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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontfeedthenerd
    in attempts 1 through 10, Tatum averaged 6.2 ypc. In attempts 11 to 20, he averaged 2.9 ypc.

    Quite a dropoff but you have to factor in the fact that he got a whole lot less carries in the 11 to 20 range.

    http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpag...89/splits/2005


    I want Tatum as our starter as much as anyone else, but he has to prove himself first.
    Ok, I'll throw some stats out to show that this YPC is currently just not relevant when evaluating Tatum. I am going to show two things.

    First:

    One problem we have is that he has not had enough carries between 11 to 20 to be meaningful. Here are the games he had over 10 carries:

    17
    16
    12
    13
    15
    12
    13
    14
    16
    12
    17
    17

    So, he only averaged 4.5 carries in that 11-20 band. We all know that you don't break a big run every time, so you have a few short or no gain carries and then you get a 5, 10 or longer run. (Ok, some may throw out the fact that I should have used the median instead of the average. I am not a statistics guru, so that might be right, but if I did my math right, 4.5 would also be the Median in this case).

    Ok, now for my Second point to show how meaningless that YPC is:

    The last two games of the season, Tatum rushed 17 times, which ties his career high in rushes that he has had in 3 games.

    In week 17 against San Diego, his last seven rushes (rushes 11-17) were:
    0
    4
    5
    1
    2
    0
    19

    A couple stops, a could small gains, a couple decent gains, and broke a 19 yard TD on his 17th carry of the game.

    In week 16 against Oakland, his last seven rushes were:

    3
    -3
    2
    2
    2
    4
    3

    Ok, other than the one loss, these were ok, but nothing great, but when you consider Dayne's last seven were


    2
    3
    0
    2
    4
    1
    4

    You see that the numbers are pretty comparable, Dayne is a little higher per carry, but it give you an idea of what the Oak D was giving up. (It should be noted that Dayne only had 8 carries, so these were carries 2-8 for him, no tired excuse here). Ok, but here is the interesting stat:

    If you go back one more rush for each runner and look at Dayne's first carry and Bell's tenth:

    Dayne 6
    Bell 35

    So, on Bell's tenth carry he runs for 35, but then poof, there is no more energy? It doesn't make sense, especially when we see the 19 yard TD run on his 17th carry in SD.

    The fact is that when he is only averaging 4.5 carries per game in the 11-20 range (not even truely per game, that's only the games where he got over 10), then there just isn't enough data to know how he will run given more carries. In the last two games of the season, we see him break off a 35 yarder on his 10th carry in week 16and in the last game, he breaks off a 19 yard TD run on his 17th carry. That stat has been overused and isn't valid for lack of data.
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt


  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontfeedthenerd
    in attempts 1 through 10, Tatum averaged 6.2 ypc. In attempts 11 to 20, he averaged 2.9 ypc.

    Quite a dropoff but you have to factor in the fact that he got a whole lot less carries in the 11 to 20 range.

    http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpag...89/splits/2005


    I want Tatum as our starter as much as anyone else, but he has to prove himself first.
    I am anti-Tater, but as even that stat page says, he didn't get a single carry in the 20+ range.

    You can use that to ...

    A) Try and back him up, "Hey, you don't know if he can take the load, he's never had the chance!"

    or B) Use that to say, "Well if his average slumped to a measly 2.9 before he ever even reached twenty, what makes you think he can handle any more?"

    I'll choose option B please.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by tnedator
    Ok, I'll throw some stats out to show that this YPC is currently just not relevant when evaluating Tatum. I am going to show two things.

    First:

    One problem we have is that he has not had enough carries between 11 to 20 to be meaningful. Here are the games he had over 10 carries:

    17
    16
    12
    13
    15
    12
    13
    14
    16
    12
    17
    17

    So, he only averaged 4.5 carries in that 11-20 band. We all know that you don't break a big run every time, so you have a few short or no gain carries and then you get a 5, 10 or longer run. (Ok, some may throw out the fact that I should have used the median instead of the average. I am not a statistics guru, so that might be right, but if I did my math right, 4.5 would also be the Median in this case).

    Ok, now for my Second point to show how meaningless that YPC is:

    The last two games of the season, Tatum rushed 17 times, which ties his career high in rushes that he has had in 3 games.

    In week 17 against San Diego, his last seven rushes (rushes 11-17) were:
    0
    4
    5
    1
    2
    0
    19

    A couple stops, a could small gains, a couple decent gains, and broke a 19 yard TD on his 17th carry of the game.

