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  1. #1
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    New Research on Javon

    My Rebuttal to West's Research

    This post is designed the true worth of Javon, and how good he really can be. Haha, West I gotta hand it to you. You almost had me doubting how great Javon can be for us. And I am a supporter of Javon. The research looked convincing at first glance. But after further inspection of the stats, the best answer is....What do you expect.

    Here is the post I am referring to where you try to show that Javon is over-rated:

    Well since 90% of the recievers in this league don't do much before their third year you can toss his first two out. He then blew it up in his third season to something like 90 catches 1400 yards & 12 TD,s. He came out for his fourth season and tore his acl in the third qurter of the first game. Personally to me if it is between using a first rounder on a reciever in the crap shoot known as the NFL draft or giving one up for this guy I would roll the dice that in this day of modern medicine & rehab his knee will be fine like many players before him that have torn their acl rather then rolling the dice on a reciever in the first round when the success rate for them is about 40% at best and most of them came from the top ten picks.


    His stats are about right but against what defenses? None of the NFC North pass defenses were anywhere near the top in 04. None were in the top half of the ranking column. And he saw, Minnesota, Chicago and Detriot twice that year. I'll break it down game by game for you.

    Carolina: 2 catches 37 yards (1st in INTs, 12th in completion %, 12th in completions)
    Chicago: 7 catches 102 yards (bottom half in INTs, bottom half in yards, bottom half in yards per game)
    Indy: 11 catches 200 yards 3 TDs (bottom 5 in yards given up, last in completion %, 2nd to last in completions)
    New York(Giants): 3 catches 37 yards (top ten in yards, top ten in completions)
    Tennessee: 8 catches 159 yards (bottom 5 in yards, bottom 10 in TDs, bottom 5 in completion %)
    Detriot: 2 catches 62 yards (bottom half in yards, bottom ten in completion %, bottom 10 in completions)
    Dallas: 8 catches 129 yards TD (bottom half in yards, bottom 5 in TDs, bottom half in completions)
    Washington: 5 catches 57 yards TD (top ten in yards, top ten in TDs, top half of completions)
    Minnesota: 3 catches 74 yards TD (bottom 5 in yards, bottom ten in TDs, bottom 5 in completions)
    Houston: 9 catches 88 yards (bottom ten in yards, bottom 5 in TDs, bottom 5 in completions)
    St. Louis: 2 catches 15 yards TD (top half in yards, top half in completions, top half in completion %)
    Philadelphia: 7 catches 72 yards TD (bottom half in yards, bottom ten in completions, bottom half in completion %)
    Detroit: 3 catches 26 yards (see above)
    Jacksonville: 11 catches 152 yards (bottom half in yards, bottom half in completions, bottom ten in completion %)
    Minnesota: 5 catches 90 yards TD (see above)
    Chicago: 3 catches 82 yards TD (see above)

    Now your probably wondering what does all this mean? Well it means that his stats were altered by the fact that he never did well against a good defense. And i'll break it down to you even more. Of his regular season stats, 69 of his 89 catches came against poor ranking pass defenses that is 77.5% of his stats. Of his 1382 yards, 1077 of them came against poor pass defenses. That is 77.9% of his yards. That is 11 games. He averaged 6 catches for 98 yards in those games. Now as for the games against good defenses, he averaged 3 catches for 37 yards.

    It can't be more clear than that.


    The stats were somewhat slanted to favor one side of the arguement. The best approach would have been to use one uniform criterion, or even the same three criteria for each team. But instead the criteria besides each team name, were chosen to favor your arguement. Some teams had listed INT's, other had TD's allowed, still other had completion %, yards per game, etc etc. You used difft crietria for each team to fit your purposes. To make it seem like the defense was as good or as bad as you wanted them to be. For example when you suggest that Carolina is a "good pass defense", you list that they are #1 in INT's but dont mention, they are bottom half in yards allowed. Later you reference Jax as a "bad pass defense", when they allowed less yards than Carolina did. The criteria that were listed, were chosen to support your arguement. It seems as though you first looked at Javons game, then looked for any stats to back up your side of the arguement.

