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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzbodog View Post
    Horrible to predict how to balance between protecting the "economy" versus preventing increasing the amount "death".

    Right now I'm leaning heavily for life without football verses life with assured and unnecessary deaths.

    Is sports really more important to help the economy or is it if people can't enjoy games we might as well be dead....really?

    Where do we draw the line between humanity and the game of the week?

    Today the risk to start resuming life as it was because people are too selfish go without sports is not worth having to say later, what the hell were we thinking!
    We’re not talking about resuming life as it was just to have football. On average 38,000 people are killed in automobiles every year. Shouldn’t we stop driving in the cause to prevent deaths? It seems selfish to drive anywhere, knowing someone can be killed.

    It is not sustainable to keep the country mostly shut down for an extended period of time. We’ll need to figure out a way to get going again. As for football it would be a good indicator things are getting back to normal if the season starts as scheduled.

    I’m in the camp the season will start on time, maybe a delay of 3-4 weeks if this drags on beyond May.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzbodog View Post
    Horrible to predict how to balance between protecting the "economy" versus preventing increasing the amount "death".

    Right now I'm leaning heavily for life without football verses life with assured and unnecessary deaths.

    Is sports really more important to help the economy or is it if people can't enjoy games we might as well be dead....really?

    Where do we draw the line between humanity and the game of the week?

    Today the risk to start resuming life as it was because people are too selfish go without sports is not worth having to say later, what the hell were we thinking!

    Not to be callous but 150,000 people die every single day. Many many more people will die from cancer this year than this virus. But we've seen cancer surgeries and treatments cancelled because of the virus. Right now we're choosing death (by cancer and other surgeries being cancelled) because of fear of this virus.

    This virus is bad, and people are going to die from it, but people died in the 1957-58 flu epidemic (2 million worldwide), people died in the 1968 Avian Flu pandemic (1 million), and life went on during both of them.

    At some point we need to realize that this is just another in the list of flus and viruses that will go around.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler By'Note View Post
    Not to be callous but 150,000 people die every single day. Many many more people will die from cancer this year than this virus. But we've seen cancer surgeries and treatments cancelled because of the virus. Right now we're choosing death (by cancer and other surgeries being cancelled) because of fear of this virus.

    This virus is bad, and people are going to die from it, but people died in the 1957-58 flu epidemic (2 million worldwide), people died in the 1968 Avian Flu pandemic (1 million), and life went on during both of them.

    At some point we need to realize that this is just another in the list of flus and viruses that will go around.
    Tragically we know someone with cancer and her treatment has been put on hold. Hopefully the delay won’t be detrimental to her outcome.

    We’ll need to modify a few things to go back to work but there is a way forward. There always is.

  4. #64
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    And then there is this. Obviously a small sample size but we know how statistics work.

    http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020...ine-developed/

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenverBlood View Post
    And then there is this. Obviously a small sample size but we know how statistics work.

    http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2020...ine-developed/
    How survey questions are worded impacts the results. One question was, “If the Policy of Social Distancing Continues into the Fall, Should NFL Start Up?”.

    This question could lead a respondent to think we’ll be in the same scenario as we are today. A lot can change as time goes by.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
    There will be a point whereby long term damage to the economy will occur. In the 2008-2009 financial crisis it took 10 months to lose 16 million jobs in the United States. We’ve lost more than 16 million jobs in three weeks - think about that.
    Long term economic damage is.....has.....already occurred. The longer it takes to get things moving forward again, the more that damage becomes....and the longer it will take to recover.

    It isnt irreparable damage though, so thats something.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by MH Stampede View Post
    Long term economic damage is.....has.....already occurred. The longer it takes to get things moving forward again, the more that damage becomes....and the longer it will take to recover.

    It isnt irreparable damage though, so thats something.
    Correct. People won’t put up with beyond the end of May. If public officials think they’re facing challenges now, see what happens trying to extend this beyond mid-June. The start of football season will be the least of anyone’s concern.

  8. #68
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    On the news here although no-one knows fo sure a lot of people suggest that the lockdown will extend into early May and then get lifted around the middle of May where schools/nurseries re-open and businesses, shops open up.

    Sport events are hoping to take place in June behind closed doors initially, and then into July if all is well fans can start to attend matches.

    Obviously no-one knows what will happen for sure but this is the sort of timetable a lot of the leading figures in education, trade, etc..... are telling us.

    As I have said before I think the States are about 2 weeks behind Europe so you guys might be in lockdown a couple of weeks more, although I know your president is keen to get things moving again as soon as possible.

  9. #69
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    Here's some food for thought. With vaccines and several preventative treatments for the flu we still have a 50 to 60k in deaths each year.

    Covid models which had been shrinking now has the death numbers at some 60k to 70k *from 250k+ prior* total and still trending down.

    New Treatments have been shown to be effective, we are seeing s variety of different test being rolled out that by mid july we will have surpluses in tests. The number of ventilators, beds etc will continue to grow. We will see if they can produce vaccines right now we have them saying any where from months to 18.

    As for additional waves dont look to 1918 flu where we had horrid levels of medical care compared to today.

    The country can not survive a shut down beyond May. From forecasting we should see a reopening in May.

    Basketball and hockey seasons are dead.
    Baseball is still 50 50 for a half season.
    Football should have almost a full season...

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by proudbroncsfan View Post
    Here's some food for thought. With vaccines and several preventative treatments for the flu we still have a 50 to 60k in deaths each year.

    Covid models which had been shrinking now has the death numbers at some 60k to 70k *from 250k+ prior* total and still trending down.