    In week 16 against Oakland, his last seven rushes were:

    3
    -3
    2
    2
    2
    4
    3

    Ok, other than the one loss, these were ok, but nothing great, but when you consider Dayne's last seven were


    2
    3
    0
    2
    4
    1
    4

    You see that the numbers are pretty comparable, Dayne is a little higher per carry, but it give you an idea of what the Oak D was giving up. (It should be noted that Dayne only had 8 carries, so these were carries 2-8 for him, no tired excuse here). Ok, but here is the interesting stat:

    If you go back one more rush for each runner and look at Dayne's first carry and Bell's tenth:

    Dayne 6
    Bell 35

    So, on Bell's tenth carry he runs for 35, but then poof, there is no more energy? It doesn't make sense, especially when we see the 19 yard TD run on his 17th carry in SD.

    The fact is that when he is only averaging 4.5 carries per game in the 11-20 range (not even truely per game, that's only the games where he got over 10), then there just isn't enough data to know how he will run given more carries. In the last two games of the season, we see him break off a 35 yarder on his 10th carry in week 16and in the last game, he breaks off a 19 yard TD run on his 17th carry. That stat has been overused and isn't valid for lack of data.
    Great post, it is a good way to break it down. it is true that people do get bogged down in averages too much with these stats. However, it doesn't really matter if he averaged only 4.5 carries beyond ten per game. I do agree that when using averages...it is kind of silly to just use them at arbitrary cut-off points like this, especially considering the variability of his run distances within the category. I think I spoke too soon in my other post.

    But, if you think about it, the fact that there actually are games where he broke long runs like in SD at the end, kind of adds to the other side of the argument. For example, he was getting 4.43 ypc in the San Diego game in those last 7 rushes when you include the 19 yarder, but up to that point he was only getting 2 ypc.

    There isn't really a perfect way to slice it with this stuff. I guess what it comes down to is the fact that Tatum is someone who can break a nice long run from time to time, but without that, he tends to get stuffed a lot. So what really matters is consistency. If you are 3rd and 3 and need to move the chains, what are the odds of Tatum doing it? If he doesn't break one, getting that 3 yards is not a piece of cake for him.

    That's why to me, subjectively if I can see him gain some of the tough yardage more consistently, I'll be a lot happier. I love watching him take it to the house half the field, but also like being able to eat up the clock with a long drive and just go 10 at a time.
    Go Broncos, make me keep believing this year

    http://www.notmike.com/images/heman.jpg

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by MN-Broncofreak
    That's why to me, subjectively if I can see him gain some of the tough yardage more consistently, I'll be a lot happier. I love watching him take it to the house half the field, but also like being able to eat up the clock with a long drive and just go 10 at a time.
    I agree 100%
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt


  5. #65
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    What we really need to look at is 666. Maybe I will blow tomorrow night working on 666 with Tatum and piss my wife off some more.

    Since 17 has been his max carry, it would be good to compare 6 carry buckets:

    1-6
    7-12
    13-18

    Maybe I will do this tomorrow for Dayne, Tatum and Anderson from last years stats..
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt


  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by tnedator
    What we really need to look at is 666. Maybe I will blow tomorrow night working on 666 with Tatum and piss my wife off some more.

    Since 17 has been his max carry, it would be good to compare 6 carry buckets:

    1-6
    7-12
    13-18

    Maybe I will do this tomorrow for Dayne, Tatum and Anderson from last years stats..
    Haha...thankfully mine went to bed already. I'll mess around with some other way sto look at it later too. Maybe we can convince the Owl to do it
    Go Broncos, make me keep believing this year

    http://www.notmike.com/images/heman.jpg

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by tnedator
    What we really need to look at is 666. Maybe I will blow tomorrow night working on 666 with Tatum and piss my wife off some more.

    Since 17 has been his max carry, it would be good to compare 6 carry buckets:

    1-6
    7-12
    13-18

    Maybe I will do this tomorrow for Dayne, Tatum and Anderson from last years stats..
    Well, I don't want to manually do the sixes but here are the fives from last season:

    Code:
    ATTEMPTS           	ATT	YDS	AVG
    Rush Att. 1-5	70	378	5.4
    Rush Att. 6-10	58	411	7.1
    Rush Att. 11-15	39	104	2.7
    Rush Att. 16-20	6	28	4.7

    FWIW...
    "You can't take the sky from me..."
    ------
    "You can't shake the Devil's hand and say you're only kidding"

  8. #68
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    Feb 2004
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    18,970
    GREAT great work Tnedator and Jav

    Look at the 5's that Jav has provided... it shows that his carries drop off in YPC with carries 11-15... but BAM.. he suddenly gets a boost of energy with carries 16-20?

