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  1. #31
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    Anyone have shanny's record on opening weekend? Go look it up. The broncos will be fine in this one. Tatum is geared for turf. The Rams D-fence is soft like my grandma. Steven jackson is a legit threat but Im still not sold on thier QB. Broncos take it 28-10

  2. #32
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    I think it'll be close, come down to the end, hopefully in the Bronocos favor.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bronco Timcat
    Anyone have shanny's record on opening weekend? Go look it up. The broncos will be fine in this one. Tatum is geared for turf. The Rams D-fence is soft like my grandma. Steven jackson is a legit threat but Im still not sold on thier QB. Broncos take it 28-10
    Right now were are on a losing streak in opening games.

    I hope for a win but have this one down as a loss.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dark Knight
    Hmmm, let's see....

    - On the road

    - vs a new coach

    - vs a team we should beat

    - vs Scott Linehan



    Of course we don't have to worry about the heat but let's hope we have a better start against the Rams then we did against Miami last year.

    Anyone else thinks this first game looks familair?
    Yep, this one makes me nervous, too.

    But we have two things going for us that we didn't last season:

    1) No heat and humidity

    2) Last year's opening day disaster to learn from


    I think we'll pull this one out.
    "You can't take the sky from me..."
    ------
    "You can't shake the Devil's hand and say you're only kidding"

  5. #35
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    As always as long as the running game is working we will be fine.
    John 11: 25-27

    My Adopt-A-Bronco is D.J. Williams

    http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/2...iamssigwj2.jpg

    Thanks Snk16

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dark Knight
    I don't think our team is built to take advantage of the speed artificial turf brings.

    We don't have the scheme or personel.

    Obviously we do have some fast guys but,

    We always look alot slower out there then the opponents.


    On a side note, I think Ashley Lelie would be a much better artificial turf player than the player he was when he was here.
    So you think he should do well in Atlanta then. If Vick actually gets him the ball.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dark Knight
    Hmmm, let's see....

    - On the road

    - vs a new coach

    - vs a team we should beat

    - vs Scott Linehan



    Of course we don't have to worry about the heat but let's hope we have a better start against the Rams then we did against Miami last year.

    Anyone else thinks this first game looks familair?

    Good points but I feel that our team because of last year will be better prepared for this. Shanny should be ready.

    We need to run the ball. Remember last year Anderson got hurt and that pretty much ended the running game vs Miami. Then Champ got hurt and it was only 7-3 when that happened.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dark Knight
    Hmmm, let's see....

    - On the road

    - vs a new coach

    - vs a team we should beat

    - vs Scott Linehan



    Of course we don't have to worry about the heat but let's hope we have a better start against the Rams then we did against Miami last year.

    Anyone else thinks this first game looks familair?
    Miami has always had a good defense and 120+ degree heat on their side
    Rest in Peace, Darrent and Damien. You will be forever in our thoughts

  9. #39
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    Keys to the game

    My keys to this game are this:

    Denver's Defense vs. Ram's Offense

    Denver's blitzing and how it affects St. Louis's offensive playcalling...or vice versa.

    Even with Orlando Pace, St. Louis has had problems for years with pass protection. Last year they ranked 27th in sacks allowed. They've also had an average to below average Adjusted Sack rate (sacks/pass attempts) for the last three years.

    Point is, if Denver can get pressure on Bulger, with or without blitzing, I think that will minimize the damage in terms of your passing game. Add on top of that the fact that our top trio of corners had solid to decent numbers in the short and intermediate passing zones (as well as deep zones, but that's irrelevant if we get pressure on Bulger).

    What's interesting though is that Linehan called for a lot of extra pass-pro during his time in Miami. He called for the most max-protect in the league, and he also ran a lot of 2 TE sets (both of which St. Louis currently has the personel for IMO). Whether that's a tendency of Linehan or only a result of the Miami offense is a relative unknown (although Miami had a top 5 adjusted sack rate).

    Our DC, Larry Coyer, likes blitzing (quite a bit actually), and he called the most 6 and 7 man blitzes in the league last year. Coyer also brought blitzes from everywhere, as evidenced by the amount of times we blitzed either cornerbacks (5th most in the league) or safeties (Lynch tied for the team lead with 4 sacks). St. Louis will have to be on their toes in terms of pre-snap recognition and blitz pickup by skill players--either by the TE (rookie TE), RB (Jackson's no Edgerrin James), or maybe even a slot receiver in motion (Pittsburgh did this and it worked).

    Stopping the intermediate and deep passing game

    Getting pressure on Bulger seemingly isn't the only key, because I've watched the last few years of Seattle vs. St. Louis matchups...Bulger gets teed off on, but he still goes for 300 yards. Denver has a much better secondary (as well as a better group of coverage-LB's) than Seattle though.