    New Treatments have been shown to be effective, we are seeing s variety of different test being rolled out that by mid july we will have surpluses in tests. The number of ventilators, beds etc will continue to grow. We will see if they can produce vaccines right now we have them saying any where from months to 18.

    As for additional waves dont look to 1918 flu where we had horrid levels of medical care compared to today.

    The country can not survive a shut down beyond May. From forecasting we should see a reopening in May.

    Basketball and hockey seasons are dead.
    Baseball is still 50 50 for a half season.
    Football should have almost a full season...
    Your comments to put it lightly are missing quite a bit. One is that the only reason why the death toll is so low is because we have implemented social distancing and forced a shut down. The sad truth here is that in 2020 we will see businesses fail as a result of COVID19. We will also see a major increase in deaths if we do not keep these measure in place. A major kicker here is that a vaccine and treatments are as of yet unproven and given the circumstances are being rushed (this is by nearly any metrics).

    As a country both USA and Canada appear to have leaders who are sending mixed messaging. There is also a tremendous opportunity here for the US and Canada. We have never had a Pandemic of this scale and spread this rapidly with such advanced technology at our collective disposal. Before we even think of return to work we first need to find out a few things:

    1. Antibody test for all- this will help determine a few things. One how pervasive was this pandemic really. Also it should help medical professionals either prove or disprove that if you've been infected that you cannot be again.

    2. Shedding of the virus: we still do not have proper data on the stages of COVID19. From when to when can a person get infected and then pass it along to others. If I have fought off the virus and am showing no symptoms am I more or less of a risk to others?


    Perhaps the biggest issue is people. ImO - the country will need to force employers to not allow people back to work unless specific conditions are met. I think that is the only way we can start getting back to a new normal.

    I am looking forward to this upcoming season. I hope there is one. GO BRONCOS!

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich_C View Post
    Your comments to put it lightly are missing quite a bit. One is that the only reason why the death toll is so low is because we have implemented social distancing and forced a shut down.
    This is slightly dubious. The models used that projected various numbers of deaths had social distancing figured in, and we're at the point where the actual numbers are thankfully much less than predicted.

    As she cited Murray’s work, Birx noted that there’s a vast gulf between the best-case and worst-case scenarios. “It’s anywhere in the model between 80,000 and 160,000 [Americans] – maybe even potentially 200,000 people – succumbing to this,” she said. “That’s with mitigation. In that model, they make the full assumption that we continue doing exactly what we're doing, but even better, in every metro area.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...0fa101a75580d/
    A possible explanation is the models underestimated the impact social distancing and other measures would have. But their numbers were wildly off and we're used to justify severe measures. It's reasonable to ask why and whether these lock downs are still necessary or if we can begin to slowly open things back up.

    Regarding the season, the Stillman School of Business at Seaton Hall released a poll that's been going around the last few days. About 72% of sports fans would not attend games without a CV19 vaccine. It is hard to imagine stadiums at or below 30% capacity. I don't know the numbers but could they afford to even staff the place regularly with that low of an attendance?

  12. #72
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    The IHME model on April 2 model explicitly assumed full social distancing through May 2020.

    The Covid-19 models, especially IHME have ZERO credibility. The IHME model has been used by the media, Federal and state governments to alarm the country about the threat of the coronavirus.

    In six days starting April 2, two revisions on April 5 and 8 have completely discredited the model produced by IHME. Looking at the the new data compared with just days ago the projection was 100,000 - 240,000 deaths - The projection of likely deaths dropped 12 percent in just three days, from 93,531 to 81,766.

    Understand, this projection was drawn from a range on April 2, the IHME was telling us COVID-19 deaths could reach as high as 178,000. The upper range was also reduced on April 5 to 136,000.

    On April 8 the projected cumulative deaths were slashed to 60,145 to an upper limit to about 126,000). In less than a week, the model proved to be off by more than 33 percent.

    Now, I don’t fault anyone for using the model to make initial decisions. It was better to take a cautious approach. However, the model has been proven to lack any credibility. At the same time decisions continue being made using the same model. Again, the model included assumptions with social distancing and measures to slow the spread.

    We’re still basing decisions on fear and emotion, rather than looking at what the actual data is telling us.

  13. #73
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    Aug 2009
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    6,110
    Quote Originally Posted by proudbroncsfan View Post
    Here's some food for thought. With vaccines and several preventative treatments for the flu we still have a 50 to 60k in deaths each year.

    Covid models which had been shrinking now has the death numbers at some 60k to 70k *from 250k+ prior* total and still trending down.

    New Treatments have been shown to be effective, we are seeing s variety of different test being rolled out that by mid july we will have surpluses in tests. The number of ventilators, beds etc will continue to grow. We will see if they can produce vaccines right now we have them saying any where from months to 18.

    As for additional waves dont look to 1918 flu where we had horrid levels of medical care compared to today.

    The country can not survive a shut down beyond May. From forecasting we should see a reopening in May.

    Basketball and hockey seasons are dead.
    Baseball is still 50 50 for a half season.
    Football should have almost a full season...
    Multiple waves of covid are a very real possibility. History has proven pandemics often, but not always, occur this way.

  14. #74
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    MD
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    Thread cleaned.

    It's late and I might have missed something or I might have deleted something I shouldn't have. If you have any questions, please PM me.

    Want to talk about the coronavirus? There's a thread for that.

    Just remember to keep politics out of all forums.
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  15. #75
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    Dec 2015
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    Article:

    CORONAVIRUS: NO SPORTS UNTIL THANKSGIVING? SANTA CLARA COUNTY OFFICIAL THINKS SO

    https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-can...draft/6090706/

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