    Like I said.. and have been backed up by tnedator. Although I have always said that stats don't tell the whole story... NEITHER does the claim that Tatum "falls off the cliff" after 12 carries. Its a completely FALSE statement, and a statement used primarily used by those against Tatum.

    Since Tatum has never had and injury problem, has never had a fumbling problem, has shown that he can break the long run at carry 17 just as easy as he does at 10... he just needs to work on his blitz pick-ups.

    I'm not comparing Tatum to Barry Sanders.... but Sanders always had the criticisms of having plays that lost yardage as he did have that gained them. Sanders would lose, lose, lose...and Bam.. break a 20 yarder. Thats why you KEEP the game breaking RB in the game, and why I HATE the idea of being a COP back.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Javalon
    Well, I don't want to manually do the sixes but here are the fives from last season:

    Code:
    ATTEMPTS           	ATT	YDS	AVG
    Rush Att. 1-5	70	378	5.4
    Rush Att. 6-10	58	411	7.1
    Rush Att. 11-15	39	104	2.7
    Rush Att. 16-20	6	28	4.7

    FWIW...
    Thanks, I want bother wasting time. So, this, along with some of the individual carry stats I posted, show that it is not a foregone conclusion that he wears down. He is clearly capable of both grinding it out and getting the big run after the 10th carry, the dataset is just too small to know if he can do it consistantly.
    The human body has two ends on it: one to create with and one to sit on. Sometimes people get their ends reversed. When this happens they need a kick in the seat of the pants. --- Theodore Roosevelt


  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by MN-Broncofreak
    Still a pretty dramatic drop-off. I still think he's a starter...but probably always in a 2 back system. But if he can't get the tough yards and relies on breaking the long one from time to time to keep his ypc up, he works better as a COP back.

    Hopefully him bulking up a little this year will help some

    Maybe, but I've never believed that Tatum was too small or not strong enough. He is bigger than TD was. His problem is finding the hole running between the tackles. Physically he has everything you could want in a RB.

  11. #71
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    May 2006
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    325
    I still don't think Tater is heading to the Jets, but Suggs isn't either:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5875130

    He failed his physical voiding the deal.

  12. #72
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    First post!!

    I'm interested in this. I'm a bit of a maths geek. I would have thought that is wasn't so much the distribution of his runs over time but the amount of 0,1,2,3 etc yard runs that he makes. For example. Would you prefer him to run 0, 0, 0, 0, 30 for a 6ypc average or 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 for the same average? In the first example you've left the team in difficult passing down situations and maybe not got a first down to get to that 30 yard carry but in the second you've moved the chains consistently and given yourself a better chance of first downs.

    Thats where i think Bell is weak. Too many short carries that stop consistent 1st downs. It's just an impression though.

    And that said, I haven't seen his stats displayed that way. This many 1 yarders, this many 5 yarders etc... And i'd love to see them compared to, say, MA last year...

    Hope my first post isn't out of line??!!

    ben

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennyboy
    I'm interested in this. I'm a bit of a maths geek. I would have thought that is wasn't so much the distribution of his runs over time but the amount of 0,1,2,3 etc yard runs that he makes. For example. Would you prefer him to run 0, 0, 0, 0, 30 for a 6ypc average or 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 for the same average? In the first example you've left the team in difficult passing down situations and maybe not got a first down to get to that 30 yard carry but in the second you've moved the chains consistently and given yourself a better chance of first downs.

    Thats where i think Bell is weak. Too many short carries that stop consistent 1st downs. It's just an impression though.

    And that said, I haven't seen his stats displayed that way. This many 1 yarders, this many 5 yarders etc... And i'd love to see them compared to, say, MA last year...

    Hope my first post isn't out of line??!!

    ben
    Great first post, and I think you've hit the issue just as we have been discussing it. Consistency is what some people would like to see more of if he is going to take over as the feature back. It's great he can break the long run, but so far based on how he has played it is somewhat all or nothing (that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he tends to have shorter carries that are offset by some more huge runs to bring his ypc up).

    I would be more interested in 3rd down conversions and 1st/2nd down ypc as opposed to his overall total. Of course, it is important to keep in mind that he is a playmaker and puts together some game-changing plays. Check out WABroncos thread in Gen Discussions, he's got some interesting stats on type of carries that Tatum has here

    welcome!
    Go Broncos, make me keep believing this year

    http://www.notmike.com/images/heman.jpg

  14. #74
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    Aug 2006
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    Thanks for that.

    I could only get on the single post and not the discussion so i don't know what else was said. But that's cool.

    Anyone know (i've looked unsuccessfully) where you can get a break down of every carry? Are there sites out there?

    Ben

  15. #75
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    Looks like the Jets have taken the RB from San Francisco,,K Barlow.

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