What are chances of the season being canceled?

[samparnell]

Here is an interesting link: www.healthdata.org
Click on COVID-19 projections, pull down for individual states and scroll down to see national and state-by-state data on: hospital resources; deaths per day; and, total deaths.

There is the peak and the descent from the peak. Problem is the states are all peaking at different times. Data is based mostly on testing and that is very uneven as well, because they have dealt with it in their own ways without a great deal of national support especially early on. Mitigating measures are also uneven which may result in late peaking states spreading back to those that peaked earlier. The medical resources of each state are also different which affects their abilities to contain and treat the spread.

We shall see how accurate projections are going forward. Whether or not there is a seasonal effect on the presence and spread of the virus remains to be seen, wishful thinking notwithstanding. As far as I can tell, the US is experiencing the greatest outbreak of COVID-19, if shared data is accurate. Community/person-to person spread is the risk with large gatherings being the greatest.

As far as the football season is concerned, testing everyone with whom players and coaches come into contact seems a daunting, almost impossible task. There are and will be pressures from a number of different directions to initiate the steps to start the season. It seems at this point about 50/50 that will happen. If a return to the status quo ante occurs, don't be surprised if COVID is still a health risk with serious results possible due to its contagious nature.

A vaccine which addresses all mutated forms of the virus will be the ultimate solution provided that everyone on the planet receives it regardless of profit motives. It's a global health issue from which some will try to profit, but we shall see.

[CanDB]

I would not be surprised to see empty stadiums (or arenas) when sports first comes back in whatever form it comes back.

I envision a time, though I do not know when, that they will play again, without fans in the stands initially.....when the virus is under some real control, and when testing supplies are much more available. And the condition would be that all players/coaches/refs/camera folks/etc. would be tested before and after games. Again, that means ample supply, because if the needy can't get it, nor should pro sports.

At no point can one of these players test positive to play. Otherwise they could infect every other person involved. And you can not play, stop play, restart, etc. It would be too complex, and questionable.

[jazzbodog]

The properties that brought this virus all the way from Wuhan to the US, from zero cases to hundrrds of thousands confirmed, so quickly will not change. Until there is herd immunity, I expect the virus to re-emerge unless we develop means to prophylactically prevent its spread. I am afraid that with all of our efforts, it will simply appear again as soon as our guards drop. I don't foresee circumstances where tens of thousands gathering will happen for some time.

I agree with your statement regarding crowds. At this point in time and with what we DON'T KNOW, I don't think we can even call it a coin toss.
Way to many unknowns.

Right now the immediate path of the USA if not the world is like a river raft going down a raging uncharted river that is 10 times worse than the Colorado River at peak levels and the river we're going down has never been navigated before, we don't know the length of the river, there are no maps, no satellite images, we have no idea how much intense white water and massive boulders are ahead of us, the sun is beginning to set, a storm is brewing and we desperately and quickly need to find a sandy beach...any beach, to find shelter, get rest and rethink strategy... if there is any...and then mentally prepare as best we can to enter the daunting river with overwhelming consternation the next morning, and not knowing if or when we will reach calm waters and the bright warm sun is shining on our faces...a true miracle.

I believe our biggest and most realistic hope for a normal anything (NFL season?) is for a quality vaccine to be developed quickly, proven to be 100% effective and certainly safe. But then we will have to quickly manufacture well over 300 million doses and distribute and administer them quickly to the American public, which would basically be....a quick miracle.

NFL season...maybe.

[Fantaztic7]

2919 marked the lowest average attendance at NFL games in 15 years. 15 teams declined in attendance, led by the Jaguars, Raiders and the Bengals. Washington saw an increase in attendance of 7.3% and the Bills went up 6%. So, attendance overall was already down.

If the season starts on-time or is delayed, I wonder if the NFL will reduce ticket prices to entice fans back? There could be a “snap back” with fans eager to get back to games. Maybe there will be a further slide in attendance. It’s a great experience to attend a game but it’s become quite expensive.

September is quite a ways away and a lot can happen. I still think there are decent odds the season starts on schedule. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a delay.

[Butler By'Note]

2919 marked the lowest average attendance at NFL games in 15 years. 15 teams declined in attendance, led by the Jaguars, Raiders and the Bengals. Washington saw an increase in attendance of 7.3% and the Bills went up 6%. So, attendance overall was already down.

If the season starts on-time or is delayed, I wonder if the NFL will reduce ticket prices to entice fans back? There could be a “snap back” with fans eager to get back to games. Maybe there will be a further slide in attendance. It’s a great experience to attend a game but it’s become quite expensive.

September is quite a ways away and a lot can happen. I still think there are decent odds the season starts on schedule. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a delay.

While I've enjoyed the experience of the NFL games I've seen, I think the biggest hurdle the NFL will have in attendance (talking longterm, not just this year) is that the viewing experience at home has become so good. With HDTV the sports world really changed, in my opinion.

I think we're at a tipping point where ticket prices and overall experience costs will need to go down, because the experience watching at home is so much cheaper, and in some ways much better.

[Bronco51]

If they even have a season, I will give my tickets to friends or family who want to go. I am not willing to chance it unless there is a real dent in this thing. And I doubt it will be under manageable control anytime soon. I hope they don't rush it for the money.

[Fantaztic7]

While I've enjoyed the experience of the NFL games I've seen, I think the biggest hurdle the NFL will have in attendance (talking longterm, not just this year) is that the viewing experience at home has become so good. With HDTV the sports world really changed, in my opinion.

I think we're at a tipping point where ticket prices and overall experience costs will need to go down, because the experience watching at home is so much cheaper, and in some ways much better.