    The only fair way to do this kind of study, is to first define a uniform set of criteria to evaluate each team. I will make this simple, passing yards per game. That is what the NFL uses when ranking pass defenses and should suffice for this little experiment.

    So now we look at all of Javons games in 2004, and see which teams were better than average (defined as top half in passing yards per game) and those that were worse than average (defined as bottom half in passing yards allowed).

    Carolina: 2 catches 37 yards (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Chicago: 7 catches 102 yards (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Indy: 11 catches 200 yards 3 TDs (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    New York(Giants): 3 catches 37 yards 1 TD (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Tennessee: 8 catches 159 yards (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Detriot: 2 catches 62 yards (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Dallas: 8 catches 129 yards TD (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Washington: 5 catches 57 yards TD (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Minnesota: 3 catches 74 yards TD (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Houston: 9 catches 88 yards (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    St. Louis: 2 catches 15 yards TD (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Philadelphia: 7 catches 72 yards TD (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Detroit: 3 catches 26 yards (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Jacksonville: 11 catches 152 yards (Top half in passing yards per game)

    Minnesota: 5 catches 90 yards TD (Bottom half in passing yards per game)

    Chicago: 3 catches 82 yards TD (Top half in passing yards per game)




    Now evaluating this data is simple. Javon played 7 games against better than average pass Defenses, and 11 games against teams with weaker than average pass defenses.

    As your arguement seems to be that he doesnt play well against good defenses, lets take a look at how he did against them.

    In his 7 games against the top half, he had 518 yards, which equals 74 yards per game. Now that 74 yds per game projects to ~1200 yds in a full 16 game season.
    But wait....thats not all. Lets not forget he had 5 TD's in those 7 games. That projects to betwene 11 and 12 TD's in a 16 game season.
    So....1200 yds and 12 tds, thats a great yr. Any of us woudl be overjoyed to get a player that got us those #'s. But lets rememember thats these projected stats are valid if he played the whole year against pass defenses in the top half. I think he will still have a few creampuffs to get even better numbers. Hahaha, I mean KC is still in the division right?

    By the way West, I hope you dont take this as an attack, because I am just trying to show another direction. I am writing this out, because I liked your post, it really got me thinking. And thats why we post right?

  2. #2
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    My conclusions, from the above, are basically that Javon is worth the price of admission. Even if its a 2nd rd pick. He will be worth it. He has the talent to play well, even against the top teams. He can provide us with a superior receiving threat. As I meniotned in another thread, another way to look at getting Javon for a 2nd rder is the following?
    What woudl you rather have

    Chad Jackson + Pick #37

    or

    Javon Walker + Pick #15.

    Because if we dont get Walker, we will likely use 15 on Jackson (or Santonio). Walker is a proven weapon, who can beat NFL cornerbacks, while the rookies are unknown, and at best will take 2-3 years before they can provide any serious help to our offense. At worst they will bust. WR has perhaps the greatest percentage of busts along with QB.

    The smart move is to take Javon. Hopefully the above post can help show why I believe that to be true.

    Anyone has any other comments on Javon in general, whether we should trade for him, whether he is worth giving up a 2nd rder for, whether he has the talent to be a stud, please chime in!!!

  3. #3
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    You make a good point about evaluating in a uniform manner.

    But, I simply must disagree with the idea that yards allowed per game is a decent way to evaluate a team's defense.

    The thing is that teams that these statistics are too easily skewed by what types of games a team plays. If a team leads a lot, they will always face more pass attempts. Teams will pass to try to catch up. This skews statistics. 300 yard passing games come very often in losing efforts simply for this reason. Sometimes teams will get completely blown out, but they will gain a good number of yards because of how often they pass.

    Whenever I try to examine statistics, I pay the most heed to per attempt statistics (completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per completion).

