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  1. #1
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    Mar 2005
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    Lelie's Comp Value

    A lot of talk lately about Lelie being traded, and what his value is. It doenst look like I have heard too many rumors thur far about where he may land though. Could be anywhere. We have heard Javon may go to Eagles, us, or San Fran. Lelie hasnt really been linked to any teams. Unfortunately it may be there isnt too much demand for a WR with his #'s. So I think the answer is simple.

    Dont trade Lelie.

    This is a great read I found on a message board. Several people linked to this very post. And as you can see his predictions are very accurate.

    Here is his post, and the link to it.

    For the fifth consecutive year and sixth overall, Iíve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. During the past three years, Iíve averaged 24.7 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.0 more.

    As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

    Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, Iíve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with small adjustments for playing time and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.

    It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesnít suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been eight of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all eight cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

    I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula, which Iím sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I donít pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.

    In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

    Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFLís comp equation was Bobby Hamilton, who signed for $685,000 per season and started 15 games. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Cornell Green, who signed for $710,000 per season and played only one play Ė and that was on special teams. To determine the approximate cutoff points for this yearís comps, I raised last yearís cutoffs by the same percentage as the increase in RFA tenders from 2004 to 2005, which was 4.5 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2005 was equal to Bobby Hamiltonís in 2004, and who signed for about $715,000 per season, should qualify for the equation. But a player who signed for about $742,000 and almost never played (for reasons other than being on Injured Reserve) should not qualify. Determining whether players who signed for less than $800,000 per season qualify for the equation is one of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were nine players on the bubble this year, including one whose case is the first of its kind. Kyle Vanden Bosch signed a one-year contract for only $480,000, but he started all 16 games and made the Pro Bowl. For years, Iíve wondered whether a Pro Bowl player automatically would qualify for the comp equation regardless of his salary, and now we should find out. Iím projecting that Vanden Bosch will qualify. The eight other bubble players are Anthony Thomas ($1.0 million, cut after eight weeks), Todd Peterson ($790,000, 16 GP/16 GS as kicker), Keith Burns ($790,000, played almost exclusively on special teams), Shad Meier ($770,000, played less than 30 plays all season), Stockar McDougle ($750,000, 8 Games Played/2 Games Started), Matt Lehr ($710,000, 15 GP/15 GS), Antowain Smith ($690,000, 16 GP/7 GS) and Roberto Garza (signed for $594,000 but renegotiated to $1.585 million in December, 16 GP/7 GS). Iím projecting that Vanden Bosch, Burns, Meier, McDougle, Lehr and Garza will qualify but Thomas (cut too soon) and Smith (salary too low) will not.

    Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, third-round comp players got at least $5.167 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4.167 million to $5.5 million, fifth-round comp players got $2.6 million to $3.589 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.967 million to $2.91 million, and seventh-round players got $1.75 million or less. When determining the approximate ranges for this yearís comps, I again used a 4.5-percent increase over last yearís levels and adjusted for playing time and postseason honors.

    As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, Iím projecting that there will be only 25 true comp picks awarded, so there should be seven non-compensatory picks awarded, to Houston, New Orleans, Green Bay, San Francisco, Oakland, Tennessee and the New York Jets, in that order.

    Here are the projected picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and their average contract value Ė

    THIRD ROUND
    N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS)

    FOURTH ROUND
    Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15)
    Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14)
    Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR)
    Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15)
    Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR)

    FIFTH ROUND
    Philadelphia (Derrick Burgess, $3.491 million, 16/12, Pro Bowl)
    Green Bay (Marco Rivera, $3.80 million, 14/14)
    Pittsburgh (Oliver Ross, $3.50 million, 12/11)
    Tampa Bay (Dwight Smith, $3.04 million, 15/15)
    Tennessee (Andre Dyson, $3.501 million, 10/6)
    Baltimore (Casey Rabach, $2.825 million, 16/16)

    SIXTH ROUND
    Philadelphia (Jermane Mayberry, $3.009 million, 11/8)
    New England (David Patten, $2.60 million, 9/7 IR)
    New England (Joe Andruzzi, $2.194 million, 13/13)
    Indianapolis (Rick DeMulling, $2.275 million, 14/5)

    SEVENTH ROUND
    Baltimore (Bennie Anderson, $1.706 million, 16/15)
    Tampa Bay (Chartric Darby, $1.0 million, 14/14)
    St. Louis (Tommy Polley, $800,000, 16/15)
    St. Louis (Matt Lehr, $710,000, 15/15)
    Tampa Bay (Keith Burns, $790,000, 15/1)
    Detroit (Stockar McDougle, $750,000, (8/2)
    Buffalo (net value; lost $9.49 million, 19/19, IR ; signed $3.409 million, 26/23)
    Seattle (net value; lost $12.167 million, 47/43; signed $7.001 million, 40/35)
    Washington (net value; lost $10.075 million, 24/21; signed $5.425 million, 25/23 IR)
    Houston (non-compensatory)
    New Orleans (non-compensatory)
    Green Bay (non-compensatory)
    San Francisco (non-compensatory)
    Oakland (non-compensatory)
    Tennessee (non-compensatory)
    New York Jets (non-compensatory)
    Link

    I found this to be very interesting. And would be great to see what next yr looks like. Regardles, back to my last original thought. See next post for continuation.

  2. #2
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    Mar 2005
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    To Continue....

    Dont trade Lelie.