    Clogging up the intermediate middle part of the field will be key IMO. Torry Holt and Isacc Bruce have made a living off running 15 yard comeback/hitch routes in the middle of the field. Last year, Torry Holt ranked 15th in Medium pass%, and he was no. 1 overall in Medium pass success rate. Kevin Curtis, the no. 2 for most of the year after Bruce went down, was 30th in the league in Medium pass%, and he had an above average success rate as well. Marc Bulger threw the 6th highest amount of medium passes and he was the most accurate in the league on those routes. Before you say, "New Coach New Coach!" Know this...Linehan is and always has been a vertical-happy coach. St. Louis' receivers also have superb deep metrics...but our defensive backs match up well if you ask me.

    In terms of deep coverage, Darrent Williams was by far and away our best guy. He ranked in the top 3 in deep coverage success percentage.

    Champ Bailey and Domonique Foxworth were, for the most part, solid across the board in the deep and medium area.

    Denver's pass D ranked 5th overall using DVOA, and had solid DVOA numbers against no. 1, 2, and 3 receivers as well as TE's.

    Champ may again be left on an island against either Holt or Bruce, but that will allow Coyer to give extra help to either Darrent or Dom...which is a good thing if you ask me.

    What's really surprising is how well our safeties covered the deep and medium zones. Sam Brandon, who primarily covered the opponents TE in the big nickel package (and it showed), was arguably the best cover safety in the league against deep and intermediate passes. He was also above average against short passes, but I don't think that's important for this game. John Lynch was not beat once deep last year in primary coverage, leading to his no. 1 overall deep coverage ranking. Lynch also featured a top 5 intermediate ranking. Nick Ferguson was also well above average in both areas.

    Admittedly, neither starting safety has the athleticism or speed to be a true elite coverage safety. However, I think there's clear evidence that says that both guys can defend the pass within Coyer's scheme, and that's all that's needed. The numbers don't lie...

    Given their elite speed and athleticism for the position, our linebackers are well equipped in coverage. DJ Williams suffered a bit of a falloff in coverage last year, but he's got the tools to be great. Al Wilson is clearly one of the best coverage 'backers in the league. Ian Gold put up a solid stop rate last year as well, but his strongsuit is shooting gaps and rushing the passer.

    Defending against Steven Jackson

    Steven Jackson is your prototypical starting back. He's big (6-2, 230), fast (4.45 coming out of Oregon State), and powerful.

    However, he's been an inconsistent talent. He can be a force at times (179 yards against Jacksonville), or an utter embarrasment at times (less than 100 yards in two games vs. San Fran last year).

    Every scouting report I've been reading (no, not ESPIN) points out that Jackson has below average vision and does not run with patience behind the line. According to Mediator12, Jackson led the league in negative yard running plays last year, and after film analysis of the team's pre-season games, he doesn't think they've improved much either.

    This could play into our hands as well because, as we all know, Coyer's scheme calls for the DL to clog up lanes and fill gaps. If we can do that--get Jackson to string plays out or run to the wrong hole--I think our LB's can finish off any run and limit the Rams ground game as a whole.

    Despite the presence of an elite talent like Orlando Pace, the Ram's offensive line ranks poorly in run metrics. Not one spot on the line averaged over 4.5 YPC. Both tackles are inconsistent, and the interior is made up of old-and-busted holdovers from the glory days. Not impressed if you ask me.

    Denver's Offense vs. Ram's Defense

    Denver passing against Ram's secondary

    Key phrase: Physical mismatch.

    Without even looking at the numbers, I believe our receivers are too much of a physical mismatch for the St. Louis DB's. Not one of their top 4 CB's are above 6 feet tall. If Javon Walker can get in a man coverage situation...look out. Rod Smith should be able to have his way with their corners, regardless of the size difference. And then, if Marshall is ready to go, you've got a monster in the slot against someone who's 5-10, 180. Utter carnage awaits!

    If you want to read about the St. Louis pass defense metrics, I'd advise against it...it's ugly. Their top two corners in terms of stop rate are gone, and their replacements (Travis Fisher, Fakhir Brown, Jerametrius Butler) aren't much more impressive. I feel Butler is a legit starter, based off previous observation. But, go back to the physical mismatch. Anyways, last year, St. Louis had the 28th overall DVOA ranking against the pass last year, and they were the worst in the league against no. 1 receivers.

    And, you may be asking, "well, if you're going to talk about physical mismatches with their DB's, what about Darrent?" My answer is this: when was the last time you saw either Torry Holt or Isacc Bruce get physical with a DB. Those guys are finesse as it gets. Not saying they're incapable, it's just not their game IMO.