    Another valuable statistical tool is that provided by footballoutsiders. It's called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Basically, it situationally looks at what type of success a team has. If a team gains 8 yards on a first down, that's pretty successful, but on a third and 10 that's not successful. It takes all of this into account and gives a decent idea of how successful a team is in certain situations. It also considers what type of competition they have faced and adjusts for this. It's not a perfect system, but it is pretty good. If you are looking for a single measure of which teams had good pass defenses and which didn't, DVOA would be valuable.

    Of course, there are different ways to have a good defense. One way would be to cover second and third wide recievers, tight ends and running backs pretty well only to allow the occasional big play by the number one reciever.. Another would be to lock down on the first and second wide recievers, but to allow some yardage to third wide recievers, tight ends and running backs.

    When you look for whether teams were able to shut down Javon Walker, it would be useful to see how that team did against first wide recievers. That would show what Javon was able to do against teams that were good at stopping other first wide recievers.

    According to DVOA rankings, Ashley Lelie ranked 18th in the league. Javon Walker was ranked 22nd. That means that any particular pass play in which the ball was thrown to one of these players, Lelie appeared to have more value.

    The thing is that last year, Lelie was ranked very much lower than in 2004. He dropped from 18th in their rankings to 50th. This is quite a drop. Sometimes he played pretty well. Other times, he didn't. Of course, there's no guarantee that Javon Walker couldn't experience another similar dropoff. And it could very well be that Ashley Lelie really was better than appeared. He was asked quite often to run deep routes. It's entirely possible that he could have posted better numbers if he wasn't asked to go deep so often. This is what Lelie's proponents tend to suggest.

    It's hard to say. We just don't know whether Javon will be any better than Lelie.

    EDIT:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2004.php <--DVOA rankings by footballoutsiders.com
    Last edited by Archimedes Owl; 04-27-2006 at 02:49 AM.
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  4. #4
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    You guys have made great points, however we need to also consider the system he was in. In 2004 Favre's DPAR was 83.5 ranked 7th in the leafue. In 2005 it dropped to 40.5 ranking him 15th in the league. There are three major reasons for this change. RB injuries, which is a minor factor since they found productive replacements. O-line losses, which is probably a big factor. Finally, the loss of Javon Walker, because even with the great o-line in 2003 and three when Walker was still learning the system Favre put up a DPAR of only 43.2. Walker's great year helped out an average team.

    Owl- Looking at the the 2004 DPAR they rank Walker 8th with 33.7 and Lelie 16th with 26.5. So it seems that Lelie has more value per play, but Walker is the better over all value. At least for the one year 2004. "The simple version: DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play."

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb.php

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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Archimedes Owl
    You make a good point about evaluating in a uniform manner.

    But, I simply must disagree with the idea that yards allowed per game is a decent way to evaluate a team's defense.

    The thing is that teams that these statistics are too easily skewed by what types of games a team plays. If a team leads a lot, they will always face more pass attempts. Teams will pass to try to catch up. This skews statistics. 300 yard passing games come very often in losing efforts simply for this reason. Sometimes teams will get completely blown out, but they will gain a good number of yards because of how often they pass.

    Whenever I try to examine statistics, I pay the most heed to per attempt statistics (completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per completion).

    Another valuable statistical tool is that provided by footballoutsiders. It's called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Basically, it situationally looks at what type of success a team has. If a team gains 8 yards on a first down, that's pretty successful, but on a third and 10 that's not successful. It takes all of this into account and gives a decent idea of how successful a team is in certain situations. It also considers what type of competition they have faced and adjusts for this. It's not a perfect system, but it is pretty good. If you are looking for a single measure of which teams had good pass defenses and which didn't, DVOA would be valuable.

    Of course, there are different ways to have a good defense. One way would be to cover second and third wide recievers, tight ends and running backs pretty well only to allow the occasional big play by the number one reciever.. Another would be to lock down on the first and second wide recievers, but to allow some yardage to third wide recievers, tight ends and running backs.