    This post explains that the most impt part of the comp pick equation is the contract signed by the FA. Which makes sense, because it helps to determine how valuable this player truly was, by seenig how much another team will pay for him. If we look at the contracts signed by Randel EL, he avged over 4 million/year. Burelson's contract was 7 million/year (though this number was inflated to screw with Minnesota). I think there is a definite possibility that Lelie will sign for over 4 million a year next year. Especially with the higher salary cap in place. So that woudl make his value a 4th rd pick. Who knows if he actually has a good year here, he might even sign for more, elevating his potential comp pick value. So if nobody is willing to offer at least a minimum of a 3rd rd pick, than there is no point in trading Lelie. We can use him for a full yr, and at the end of the year, when he walks, we shoudl be rewarded with a 4th rd pick. I hope the front office is keeping hs potential comp pick value in mind when considering trading him.

  3. #3
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    You make a very good point. What about when it comes to comparing him to another player though?

  4. #4
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    Guys, the bridges have been napalmed to the ground IMO. Shanny never goes back on his word, or action in this case.

  5. #5
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    Mar 2005
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    Yh but if its smarter to keep him, then keep him. Dont trade him for a 4th rder. That makes no sense. We would get a 4th anyways. May as well keep him, and play hm. If we got Javon, how sick woudl that be if Lelie was our #3. He will still play hard, he knows he is playing for his contract next yr.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ydave77
    Yh but if its smarter to keep him, then keep him. Dont trade him for a 4th rder. That makes no sense. We would get a 4th anyways. May as well keep him, and play hm. If we got Javon, how sick woudl that be if Lelie was our #3. He will still play hard, he knows he is playing for his contract next yr.
    Agreed. If the value isn't there, then don't push it. Perhaps both Ash and Mike would reconsider after a year of playing with Javon.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ydave77
    Dont trade Lelie.

    This post explains that the most impt part of the comp pick equation is the contract signed by the FA. Which makes sense, because it helps to determine how valuable this player truly was, by seenig how much another team will pay for him. If we look at the contracts signed by Randel EL, he avged over 4 million/year. Burelson's contract was 7 million/year (though this number was inflated to screw with Minnesota). I think there is a definite possibility that Lelie will sign for over 4 million a year next year. Especially with the higher salary cap in place. So that woudl make his value a 4th rd pick. Who knows if he actually has a good year here, he might even sign for more, elevating his potential comp pick value. So if nobody is willing to offer at least a minimum of a 3rd rd pick, than there is no point in trading Lelie. We can use him for a full yr, and at the end of the year, when he walks, we shoudl be rewarded with a 4th rd pick. I hope the front office is keeping hs potential comp pick value in mind when considering trading him.
    But, that's ONLY if a FA isn't brought in at a higher contract, right?

    So, if denver were to bring in a wr, and sign him to a $4m contract, denver would be OUT a wr.......

    I'd say the only way to guarantee a pick, would be to tag him, with maybe a 2nd round tender.......
    ...then, if somebody signs him, denver is guaranteed the pick.
    "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate,
    tireless minority keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of
    men."

    -- Samuel Adams

    Jacks RULE!!!!!!

  8. #8
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    Mar 2005
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    Yes the equation takes into account the net gain/loss of Free agents. More likely thought we will address WR this year. We witll either trade for Javon, or unfortunatley probably draft a WR. If this occurs, its less likely we got out and get a high profile WR in FA next yr. So in that case letting Lelie walk still, would result ni a substantial chance fo getting a comp pick.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcsodak
    But, that's ONLY if a FA isn't brought in at a higher contract, right?

    So, if denver were to bring in a wr, and sign him to a $4m contract, denver would be OUT a wr.......

    I'd say the only way to guarantee a pick, would be to tag him, with maybe a 2nd round tender.......
    ...then, if somebody signs him, denver is guaranteed the pick.

    You can't tag him with a 2nd round tender!!!! He is not going to be a restricted free agent he is going to be an un restricted free agent therefore we can offer him a contract but when he turns it down and it sure sounds like he will he will go to another team and we will get nothing for him except maybe a comp pick. If and only If we can get Javon from the pack then you trade this guy for a 3rd or a 4th round pick if you can get that. But as the niners front office has already stated and I am sure the rest of the league is aware of, even if the Lelie lovers on this board aren't, Lelie is a 1 dimmensional reciever. He is a very good deep threat which will help a team stretch the field if that is what they are looking for but that is about the only area he is going to help a club in. If you mean use the transition tag or the franchise tag then you are out of your freakin mind cause then we would have to pay him the average of the top 5 WR's for the franchise tag, & or the average of the top ten wr's for the transition tag. He isn't a top 50 reciever in this league
    Last edited by 24TheCHAMP24; 04-22-2006 at 11:21 PM.

    Thanks to dbfan2007 for sig

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by 24TheCHAMP24
    You can't tag him with a 2nd round tender!!!! He is not going to be a restricted free agent he is going to be an un restricted free agent therefore we can offer him a contract but when he turns it down and it sure sounds like he will he will go to another team and we will get nothing for him except maybe a comp pick. If and only If we can get Javon from the pack then you trade this guy for a 3rd or a 4th round pick if you can get that. But as the niners front office has already stated and I am sure the rest of the league is aware of, even if the Lelie lovers on this board aren't, Lelie is a 1 dimmensional reciever. He is a very good deep threat which will help a team stretch the field if that is what they are looking for but that is about the only area he is going to help a club in. If you mean use the transition tag or the franchise tag then you are out of your freakin mind cause then we would have to pay him the average of the top 5 WR's for the franchise tag, & or the average of the top ten wr's for the transition tag. He isn't a top 50 reciever in this league
    Yh the only way to forcibly keep him next yr, would be to place the franshice or transitional tag on him. But I think people would laugh us right out of the league, since there is no way he is worth anything near that amount of money (avg salary of the top 5 WR's)

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