    I was going to add.....that every major market downturn has a recovery process that may be different. We get better at predicting the outcome, but a changing world means changing metrics. If you had asked me how long the '08 crash would take to reasonably recover, I would have said much longer than it did. Conversely, things can go the other way. But economists and financial gurus, using computer models and know how, are pretty good at it. BUT the one thing that few of us can accurately predict is the impact of the human factor, in terms of panic or alternatively, jumping on a weak wave.

    That's why The Buffets of the world play it very well...they keep buying bargains, and they do not get caught up in emotion, buy or sell.

    Last word...I am hoping that fear of the unknown was a bigger factor in this pandemic situation than was necessary. The markets hate the unknown. Lets be real, there was a lot of unknown a few month ago. And unlike most events in our lives, they are often limited to certain areas only...like earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, even smaller wars. But this is in the world wide category, and when that happens, the fear and unknown is overwhelming.....including such a high % of activities (ie. employment) that need to be curtailed. That looks extremely daunting in the markets. It can not be properly assessed, given the end date is just a blur.

    Stay positive...I am not overconfident, but I see some light.
    I need the global economy to recover. I hope it has bottomed out, because that would mean what, like an 15-20 month recovery? I read that it took 22 months after Black Monday, and that was worse. Maybe one of you guys can fill me in on that. I knew this was going to happen. I sold off over half of my materials in January, February, and early March. Got my last load out less than a week before the market went into lockdown.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    I need the global economy to recover. I hope it has bottomed out, because that would mean what, like an 15-20 month recovery? I read that it took 22 months after Black Monday, and that was worse. Maybe one of you guys can fill me in on that. I knew this was going to happen. I sold off over half of my materials in January, February, and early March. Got my last load out less than a week before the market went into lockdown.
    I think most of us need a global recovery, because trade and commerce are so interwoven. None of us are capable of self sufficiency, and even if so, some of it would be at a lower standard.

    I wish I could help you with a recovery time. This is partly why we need to pull for one another across the globe. If the major suppliers do not fare well, it will impact us. The reason international trade is so powerful is that it typically provides the better cost/product & service...whereas us individual countries do not have the supply or expertise for everything. You may have supply, or you may have expertise, but you will not have the best of both, at the best price. One can not include subsidies into the mix without declining the true value of their commerce. Of course some countries are better equipped overall. The US is one of them.

    But you probably know this and more.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spice 1 View Post
    I need the global economy to recover. I hope it has bottomed out, because that would mean what, like an 15-20 month recovery? I read that it took 22 months after Black Monday, and that was worse. Maybe one of you guys can fill me in on that. I knew this was going to happen. I sold off over half of my materials in January, February, and early March. Got my last load out less than a week before the market went into lockdown.
    I donít think it would be that long because the crash at that time was due to a problem within the market. That market needed a correction. The market we were recently in was the strongest in decades. If we can start opening the country back up gradually starting in 3-4 weeks we can be optimistic about a 12 month recovery, depending on how the elections go.
    Last edited by Al Wilson 4 Mayor; 04-07-2020 at 12:07 PM.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    I think most of us need a global recovery, because trade and commerce are so interwoven. None of us are capable of self sufficiency, and even if so, some of it would be at a lower standard.

    I wish I could help you with a recovery time. This is partly why we need to pull for one another across the globe. If the major suppliers do not fare well, it will impact us. The reason international trade is so powerful is that it typically provides the better cost/product & service...whereas us individual countries do not have the supply or expertise for everything. You may have supply, or you may have expertise, but you will not have the best of both, at the best price. One can not include subsidies into the mix without declining the true value of their commerce. Of course some countries are better equipped overall. The US is one of them.

    But you probably know this and more.
    Chinese industry, in particular. It typically is, but developments over the last year have had huge impact on what I'm doing. Famine, feast, famine. First, American Corporations just stopped making stuff, or jacked their prices up, because their cheap trade materials went away. Then, China's emissions standards, emissions standards in general, kicked into high gear. Then, Coronavirus. It's been a year of extreme highs and lows.

    Quote Originally Posted by Al Wilson 4 Mayor View Post
    I donít think it would be that long because the crash at that time was due to a problem within the market. That market needed a correction. The market we were recently in was the strongest in decades. If we can start opening the country back up gradually starting in 3-4 weeks we can be optimistic about a 12 month recovery, depending on how the elections go.
    Hope you're right. I'm moving forward expecting it to once everything gentles down. Now is a good time to buy.

  7. #52
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    There is so much information on investing itís hard to simplify. Thereís a huge difference between trading and investing.

    1. ďPay yourself firstĒ. When it comes to your money everyone else has their hand out. They all want your money - mortgage/rent, utilities, taxes, car payment, restaurants, etc. Paying yourself first means having money automatically taken out of your pay/checking. When you pay yourself first, everything else works out. A budget doesnít need to be as stringent because youíve put money aside first.

    2. Set a destination. What are your goals and when do you want to achieve them? We donít go on vacation without planning a destination. Investing isnít any different.

    3. Start investing early. Enroll in your employerís 401k plan with your first job. When an employer matches part of your pay with $.50 or $1.00 on the dollar, itís a no brainer. Pre-tax investing reduces your tax burden.

    3. Time, compounding interest and dividends are the way to build wealth. Einstein considered compounding interest the most powerful force in the world. Start saving early.

    3. ďDollar Cost AverageĒ. Put a set amount into savings and investments every month or bi-weekly. This approach allows you to spread the risk, buying on the ups and downs. It takes the emotion out of investing. I took this approach with our childrenís college savings plans. $200 a month into a diversified portfolio from the day they were born. When our oldest son was a junior in high school, I changed the asset allocation to a conservative 20%/80% stocks/fixed income. We easily had enough to pay for college with this method.