    When you look for whether teams were able to shut down Javon Walker, it would be useful to see how that team did against first wide recievers. That would show what Javon was able to do against teams that were good at stopping other first wide recievers.

    According to DVOA rankings, Ashley Lelie ranked 18th in the league. Javon Walker was ranked 22nd. That means that any particular pass play in which the ball was thrown to one of these players, Lelie appeared to have more value.

    The thing is that last year, Lelie was ranked very much lower than in 2004. He dropped from 18th in their rankings to 50th. This is quite a drop. Sometimes he played pretty well. Other times, he didn't. Of course, there's no guarantee that Javon Walker couldn't experience another similar dropoff. And it could very well be that Ashley Lelie really was better than appeared. He was asked quite often to run deep routes. It's entirely possible that he could have posted better numbers if he wasn't asked to go deep so often. This is what Lelie's proponents tend to suggest.

    It's hard to say. We just don't know whether Javon will be any better than Lelie.

    EDIT:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr2004.php <--DVOA rankings by footballoutsiders.com
    I agree with you to some extent Archimedes. Yards per game may not be the most accurate way to measure defensive ability, but it does have some merit. First of all, teams all have to deal with the same issues, in that when their team has the lead the other team may pass more, and when they are losing the other team may run more. This is universal, but the frequency varies between teams. In the end, the better defensive units, will hold up better even against increases in amount of passing. As for Yards per Attempt, it too has some flaws. For example, when a team plays an excellent pass defense they are more likely to run. As such the defense may compensate, by bringing in an 8th man in the box, or the Defensive coach may sacrifice some of his better pass defenders for better rush D when the other team shows that it is committed to runing, bc they are worried about the secondary. Now when the opposing team passes, it is more likely to exploit that change. Each metric certainly has its own flaws, and though crude I do think this analysis has some merit. Again this analsyis isnt to demonstrate who had the #4 overall pass D, it is a crude measurement, to sort the teams into only 2 categories. Above average and below average. I think this metric can accomplish that task.
    Perhaps the best we coudl have done here, without having in depth play by play analysis would be to rank each team by what we deem might be the 3 mos impt characteristics of a good pass D. I think Total yards, Yards per Attempt, and receptions for TDs would be the most impt metrics. The next step would be to rank each team in these 3 categories. Then we could assign point values to each rank, and add up the points gained from all 3 categories, I think we would have a more than adequate system of evaluating those Defenses. Again that woudl be more than enough to sort teams into above avg, or below avg. Then again, thats a bit much work to prove what I think is obvious.
    Javon>Lelie.

  7. #7
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    There is only one stat that matters. The number of wins a team has at the end of a season. You can give up 3000 yards per game but if you are winning you are still better than the other teams.

  8. #8
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    All of this is great information. There is one very important thing left out, blown ACL VS Healthy.

  9. #9
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    That's fair reasoning.

    My top three statistics for measuring pass defense are:

    Completion percentage allowed
    Yards allowed per completion
    Interceptions (I'd go with interceptions per attempt, but I'd have to figure that out on my own.)

    Really, though, I honestly consider the yards per game statistic to be one of the weaker ones to compare with. The number of pass attempts just varies too much. Actually, Denver's a perfect example of this. I mean, Denver ranked 29th in the league in yards allowed per game, but allowed the third lowest completion percentage, the 10th lowest yards per completion and the sixth most interceptions. Still, we held the lead often enough to cause us to have faced far more pass attempts than any other team and our stats appeared much worse than our team played. By any of the other statistical measures, we had a good pass defense.

    Included in this would be the DVOA measurement by footballoutsiders who ranked us fourth.

    Denver wasn't the only team to have this type of skewing of per game statistics. Another team that had a similar problem was Pittsburgh. Theirs wasn't nearly as drastic, but they allowed the eighth lowest completion percentage and the ninth lowest yards per attempt, but they only ranked 16th in yards allowed per game. They were by per attempt measures a top ten pass defense, but by per game measures, they were mediocre.