    Our receiving TE's (scratch that--receiving TE) are somewhat of an unknown/non-factor. If Scheffler's ready to be a weapon, he could be huge in this game. Brandon Chillar did not have very good pass defense metrics last year, although the addition in Corey Chavous may help significantly.

    Oh, and don't worry, Jake's good enough to tear this D to shreds.

    Denver run against Ram's defense

    .......'nuff said.

    Lol, just kiddin'.

    As you all know, Denver had the best run blocking line in all of football last year. Many of us also think that the question who the starting RB will be is irrelevant...Denver runs the ball.

    According to the numbers, Anthony Hargrove was the teams best run defender last year. Not surprising, as Hargrove is an athletic, big-bodied player who could end up being the "next one" at DE. He's very projectable. However, who are you going to take in a one-on-one back alley brawl? Matt Lepsis, or this Hargrove fellow?

    St. Louis' offseason additions were made with the run defense in mind. Will Witherspoon, La'Roi Glover, and Corey Chavous are widely viewed as improvements. However, thanks to more analysis by Mediator, that may not be the case. La'Roi Glover is an obvious improvement, but the other two have been underwhelming thus far. Will Witherspoon has been a bit raw in his move to MLB. According to Med, Witherspoon looked horrible during his time in the pre-season. Corey Chavous is simply not an improvement over Adam Archuleta...especially in run defense. According to Football Prospectus, Chavous' physical skills are clearly eroding and he no longer has the range he once had. He's never been a stalwart in the box, defending the run. The two incumbents, Pisa Tinoisamoa and Brandon Chillar, are adequate against the run. Tinoisamoa is great in pursuit however, and will have to be sealed off on the backside of runs.

    Their other starting tackle, Jimmy Kennedy, has been inconsistent or just bad throughout his career. He's a huge body, but he was sent to the bench frequently last year for poor play. If he continues to play poorly, he may find himself in Denver next year ( ) because this year is seen as a make-or-break year for him.

    If you ask me, I'd like to see Tatum get the start for this game. St. Louis is a mistake-prone team on defense. You can't make mistakes against 4.3 speed. Regardless of who gets the start, I think we'll move the ball on the ground without problem.
    Last edited by WABronco; 09-07-2006 at 11:47 AM.

  10. #40
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    cont...

    Special Teams

    Both teams have underwhelming return games.

    We may have the edge in the punting game, even without Sauerbrun. Their punter had the lowest average punt yardage of the pre-season.

    Elam and Wilkins are a wash, but Wilkins has kicked in that dome for a while now.

    St. Louis' coverage units have long been below average. They ranked 23rd in punt coverage and 29th in kick coverage last year.

    (please not Charlie Adams, please not Charlie Adams...)

    Looking at just the matchups, I like our chances. If Denver can somehow limit that passing game, there's really no other obstacle IMHO (I'm not yet afraid of Steven Jackson and I dropped St. Louis D in my FFL in about 2 seconds after it was autopicked). Easier said than done, and many of us Denver fans have grown accustomed to trashing Coyer for his shoddy playcalling.

    I must say however, I actually feel comfortable with Coyer's scheme going into this game. We'll see...

    Overall keys:

    1) Exploit their poor pass protection

    2) Rely on your DB's to limit their specialized passing game

    3) Rely on your front seven to do their job

    4) Control the ball and keep their offense on the sidelines as much as possible

    5) Take advantage of their poor ST's and win the field position battle

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    All righty. I wouldn't say I'm overconfident going into this game, but I do feel fairly comfortable considering the matchups.

    For a real good scouting report, check out Med's.

    I tried to keep it as straight forward as possible, but if you need assistance understanding certain terms...go to footballoutsiders.com

    Whadda ya think? Is this overly "CAPTAIN OBVIOUS"? By no means am I claiming to be some scouting expert...I just thought it'd be fun to give it a shot for once and make some theories. If you think I missed something, I probably did...just give me a holla and I'll try to fill it in as best I can.

    BTW, I used material from both KC Joyner and Football Prospectus in making this report. I also borrowed a few quotes from all-aroud-good-guy Mediator12 from the Orange Mane.
    Last edited by WABronco; 09-07-2006 at 11:59 AM.

  11. #41
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    Very nice report

    Edit: CP as soon as it will let me give you one
    Last edited by hilife; 09-07-2006 at 12:00 PM.

  12. #42
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    Excellent read, and analysis. CP on the way!

  13. #43
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    Nice analysis!!

    Feel free to bring it over the the MHR as well....

  14. #44
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    I would also add that the Rams DE's are obvious candidates for some bootleg trickery...Hargrove moreso than Little. Both guys are aggressive upfield rushers.

  15. #45
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    Feel free to add your own thoughts as well...

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