    4. Know your risk tolerance. Be honest with yourself. Itís okay to have a more conservative asset allocation if volatility keeps you up at night. Over a career we donít need spectacular annual returns. If you can average 8-9% annually over 30 years youíll be set for retirement.

    5. Precious metals can have a role in a diversified portfolio. Gold crushed the S&P 500 since the start of the century. 5%, no more than 10% in a portfolio.

    6. Pay for a qualified financial planner. Do you do brain surgery yourself, or do you go to a brain surgeon? Iím not talking about someone trying to sell you the latest financial product, rather a qualified CPA/Certified Financial Planner. If you canít handle the emotions of investing, pay someone to help you.

    7. When you get a pay raise, reward yourself and bump up your savings. For example, if you get a 4% raise, keep 3% and increase your 401k contribution by 1%.

    8. When giving money to a charity figure out the one you believe in and make a regular contribution. The charity can better plan when they can plan on what you give. Build charitable giving into your budget.

    9. Build a war chest with cash for downturns. When thereís blood in the street, put the cash to work.

    10. Use low cost index funds. The lower the cost the higher the return. The best fund managers rarely beat broad indexes over the long haul.

    Keep it simple. Over time you canít go wrong with a 50/50 allocation with a total stock market fund/total bond income fund.

    Weíre on track to retire and just waiting for the day I donít have to pay a 10% penalty to the IRS for distributions. Thatís the day I plan to retire.

    As long as your time horizon is 5-10 years or a more donít worry about todayís volatility. Avoid watching the financial networks on TV or looking at markets on your phone everyday. Avoid looking at your investment accounts every day. Sit down with your financial planner annually, assess your situation and adjust as needed. Looking at the stock market everyday doesnít build wealth.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-19-2020 at 03:55 PM.

  8. #53
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    For those looking to trade this market tread carefully. I canít remember the last time oil futures traded near -$40 per barrel. Itís the opposite of a short squeeze which is quite interesting. Not enough room to store oil means weíre near shutting down drilling. If we thought job losses were bad so far, wait until the energy sector shuts down.


  9. #54
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    If Iím interpreting negative oil futures, the owner of the futures contract would have to pay to not have the oil delivered. Not sure if thatís correct but thatís my understanding.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    For those looking to trade this market tread carefully. I can’t remember the last time oil futures traded near -$40 per barrel. It’s the opposite of a short squeeze which is quite interesting. Not enough room to store oil means we’re near shutting down drilling. If we thought job losses were bad so far, wait until the energy sector shuts down.

    For those of us still on the Junior Varsity, I always appreciate you folks that throw warnings to consider.

    Question though- do some of the "big boys" in the gas/oil just become obvious long term holds in this historic time?

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by atwaterandstir View Post
    For those of us still on the Junior Varsity, I always appreciate you folks that throw warnings to consider.

    Question though- do some of the "big boys" in the gas/oil just become obvious long term holds in this historic time?
    Money will always be made. Iíve never traded oil futures nor have I had an oil ETF. Big Investors with enough cash before the downturn will mop up shares of energy companies. The oil industry couldnít take a 5% reduction in demand, let alone a 30% drop. Planes arenít flying and people arenít driving. OPEC agreed to reduce production but not nearly enough. People who can store oil are making money but theyíll run out of storage soon. Unleaded has is as low as $.89 in Wisconsin. There is just too much oil and little demand. Oil wonít rebound anytime soon.

    Edit: Iím looking at whatís happened to oil as one indicator of how much damage the pandemic caused to the economy. Unless Iím mistaken, the negative May contracts represented the worst oil price fall in history.
    Last edited by Fantaztic7; 04-21-2020 at 06:23 PM.

  12. #57
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    Anyone buying pharmaceuticals of late? Lots of potential success stories, but as is the case of this industry's products, a high % of failure.

  13. #58
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    Economy suffers titanic 32.9% plunge in 2nd quarter, GDP shows, and points to drawn-out recovery

    Can't say I'm not surprised. Steepest recession since WW2. Ouch.

    I expect a br00tal few days in the market. If money printing can support the stock market and the economy presumably forever (well, according to Powell anyway), where is the GDP going to come from? Thin air?

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peerless View Post
    Economy suffers titanic 32.9% plunge in 2nd quarter, GDP shows, and points to drawn-out recovery

    Can't say I'm not surprised. Steepest recession since WW2. Ouch.

    I expect a br00tal few days in the market. If money printing can support the stock market and the economy presumably forever (well, according to Powell anyway), where is the GDP going to come from? Thin air?
    Brent, I am still surprised at how well the stock market is doing, given that the economy is taking a huge hit. I know, it's a prediction of the future, but we've all got a long way to go. Loads of businesses in trouble. Unemployment is high. World economics are not favorable for commerce.

    But hopefully things will progress as they should.

    BUT long term, I see problems with all the debt that many countries have taken on. There's no magic to solving that. It doesn't just go away, or hide until the next generations find solutions.....other than taxes and the like. You pay now or you pay later.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanDB View Post
    Brent, I am still surprised at how well the stock market is doing, given that the economy is taking a huge hit. I know, it's a prediction of the future, but we've all got a long way to go. Loads of businesses in trouble. Unemployment is high. World economics are not favorable for commerce.

    But hopefully things will progress as they should.

    BUT long term, I see problems with all the debt that many countries have taken on. There's no magic to solving that. It doesn't just go away, or hide until the next generations find solutions.....other than taxes and the like. You pay now or you pay later.
    I agree. After the 'correction' or 'dip' of early in the year, I think most people's portfolios have recovered nicely. Up until today!

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