    Where is this discrepancy comes from is that individual plays are affected less by the in-game situations than games are affected. Further complicating the per game statistic is that there are only 16 games in the season to draw information from. On the other hand, there are lots more plays in a season for which to formulate statistics.

    That all being said, I've kind of been going off topic. I was just saying why I prefered a different measuring stick of good defenses than just the yards allowed per game. I agree with your assessment that Javon is a bit better than Lelie. Of course, it was only one season. So it's hard to say that Javon Walker is clearly better than Lelie or that he is leaps or bounds better. I believe that there are valid arguments against that idea. It is true that Favre looked very good in 2004. When he still had all of his weapons, he looked better and having a superior quarterback throwing to you will make any reciever look better.
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  10. #10
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    All this is purely my opinion.

    If lelie really wants out then I wouldn't mind trading to bring in Walker. However I would like to see what Heimerdinger can do with the WRs we already have on the roster, including Lelie. I don't rate our need at WR as high as others because we have people who have been learning our system and now is the time for them to produce. This year, I think that we have enough seeds planted that some will bear fruit, we should wait and see before we plant too many more.

    Let's do what we can right now to give them the best chance, a good all around TE option to keep the Defense guessing, and a RB who can keep us out of obvious passing situations. Do we have these on the team already or should we draft them, I don't know.

  11. #11
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    Stop all the madness

    Walker vs Lelie. Why? Walker and Lelie is the answer. Rod Smith is 76 years old. If we were to get rid of Lelie and get Walker, we would still need a WR in next year's draft. After we go to the SuperBowl and win it Rod Smith could decide to hang it up. I do think Walker does things that Lelie can't, 90 catches is important. That's movin the chains. Not just making a circus catch on first down, and dissapearing on third down and punting anyways. But there is no reason not to keep Lelie and let them all play together for a year or two. We couldn't put three wide recievers on the field at the same time last year. When your third option on 3rd and 6 is the fullback(no offense Kyle), you have to do more than gamble with a draft pick.

  12. #12
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    I still dont think he's worth a first day pick because there's no guarantee he'll stick around after this season, and we dont have the CAP space to sign him to the mega deal he demanded...And lets remember the way he demanded this mega deal threatening to hold out and later claiming he would retire.
    Last edited by BroncoStampede; 04-27-2006 at 07:55 AM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ydave77
    Chad Jackson + Pick #37

    or

    Javon Walker + Pick #15.
    This is what sums it up for me. I believe whole-heartedly that any WR in this draft will be a monumental bust.

    I'd rather have a semi-wounded vet than anyone in this draft catching passes for us.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroncoStampede
    I still dont think he's worth a first day pick because there's no guarantee he'll stick around after this season, and we dont have the CAP space to sign him to the mega deal he demanded...And lets remember the way he demanded this mega deal threatening to hold out and later claiming he would retire.
    HE ISN'T THREATENING TO RETIRE BECAUSE OF MONEY.

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    Thank you for pointing that out.

    He never threatend to retire because of money. He was a mid round pick that is under paid for what he brings to his team. He asked for more money. This probably could have been handled better(Drew Rosenhouse was his agent, he fired the bum). He is upset because Brett Farve called him out and said that he should get into camp for the team. If nobody noticed he did that without a new deal. Everybody in Green Bay turned their back on him and said he was selfish because the great Brett Favre said he should put the team before himself. Now the great Brett Favre leaves the team wondering what he's gonna do until a week before the draft and nobody has a problem with it. I heard Javon Walker checked into a Green Bay hotel and the guy at the front desk sarcastically announced he was there and the people standing around booed. This guy didn't get a new deal blew out his knee and jeopardized his future profits because Brett Favre said so and that is the treatment he gets. That is why he wants out of Green Bay. Not to mention the fact that they aren't any good and neither is Aaron Rodgers.

    p.s. Can anyone find me what Javon Walker's current contract actually is.
    Last edited by ballen; 04-27-2006 at 08:38 AM. Reason: adding a point

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