I think your point has a lot to do with declining attendance. TV ratings were up in 2019. For the price of one ticket I can have friends over (no pandemic) with a pretty good meal. Same thing with watching movies on-demand. Last weekend our family watched 1917 for $5.99, with candy and homemade popcorn for another $5.00. That’s less than one ticket at a movie theater. With a nice TV and sound system the quality is pretty good. Not to mention you get the movie for 48 hours.

[DenverBlood]

The reason the nfl said they expect the season to start on time is their biggest offseason event is less than 3 weeks away. They want fans still enticed so they can market and get ratings for the one live sports event we get in a 2-3 month window. The ratings will be high.

If they canned the season now (5 months early) they would kill the biggest ratings event going. Why would fans care to watch a bunch of player names they won’t see for nearly two years?

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

If they even have a season, I will give my tickets to friends or family who want to go. I am not willing to chance it unless there is a real dent in this thing. And I doubt it will be under manageable control anytime soon. I hope they don't rush it for the money.

Additionally they can still salvage some of their revenue with television viewing only.

[Hadez]

I think your point has a lot to do with declining attendance. TV ratings were up in 2019. For the price of one ticket I can have friends over (no pandemic) with a pretty good meal. Same thing with watching movies on-demand. Last weekend our family watched 1917 for $5.99, with candy and homemade popcorn for another $5.00. That’s less than one ticket at a movie theater. With a nice TV and sound system the quality is pretty good. Not to mention you get the movie for 48 hours.

agreed. I love a live game specially with Stubhub being so close to where I live. Can actually get decent game prices there all things considered with a trick I learned the first year in LA.

Still...everyone pretty much has an huge amazing TV now a days. Getting the games is not that hard..free even for a lot of people.

Hard to justify spending all that money going to a game. The attendance still doing good now but a new generation of people who prefer to do things at home is going to change things big time.

[Hadez]

Just saw this article which hit this topic hard.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/04/02/broncos-inform-season-ticket-holders-of-possibility-of-canceled-games-games-without-fans/

Broncos inform season-ticket holders of possibility of canceled games, games without fans
Posted by Mike Florio on April 2, 2020, 2:12 PM EDT

Officially, the NFL plans to conduct a full season in full stadiums. The Broncos agree with that approach, informing season-ticket holders that the team is “preparing for the season and fully anticipate playing an uninterrupted schedule.”

But the Broncos, in that same message, have broached the possibility that games won’t be played, or that they’ll be played without fans present.

“If a game is canceled and cannot be rescheduled or is played under conditions that prohibit fans from attention, Season Ticket Members will receive a refund or account credit of the season ticket purchase price for any impacted games,” the team explains, via Mike Klis of 9News.com.

Although the NFL, as mentioned above, plans for a full season, the better position may be that the league is planning for all possibilities, and that it will have a plan for all potential scenarios. Although much can change in the next five months, few would express genuine confidence that the sports world will return to normal by then.

Hopefully it will (for reasons that extend far beyond sports), but for now it seems more than prudent to plan for more than one path.

[jazzbodog]

While I've enjoyed the experience of the NFL games I've seen, I think the biggest hurdle the NFL will have in attendance (talking longterm, not just this year) is that the viewing experience at home has become so good. With HDTV the sports world really changed, in my opinion.

I think we're at a tipping point where ticket prices and overall experience costs will need to go down, because the experience watching at home is so much cheaper, and in some ways much better.

I agree. Is Pay Per View games (not just football) looking like it may be in the near future of watching sports events in the "safe" comfort in your home?

[Fantaztic7]

The properties that brought this virus all the way from Wuhan to the US, from zero cases to hundrrds of thousands confirmed, so quickly will not change. Until there is herd immunity, I expect the virus to re-emerge unless we develop means to prophylactically prevent its spread. I am afraid that with all of our efforts, it will simply appear again as soon as our guards drop. I don't foresee circumstances where tens of thousands gathering will happen for some time.

I meant to reply earlier to this comment. There is a possibility of a near term benefit of social distancing, at the expense of taking longer to build immunity with the masses. Ultimately, extreme social distancing can cause more deaths over the long term. We should be deploying a vaccine by January but that is a way off. Hopefully warm weather will slow the virus. It would be nice to have football after all of this.

[Fantaztic7]

agreed. I love a live game specially with Stubhub being so close to where I live. Can actually get decent game prices there all things considered with a trick I learned the first year in LA.

Still...everyone pretty much has an huge amazing TV now a days. Getting the games is not that hard..free even for a lot of people.

Hard to justify spending all that money going to a game. The attendance still doing good now but a new generation of people who prefer to do things at home is going to change things big time.

Agree. While this pandemic is temporarily preventing us from dining out, it’s much cheaper than attending a game. For the price of one good ticket, parking and one beer, I can pickup the tab at a local restaurant with food and drinks for my family and friends.

[Butler By'Note]

Agree. While this pandemic is temporarily preventing us from dining out, it’s much cheaper than attending a game. For the price of one good ticket, parking and one beer, I can pickup the tab at a local restaurant with food and drinks for my family and friends.

Not to mention the convenience factor. You don't have to fight traffic, you don't have to dedicate an hour before and after the game to get to and from. You can do whatever you need to do, or watch another game, until the game starts. Then once it does you can sit back and relax. During commercials you can flip to other games or check out stats etc. And if you need to step away for a second for something, you can pause it until you get back. And of course there's no lines waiting for anything.

I used to love going to Flames games, I probably went to close to 20 during the peak of my in-person viewing. This year I went to 2 and was happier watching the other games at home. I'll probably go to a game or two when they open the new building, especially once my son is old enough to go, but until then, viewing games at home is my favourite option.

Watching at home doesn't capture the true electric feel of the crowd, such as one of the hockey games I went to this year that was considered a game of the year candidate league wide. But that's really the only advantage a live game has to watching at home.